Frost/Nixon is down to 83% at RT, and more importantly, its average is now just 7.0. I think the BFCA score is a fluke and still don't see it as a serious BP contender. The reviews for Doubt have more passion from what I see.

10 100s for Milk at MC with 34 reviews in, 85 average.

Yeah, I think all that needs to happen is that Penn needs to pull ahead of Rourke and Eastwood in a big way (Win a large amount of critics awards, preferably), and it's the first legit frontrunner this season.

Repeat of 2001?

A biopic with the Best Actor frontrunner (who didn't wind up winning) beats one of the most acclaimed blockbusters of all-time?

Possible.

In any case, I really really don't see Slumdog Millionaire winning it.

EVERYONE CHILL THE FUCK OUT

YOU DONT NEED TO BE AFRAID ANYMORE

Looks like Eastwood and Torino is a big no-go. David Poland is saying it stinks; so, too, is that douche Kris Tapley, who's throwing the word "razzie" around.

Doubt got its first rotten review at RT, while Revolutionary Road is at 100% albeit with 5 reviews so far.

Meanwhile, The Wrestler...

http://64.14.20.205/m/the_wrestler/

And Milk is back up to 94% at RT

Thanks.
What this tells us:
-RR will not be poorly received: Michael Shannon and Winslet are locked.
-The Wrestler is very much in contention for a nom. Actually, I think I'd predict it. Even if it doesn't end up with unanimous praise, it has the passion, and the "incredible actor performance = BP nom thing" (Rourke is locked, but we knew that already)

The question is which director will they snub? IF The BP line-up is RR, The Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk and TDK I really can't see them snubbing any of the directors here.

Current BP Predictions (12/2):
1. Milk - Lock
2. Slumdog - Lock
3. Benjamin Button (90%)
4. TDK
5. The Wrestler

6. The Reader
7. Frost/Nixon
8. Revolutionary Road
9. Doubt

The Reader will do well with older voters and female voters, I think. RR is looking more and more like Doubt...strong showing in acting, maybe a screenplay, but not much else, but it'll probably go 3 on acting (versus 2 or 3 for Doubt), but have a slightly better chance at a BP nom.

Mendes probably. He won't have a unified Brit block because of Boyle, and I think the screenplay problems with RR (from the clips I've seen so far) will get written off as his fault. Also, Leo and Kate are so consistently great that he probably won't get much of a bonus for "getting great performances out of his actors."

Probably...but only per default I suppose.

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009498-reader/

80% for The Reader with 5 reviews. Reviews are good, but none is really overwhelming.

WB is no longer reexpanding TDK in January.

That's a big blow for it, IMO. Doesn't show much confidence either. Seriously, WTF, Warner?

Indeed, what the fuck. The only film that's strengthening much right now is Milk, what are they afraid of?

Ben Button's score isn't very good, but then again, Gump got divisive reviews too. It just needs passionate support from a sizable minority and to a lesser extent the public.

Yeah, but Gump grossed $300 million.

Over ten years ago.

Starting to look like TDK might not enter the race at all outside of Ledger. We'll see, but I dunno. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a non-factor... at the end of the day it still is a comic book film... it was never as locked as we liked to pretend.

Well, yeah, it has never been a lock. Per default. But chances are still there.

At the very least I think it will grab:

Best Supporting Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Adapted Screenplay

And even IF the film is snubbed, I think Nolan's chances are still good.

I'd be shocked if they gave it less than 7 nominations. Dick fucking Tracy got that many.



Good point. Ergh, I don't want to see it out of the BP race either, because I'm actually looking forward to it.

But between the sets, cinematography, make-up, etc., that movie was essentially tech porn. In the techs the only categories TDK is really set for would be Cinematography and the Sound categories.

But I think the reaction to WB's decision to cancel the rerelease is kinda ridiculous? I mean, a major re-expansion for a movie that's been out on DVD for a month would probably be a failing investment, money wise, and the film has already gained enough awards traction on its own, I think. All it needs is the Guilds, and it's good to go.

It kind of makes me wonder if they are getting cold feet over its chances.

Don't forget, though, that TDK's also one of the strongest contenders in Editing as well. And it's not like Makeup and Visual Effects are strong categories this year.

I wouldn't call TDK a lock for makeup. Not even for a nomination. That category is always so random that I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Absolutely, but that's not what I meant.

Hello, New here. Wanted to say Dark Knight is being released.

http://www.superherohype.com/news/batma ... hp?id=7859

Is Langella a guaranteed nomination or will he still need continued buzz and awards to stay alive?