Well, are docs considered live-action? Because if not, docs have dominated the best reviewed films of the year for 2008. Could certainly be one of those.

That sounds like an endorsement for WALL-E, moreso than Man on Wire. The wording doesn't support a documentary.

Australia now stands at 47%, 40% COTC.

I'm seeing it this morning but that's merely a formality. It's off my BP ballot.

Australia looked cringe worthy from the first trailer. Expected.

Well, I LOVE Baz's style. But critics love nothing more than to pile up on disasters so I think for the most part, many of us saw this coming. I never thought it was BP contender but I did think it was a nominee by default.

It should still rack up a nice tech nom tally unless Hollywood really wants to send a message.

Whatever helps WALL-E get in the 5.

Hit it Freddie

Waltz with Bashir?

And snack is in the right that TDK doesn't really reflect the current mood of the country. Milk and Slumdog Millionaire are a lot closer (Battle for gay rights, hope in general).

But as a person that stood firmly against King Kong back in 2005 (Ask around on AwardsDaily, I was despised!), TDK is 65% likely at this point, behind only the above two contenders.

Also, Loyal: Three of the nine BP-less 6+ nominees you mentioned earlier were genre films (T2, Dick Tracy, Pan's Labyrinth), and all of them except Thelma & Louise received no more than two major noms, and WALL-E is "good" for only 1 (Screenplay, where I'm not predicting it ATM).

That's not an American movie.

He said it's the best "live-action," "mainstream," and "American" movie of the year. Waltz with Bashir is none of those things.

Go Wall-E, Go!

He gave it a 90, but he hasn't given any film 100 this year that I can find. He isn't Ebert with perfect ratings.

Yeah, it's getting good buzz and reviews, I'm looking forward to it. As you said, it could be a player at the Globes.

In any case, Milk is right now the safest choice to pick for a nom (yes, safer than TDK) and then Slumdog Millionaire.

Also, Milk is the safest one to predict that it will NOT win Best Picture, IMO. It's an actors' film and doesn't seem like the kind of film the Academy would now award Best Picture to.


UNLESS...they wanna make up for Brokeback Mountain in some bizarre scenario.

Hammond



NY Post:



Benjamin Button is the frontrunner, IMO.

If Wall-E wasn't the frontrunner, I would agree.

I want to see a few box office receipts before calling it the front runner, but I'm sure it'll be fine.

Just watched Australia a few hours ago. It's not bad.

Go Cate!!!

Here are Tapley's picks:

Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “Defiance”
Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music - Original Score: “Defiance”
Best Music - Original Song: “The Wrestler”
Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Captain Abu Raed”

I wouldn't be happy with a lot of that. I'm just not in love with Slumdog. It's not even Danny Boyle's best work. And what's with Defiance?

Last year he predicted Into the Wild to win Picture, S. Actor, S. Actress and Song around the same time. He also insisted that Letters from Iwo Jima would win from about early December, stopped when it was snubbed by the Guilds, then went back to predicting it all the way to Oscar night.

The man has made some smart predictions in the past (here he went 7/18 nearly four months prior), but he's also made some very, very dumb predictions.

That said, I do think Slumdog has an excellent chance at winning.

I really wish that I liked Slumdog more. It's a good film, maybe even great, but its so fuckin' conventional.

And that tells you some more about Oscars I guess. Boyle has been making good films for some time now, but in order to finally convince the Academy that he's worth it, he had to make something more conventional, I suppose (note: I haven't seen the film yet).

For an R rated film (and during our Q&A last weekend, we all asked the moderator how on earth it didn't earn a PG-13), it's pretty paint by number Disney.

Yeah, I can see Slumdog pulling a Crash. But now Benjamin Button pushing its way into the picture.

If it were Milk vs. Slumdog for Best Picture, I could definitely see a 2005 repeat.

The year is basically a mix of 1975 and 2005.

not really, i think its TDKs race to lose, not wide open.