So from what I gather, the 1980s were big for "foreign-English" films?

Bertolucci was still a very important Director, though. And like I said, the Communism angle made it very, very relevant.

But for bittersweet/relevant films, it really does look like Milk is the one to go for. I don't think it's likely to win, but it's still very possible.

That's why I said Milk isn't likely to win, but it seems to be heading for quite a bit of financial success and it'll certainly be talked about for a while now. That's more oomph than Slumdog at the moment.

I think the "gay" was Milk's biggest drawback in general, but it seems to be more a case of Philadelphia than Brokeback Mountain. The sexual angle's supposed to be rather light, apparently.

I believe there's still a lot of gay content for your average "mainstream" film, but the true story aspect softens that some, as "Gay Biopic" >>>>> "Gay Western".

I don't know who this Lodge fella is at In Contention is but here are his picks:

Best Picture: “Milk”
Best Director: Gus van Sant, “Milk”
Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
Best Art Direction: “Australia”
Best Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Costume Design: “Australia”
Best Film Editing: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music - Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music - Original Song: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Documentary Feature: “Blessed is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Everlasting Moments”

Lots of weird stuff in there (starting with the last two categories) and I'm not buying the Milk sweep. I'm going to watch the film tomorrow afternoon so maybe I'll be sipping the kool-aid this time Saturday.

Is Heath Ledger more of a lock for a win than DDL and Javier Bardem were last year? I'd certainly say so.

And as for Slumdog Millionaire:

I'm in the "it doesn't have the Oscar-stuff to win BP" camp.

It will make some good money, probably around $60-70 million, but it doesn't have the same going for it as Crash and NCFOM did.

No Country for Old Men had the Coens and say what you will, but they were and still ARE bigger names than Boyle. They had a BP nominee in the past and their film had at least one win LOCKED (Bardem) and was also rather tech-heavy. ALSO, among last year's crop it actually did very well box-office-wise (only Juno grossed more).

http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/n ... %20country

It had much MUCH more passion going for it. Slumdog Millionaire currently has 8 100s reviews, NOCFM has 20.


I know review don't matter that much, but they give an idea of the passion behind a film.

Since 1996 only three movies have had less 100-scores than SD has right now - Crash, A Beautiful Mind and Gladiator. A case can be made for each.


First of all, Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind were box-office behemoths, grossing over $160 million each, something that Slumdog Millionaire won't have- A Beautiful Mind was as Oscar-y a movie as it gets - a mentally ill genius biopic! And it was a contender for two actings awards.

Gladiator was directed by a previously Oscar-nominated director, it was epic, had tons of technical noms and also two acting noms.


Now Crash is the trickiest. The main thing it ahd - it won somewhat per default because its main cmpetitior was a gay cowboys romance. What helped it as well were the HUGE cast and the IMPORTANT topic. Slumdon doesn't have either. Also, Haggis was coming off the Million Dollar Baby benevolence.

And I'm not saying that it can't win, but simply that its chances are well behind Milk's, Button's and even TDK's at the moment.

Doubt gets a 76 from BFCA

Hellz yea! Fuck Doubt!

oh noessssssssss Frost/Nixon has a 96

Freaking Howard, how does he do it?

93% for Frost/Nixon at RT

http://64.14.20.205/m/frostnixon/


This is definitely still hovering in the Top 8. I'd put it ahead of Doubt now (because of the director and the historical topic factor).

Don't worry too much. It's still in the running, but the BFCA tends to be inflated for Opie flicks. Didn't Cinderella Man get like a 92?

I think Cinderella Man is nominated if its released in Oscar season. It got Editing, which usually ties in with the bigger players, and a WGA nom, a nom from the Sound Editors guild, BFCA gave it a BD and it showed up in other assorted places. I also think that in Oscar season it probably would've made it to 100 mil, which would've pushed it over the top.

Yeah. It surely would have had more noms at least (I bet Crowe just barely missed).

Quite off-topic, but I also think that had Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind would have been a BP nom contender had it been released in November or December instead of, what was it, March? It would have grossed $50+ million, Carrey would have been nominated and considering how close Adaptation AND Being John Malkovich got to being nominated for BP, this one would have made it.

Yeah, but Cinderella Man was bigger and baitier. Eternal Sunshine would have definitely been nominated if they gave it a Truman Show-type release.

But then again....apparently the Academy doesn't go much for big and baity anymore.

Oh and another thing about Slumdog Millionaire winning (or not):

A reason why I also don't see it winning is simply because it is not likely to win many Oscars overall. I know Crash pulled off a BP win with three wins in total, but can SM even win three? The Academy giving it Picture AND Director is very unlikely, IMO. It's time for another split and I doubt the love will be that big. Anything else it has a shot at winning? Definitely not acting. Cinematography will go to either TDK or Benjamin Button, certainly not SM.

So that leaves it with only fair chances at Editing, Screenplay and Picture (ironically the same ones Crash won)...only that I don't see it getting Editing AND Screenplay. Competition for either will be tough. And it's not winning BP with only one more win.

I hear what you're saying but, if it really starts looking like a BP winner, Danny Boyle can win too. Now it may seem unlikely to you, but it'll feel different if the movie really has the momentum.

I have it winning Adapted Screenplay. Cine/Editing have been praised, but I think a nom is enough. A Pic/Dir win is exceedingly unlikely.

Like yoshue said, it needs momentum, and a lot of it.



Well, it wasn't big really, just a much more seen and easier to attach to emotionally. The Academy is more for mid-scale projects these days with bigger and smaller ones thrown in if they are actually deserving. 2005 was a bit of a fluke, otherwise stuff like GNGL and Capote would have been fine in the Acting categories, though if something like King Kong did something like make $500 million, or an amazing $30 million drama came out and made $100+ million on grown men crying, it would have been very different.

Just finished Milk (waiting for My Name Is Bruce with a Campbell Q&A afterwards :p)...

Easily Penn's best work and probably Van Sant's as well. Noms across the board and I suspect it will play broader than Brokeback, much broader. Watch out TDK and Curious Case...

Kinda what I suspected.

Doubt it's better than Drugstore Cowboy, though.

Apparently MSN has these three penciled in:

Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon

And these five fighting for the final two spots:

The Dark Knight
Wall-E
Revolutionary Road
The Wrestler
Milk

The Wrestler and WALL-E are the least likely up there.

And Doubt is up there too in contention.

Tell MSN that.

MSN is quite stupid.