I think this will be the company for BP...

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
King Kong
Match Point

I hope not.

Why not? Brokeback Mountain looks ike a definite right now with all the buzz and the awards from minor guilds. Crash is a fairly good film that seems like it revived all of its award buzz, Match Point is also a good film, one of Allen's better recently, and Academy loves Allen. King Kong is looking to become one of the best reviewed films of all year, and a big budget movie is often nominated to get more attention to the Oscars. And Good Night and Good Luck is a great movie so...

Sure there are movies I'd like to see get nominated, but looking objectivly I think these are the movies that have higher chances than others to get nominated.

In terms of Oscar, business and history, that's a shitty 5.

Here's why. You could take out Kong and add _______ film and have yourself a damn fine Independent Spirit Awards lineup.

Oscars are all about scope and opulence and grandeur. Crash, GLGN, Match Point, and BBM don't fit the bill. One or two in the mix, fine, but 4, that's death.

I disagree on the Crash is a fialry good film,t he script was horrid.

I agree with Loyal, aside from that one year, the Academy has not been a rehash of ISQ, they always through in some pictures. Hence why people see The New World as being a contender, and Kong..the Academy lilkers grandeur. Rarely do the award the subtle role, look at Sean Penn's win over Bill Murray for Best actor,t he Mystic River role was much showier then the LIT role. The Academy likes to nominate and award epic.

But the thing is, he DIDNT take out Kong.

As far as I'm concerned, all this year needs is Kong to make up for anything else...

I can't really see Munich and Walk the Line missing out, but if they are taken out of the picture, I see nothing wrong with that line up. (well, besides Crash being pretty suck, but you must admit it was a hit and the general public LOVED it (in my experience, anyway)...)

Match Point is a long shot, and Crash is looking better then is used to it, but I liked ot hope its shitty script will override the fact that the genreal public loved it. The general public loved alot of good films. Crash just might sneak in there, to my dismay, but I sitll think it needs to sustain these critics till voting time comes. I do think Crash is helped int hat its more mainstream then the other indie films.

Yes the Academy loves Allen, but where is match points' buzz. I maybe looking forward to this film, but its chances are a greater long shot.

I hope his list is not the film tally, b/c I'd like the five good films up there.

I guess this belongs here:

Walk The Line
King Kong
Crash
Munich
Brokeback

In order of certainty of the nod.

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Walk the Line
3. Good Night, and Good Luck
4. Munich
5. King Kong

Alt: A History of Violence

Locks:
Brokeback Mountain (=)
Munich (-)
Walk the Line (-)
Good Night, and Good Luck (=)

Possible contenders:
King Kong (-)
A History of Violence (+)
Crash (+)

Probably out:
Capote (=)
The Constant Gardener (+)
Match Point (-)
The New World (-)

1. Brokeback
2. Good Night and Good Luck
3. Walk the Line
4. Munich
5. Crash


Other possibilities: King Kong, A History of Violence, Match Point and The Constant Gardener.

Capote, Cinderella Man and The New World seem to be out of the question...

What will it mean if Cinderella Man gets a PGA nom?

To me, nothing. I actually give Cinderella Man a decent chance of getting a PGA nom, but as I said in the other thread, it'll just be another Road to Perdition or Cold Mountain.

why is Cinderalla Man out of the question. Didn't everyuone say the same about Seabiscuit?

The critics' stuff doesn't always mean 100% what the academy goes for.

seabiscuit had better box office #s and a golden globe nomination.

I keep getting the feeling that Walk The Line will miss out. There's just no real love for it. But I keep telling myself that that won't happen. I don't know, I think it's a possibility.

Right now I'd say:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich
Walk The Line
King Kong

I also have a feeling Line might not get in, so to me it's not a lock, but close thanks to there not being anything else that could REALLY damage it's chances.

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Walk The Line

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Crash
Walk The Line
And crossing my fingers for A History of Violence. But most likely, Munich will sneak in.

At the moment, I have:

Munich
Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash

What a weird year.

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Crash
A History of Violence

I keep wavering between AHOV and Munich for the last nomination though. My brain says Munich but my gut says AHOV.

I agree. I have this sinking feeling in my stomache that Walk the Line will not get a BP nomination. Which I'm taking a little bit hard because it was one of my favorite movies of the year. I think it'll be

- Brokeback Mountain (For Sure)
- Capote
- Good Night, And Good Luck
- Crash

And then for the fifth slot, I feel like it's a toss up between Walk the Line and Munich.

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich

Munich is in.

The toss up will be between WTL and Capote

Brokeback
Good Night
Crash
Munich
Capote

No WTL...