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 What are United 93's Oscar chances? 
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Lord of filth

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the limey wrote:
I can't believe this is a likely Oscar nominee. I don't care how good the reviews are, how does a movie with a piddling $30 million gross suddenly become a contender?

There's nothing new about nominated films that make very, very little money. Example: The Hours only made like $35 million.

It would spell trouble if it was being touted as a potential winner... but as a potential nominee, it's really not that strange.

Having films nominated with low appeal to the general audience is nothing new for the Academy. Having all 5 of the films fit that description was really rare, and the interesting thing about last year, but to have one or two underperforming but highly acclaimed films be nominated despite the low commercial appeal of the film happens nearly every year. I'm not saying U93 will be one, but there will be one like that this year too.


Wed Jun 07, 2006 4:22 pm
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Rod wrote:
Rod wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close :)


It has a Metacritic SCore of 89.

I don't really even think it's guranteed to cross $30 million though, I think it's 99% sure...but there's the slight chance that being such a high profile film, and with the controversy sorrounding it it could have pretty steep drops.

Its room for expansion makes it almost impossible, but liek I said...slight chance.


Make that a big chance :P


:hahaha:

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Wed Jun 07, 2006 4:35 pm
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After seeing World Trade Center, I can assure you that United 93 has no chance for any major noms (and technical noms is that much less likely).


Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:53 am
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alex young wrote:
After seeing World Trade Center, I can assure you that United 93 has no chance for any major noms (and technical noms is that much less likely).


You've seen World Trade Center?

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Tue Aug 01, 2006 2:22 pm
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Chances are going to be pretty slim, methinks. Unless the academy feels an obligation as good citizens to honor such a brilliant film (the best of the year, noticeably!), it'll be an uphill climb. I was interviewed by the news after I saw this on opening day, by the way.

It *could* be the indy nom selection, but it's lack of anybody of note in the cast (except that lady from the sitcom Wings who had about 2 seconds of screen time), and it's lackluster box office and April release date won't be doing it many favors. At least Crash had star talent up and down, but that's not the case here, so unless we have some serious letdowns this Oscar season, and unless "America" is seen as the star, I don't look for it.

I hope I'm wrong, though, because it was a masterpiece!


Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:21 pm
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Lord of filth

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I agree with Maverikk. On the flip side though, I don't see a lot at the end of the year which looks promising yet that I would pick as the real "critical" choice ahead of United 93. It's definately going to show up on the top 10 lists and the end of the year critic awards.

It has the aura of an "important" movie and I think that's it's biggest card. Never a sure thing though.

It doesn't hurt that it's mid-August and it is the ONLY film this year that could be considered a Best Picture nominee.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:37 pm
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andaroo wrote:
I agree with Maverikk. On the flip side though, I don't see a lot at the end of the year which looks promising yet that I would pick as the real "critical" choice ahead of United 93. It's definately going to show up on the top 10 lists and the end of the year critic awards.

It has the aura of an "important" movie and I think that's it's biggest card. Never a sure thing though.

It doesn't hurt that it's mid-August and it is the ONLY film this year that could be considered a Best Picture nominee.


Little Miss Sunshine. :smile:

But, no, I know that has no chance, unfortunately.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:44 pm
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Libs wrote:
andaroo wrote:
I agree with Maverikk. On the flip side though, I don't see a lot at the end of the year which looks promising yet that I would pick as the real "critical" choice ahead of United 93. It's definately going to show up on the top 10 lists and the end of the year critic awards.

It has the aura of an "important" movie and I think that's it's biggest card. Never a sure thing though.

It doesn't hurt that it's mid-August and it is the ONLY film this year that could be considered a Best Picture nominee.


Little Miss Sunshine. :smile:

But, no, I know that has no chance, unfortunately.


Why not? Almost universally lauded by critics, $50+ million box-office even outside of the award season, good WoM, feel-good movie...

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Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:46 pm
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I don't understand. Little Miss Sunshine has made $5 million at this point.

Fox Searchlight also has The Last King of Scotland I believe.


Last edited by andaroo1 on Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:56 pm
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andaroo wrote:
I don't understand. Little Miss Sunshine has made $5 million at this point.


I already make legit projections :D

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Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:56 pm
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andaroo wrote:
I don't understand. Little Miss Sunshine has made $5 million at this point.

Fox Searchlight also has The Last King of Scotland I believe.


