All right, I haven't really been keeping us with awards stuff this past month or so, so if someone would like to fill me in here real quick that'd be great:

So it seemed as though Helen Mirren was a shoo-in after all the buzz the film got the week it came out, but now suddenly The Queen itself is a contender?

Has there been any early word on Babel?

And what's the situation like for Flags of Our Fathers right now? It seems to still be in the running, but the reviews up at RT thus far aren't hugely promsing.

The Queen's early box-office is more than splendid. The reviews are the best since...I don't even know when...if it wasn't for one negative, it would be the second-best reviewed film ever at RT. The screenplay, the directing and the acting are getting praised as well. So, yeah, a BP nom seems very likely at this point.

Updated:

1. The Queen
2. Dreamgirls
3. The Departed
4. United 93
5. Flags of Our Fathers
6. The Good German
7. Babel
8. Volver
9. Little Miss Sunshine
10. Little Children

Pre-season big three plus two critic favs; that'll be fun. I feel the buzz is turning against Babel now, with The Queen dominating the headlines and its own reviews starting to become more divisive; it could suffer the same problem as Little Children has.

1. The Good German
2. The Departed
3. Dreamgirls
4. The Good Shepherd
5. Babel
6. The Queen
7. Blood Diamond
8. Flags of Our Fathers
9. United 93
10. Children of Men

OH FUCK IT.

1. The Queen
2. Dreamgirls
3. The Departed
4. Babel
5. Volver
6. The Good German
7. Flags of Our Fathers
8. United 93
9. The Good Shepard
10. The Pursuit of Happyness

New rankings!

1. The Departed (Warner Bros.)
2. The Queen (Miramax)
3. Dreamgirls (DreamWorks/Paramount)
4. United 93 (Universal)
5. Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)
6. Babel (Paramount Vantage)
7. Volver (Sony Picture Classics)
8. The Pursuit of Happyness (Sony)
9. The Good German (Warner Bros.)
10. Flags of Our Fathers (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Well, if even Jon recognizes The Departed's superiority, the win is sealed

Ok, Jon, I have to ask. What happened to your The Departed = King Kong stance that you had so much convinction about? I am dying to hear what it was that changed your mind.

Finally decided the B.O. was going to reach the mark I felt it needed - $130M. It'll take a couple well-timed rereleases (Christmas and post-Oscar noms), but it'll make it. The legs are the kind that Hollywood can't stop buzzing about. Good buzz, fo course, unlike some films I always doubted. . . *Eyes #10*

1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. United 93
5. Notes on a Scandel
6. Little Children
7. Little Miss Sunshine
8. Babel
9. Volver
10. The Good German

This year is definitley better than last's.

My rankings:
1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. Volver
5. Babel
6. Little Children
7. Little Miss Sunshine
8. Flags of our Fathers
9. Bobby
10. United 93

I don't know. I'm fairly confident Volver will make it. I don't think Flags will make it anymore. I have my doubts about Bobby and Babel and if Little Children doesn't gross more at BO, I'll have some doubts about that too. I think Little Miss Sunshine might sneak in.

Volver is Spain's entry into the Foerign Language Oscar and it will probably win that.

I see close to no chance for Volver to get Best Pic recognition if they're already going to reward it or at least nominate it in another category.

It looks to be the most accessible and mainstream of Almodovar's movies, it's getting great reviews, it has perhaps the most popular actress to star in one of his movies to date and it is being released after the Viva Pedro! series so it's bound to be quite high profile. I see what you're saying, but I think the timing and conditions are right for this movie. At least they seem to be, at the moment.

I think Babel is almost out of the race at this point...

1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. United 93
5. Little Miss Sunshine
6. Flags of Our Fathers
7. Volver
8. The Good German
9. The Good Shepherd
19. Bobby/Babel

I am pretty certain on the first four. Two crowd pleasers and two critics favorites...

1. The Departed
2. Children of Men
3. The Good Shepard
4. Dreamgirls
5. Little Miss Sunshine
6. The Good German
7. The Prestige
8. The Devil Wears Prada
9. The Pursuit of Happiness
10. Babel

Yeah, Babel's out.

I haven't been keeping up with Oscar tracking as much as in years past, but my guesses as of now:

1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. United 93
5. Volver

I pretty much keep the same 5 as before. Top 4 + Notes on a Scandal.

http://www.worldofkj.com/awards/predictions.php

I'm surprised that my favorite film of the year, United 93, which is on many other people's BP nominee lists, isn't in my top 5. Rumor has it that I make my picks due to what I like, and not objectively.

Mav, wouldn't Borat be counted as Adapted from the TV show?

That's where I originally had it, but there is confusion about that from everyone right now. That's what I thought it was until I saw everyone else online listing it as adapted, so I figured they'd heard something I didn't, and if it was wrong, we'd all be wrong.

The Oscar Watch forums have it at Original. I definitely see it as Adapted, myself, and it's the weaker category, so if the studio is going to campaign for it, Adapted is probably the way to go.

I would agree. The competition is so fierce this year in the original screenplay category. Oscarwatch, Movie City News, etc... They are all listing it as original. I didn't look at first and had to do a quick and quiet edit because I didn't want to look like an ass while the rest had it right, but yeah, I consider it adapted. I have a feeling that's where it'll eventually be. I said in my above post they were listing it as adapted, I meant orginal.

1. Dreamgirls
2. The Departed
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Flags of Our Fathers (or Letters from Iwo Jima???)
6. Little Miss Sunshine
7. Volver
8. Little Children
9. The Good Shepherd
10. United 93

1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. United 93
5. The Pursuit of Happyness

6. Little Miss Sunshine
7. Volver
8. Letters from Iwo Jima
9. The Good Shepherd
10. Children of Men

Commentary Here.