I'm feeling either The Good German or The Good Shepherd in the BP 5.

Me too. It's a really great movie and I'd love to see it in the top 5 (more than Little Miss Sunshine or The Departed, for example)

I'd say The Good German can be ruled out. It seems reactions will be too mixed and its true appeal, as an incredibly strict homage to Casablanca and The Third Man, too limited to become a heavyweight Oscar contender.

The more I think about Volver, the more it reminds me of something James L Brook would have directed.

The Good German is not making it, I hear reception has been decidedly mediocre so far.

I also doubt it about The Good Shepherd, which doesn't seem to be setting the world on fire either.

Still thinking Dreamgirls, Departed, Queen, United 93 and Little Miss Sunshine.

To be fair, no one will see it until early December, a la Munich last year. It very well may set the world on fire once it reaches the eyes of general viewers.

Anywho, here's where I stand...

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
The Queen
United 93

One movie I'm paying attention to is Notes on a Scandal. This might be a surprise and knock out United 93, which doesn't seem to have as much passion behind it as most expected. It certainly has the right cast and director.

I heard there were screenings that didn't go incredibly well. Maybe I'm wrong.

There were a few test screening reviews from non-professional critics. They were mostly positive, though most agreed it was too long.

I'm still not buying this "Dreamgirls" stuff...

I wish I could rule out Dreamgirls, but it's obvious it'll receive a nod. AMPAS loves this kind of glitzy, splashy uber-musical and buzz is red-hot. I could even see it winning Best Picture (with Best Director going to Scorsese).

I'll wait a little more to say something on The Good German but I still doubt The Good Shepherd will be a player.

I think an Eastwood movie will end up making it in. Don't rule out Babel. I feel like it's last year's Walk the Line, which many agree was probably 6th in line to get a nod.

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/23278?semperex-search

The first review really, really loved it. The second thought it was an incoherent, emotionless, boring and boringly filmed mess. You're the film's mascot, where are the multiple good reviews? Even the first review is pretty suspicious. Any reviewer that's going to go ahead and say "this could be the Godfather of CIA films" sounds pretty plant-ish to me.

OscarWatch is saying that Babel still has momentum, which... I mean, I guess I'll believe them, but... I don't know. I still don't think it's making it.

I'm thinking neither The Good German nor Shepherd are making it now.

Iwo Jima seems to be a wild card of sorts.

FOOF certainly won't with it's poor reception and bombing (has a movie that's bombed that badly ever been nominated for BP before?) Letters from Iwa Jima is going to have to have across-the-board raves all unanimously saying it's a significant improvement over Flags great reviews, what with it's last minute release date and from the Japanese side POV. Otherwise I think they'll really just overlap.

And yeah, Babel is way, way dead. It's negative on RT with Cream of the Crop, and really dissapointed at the box office, it's almost out of all the theaters in Portland already! What at ALL does it have going for it that Walk the Line did? WTL had damn good reviews, was a biopic of a legend, had two performances that were at the time considered frontrunners for the Oscar, and a higher box office performance then any of the other films that were nominated. And it STILL didn't get the nomination.

Would Universal truly send a plant review to AICN for a prestige film aimed at upscale adults? I'd be more suspicious if it was a glowing review of, say, Tenacious D in: The Pick of Destiny or Turistas. And I understand the comparison to The Godfather, seeing as both films deal with a family being torn apart over the years by the trials and tribulations the patriarch faces due to his job. Plus, Francis Ford Coppola was once set to direct The Good Shepherd.

Oh, and I don't see Letters from Iwo Jima receiving a Best Picture nomination. So many award enthusiasts are desperate to throw Eastwood's name in the race. But as others have said, it'll be hurt by the Japanese P.O.V. angle and intense competition from its sister film. Plus, its release seems to be rather low-profile due to the eleventh-hour date fiddling.

Studios have plants for all sorts of films, not just ones aimed at teenagers. Y'know just because I reveal another weakness for this movie doesn't mean you have to try and counter it, you're only making your film look worse.