It will make over $50M.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:58 pm
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Lord of filth

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Dr. Lecter wrote:
andaroo wrote:
I don't understand. Little Miss Sunshine has made $5 million at this point.


I already make legit projections :D

While I'm looking forward to LMS, I'm not confident that it will really be a hit with the Box Office like that. If it is pretty much a hit like that then maybe. But it hasn't materialized yet I guess.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:59 pm
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andaroo wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
andaroo wrote:
I don't understand. Little Miss Sunshine has made $5 million at this point.


I already make legit projections :D

While I'm looking forward to LMS, I'm not confident that it will really be a hit with the Box Office like that. If it is pretty much a hit like that then maybe. But it hasn't materialized yet I guess.


It is, so far, holding up much better than Garden State, Thank You for Smoking and Sideways were at their same points. Word-of-mouth is pretty much out of this world.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:01 pm
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Lord of filth

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Hmmm. Well maybe. We'll see. It really does need BO though.

I'm not afraid of revising my statements :)

I hope it opens here next week, I can't believe it's not playing in Seattle yet.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:02 pm
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andaroo wrote:
Hmmm. Well maybe. We'll see. It really does need BO though.

I'm not afraid of revising my statements :)

I hope it opens here next week, I can't believe it's not playing in Seattle yet.


It's opening in 600+ theaters on Friday and then 1500+ on August 25, so you would definitely have it the 25th at the latest.


Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:06 pm
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I'm fairly sure that U93 will get a nom.

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Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:28 am
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I feel like I'm the only one who thinks a BP nom isn't going to happen.


Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:47 pm
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Yeah, it wont. There will be many other critics darling films coming out by the end of the year. U93 came out way too early and did mediocre business, unless the buzz picks up by the end of the year I dont see it getting a nomination. It has a slight chance to be the 5th spot filler.

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Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:04 pm
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I don't think it will get a BP nod. I think it has a good chance at editing and cinemotogrophy and an outside chance at BD but that is it.


Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:53 pm
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loyalfromlondon wrote:
I feel like I'm the only one who thinks a BP nom isn't going to happen.


I don't think it will, but I hope I'm wrong. Of course, you not liking it does increase it's chances of getting in! :funny:


Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:49 pm
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Maverikk wrote:
loyalfromlondon wrote:
I feel like I'm the only one who thinks a BP nom isn't going to happen.


I don't think it will, but I hope I'm wrong. Of course, you not liking it does increase it's chances of getting in! :funny:


Yeah, I need to reverse that trend :hahaha:

3 years is a longggggggggg time


Wed Aug 16, 2006 5:21 pm
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If United 93 gets nominated for or wins anything, it'll be more a sign of the times than anything to do with quality. It exists purely to serve as a cathartic release for the type of people who cry about events such as Columbine in interviews despite not knowing anyone involved or even living in the same state.

Although I'd probably forgive it a Razzie or two.


Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:54 pm
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Snrub wrote:
If United 93 gets nominated for or wins anything, it'll be more a sign of the times than anything to do with quality. It exists purely to serve as a cathartic release for the type of people who cry about events such as Columbine in interviews despite not knowing anyone involved or even living in the same state.

Although I'd probably forgive it a Razzie or two.


That's a fairly dumb statement given the fact that this movie is one of the best reviewd films of this decade.

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Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:31 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Snrub wrote:
If United 93 gets nominated for or wins anything, it'll be more a sign of the times than anything to do with quality. It exists purely to serve as a cathartic release for the type of people who cry about events such as Columbine in interviews despite not knowing anyone involved or even living in the same state.

Although I'd probably forgive it a Razzie or two.


That's a fairly dumb statement given the fact that this movie is one of the best reviewd films of this decade.


It's only because its about 9/11.

Haven't we been down this road before.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:12 am
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loyalfromlondon wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Snrub wrote:
If United 93 gets nominated for or wins anything, it'll be more a sign of the times than anything to do with quality. It exists purely to serve as a cathartic release for the type of people who cry about events such as Columbine in interviews despite not knowing anyone involved or even living in the same state.

Although I'd probably forgive it a Razzie or two.


That's a fairly dumb statement given the fact that this movie is one of the best reviewd films of this decade.


It's only because its about 9/11.

Haven't we been down this road before.


And WTC didn't get a single 100 on Metacritic because. . .?


Thu Aug 17, 2006 10:06 am
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