What we're realizing is one of four things

1) BBM is unlike most BP nominees released in modern times
2) BBM will win an acting award
3) BBM will win tech awards
4) BBM will split BD/BP

Confirmed. It only won Best Picture and Best Screenplay.

Ew.

Well if that happens, I hope Ang Lee doesn't get overlooked. His mere eloquence deserves to win hands down.

That won't happen. And even for some unbelievable reason a split did occur, BBM is the kind of the film that wins BD. I don't see any way it wins BP without winning BD.

I'm willing to beat that if 4 happens, Lee would be the one winning the Oscar (though I'd hardly find it appropiate)

It shouldn't loose, nor does it deserve to. Unless A History of Violence somehow manages to sneak into the race

BM will win at least one tech award. Something like Editing.

Did anybody notice that Ryan Phillipe (Sp?) told Morgan Freeman at the end after Crash won for ensemble that he always wanted to meet him and then started telling him he'd just filmed a movie with Clint Eastwood?

I didn't hear that when I watched it live on TBS, only when I watched it on TNT just now.

Loyalfromlondon


1. Can you elaborate?
2. What award are you expecting considering that Hoffman is all but locked up and Williams and Gyllenhal are blips on the radar now.
3. I agree with that.
4. I think this will happen. Ang Lee BD and BP to Crash or WTL

He's just saying that given history, one of those 4 things must be true.

Either 1, it's unlike any film in recent years (winning BP with 4 or less total wins - no acting) OR it will win an acting award (making #1 untrue) OR it will win some techs (making #1 untrue) OR it will split Pic and dir.

I think Brokeback Mountain will win

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay

and possibly either Best Editing or Cinematography.

IF they really want to support it, it will get those 3, and one tech, and Supporting Actress. But Weisz has now pulled ahead in the race.

I don't know if it has been mentioned here (I don't have time to read 20 pages... ), but The English Patient (an extremely good comparison right now) was completely shut out here with also 4 nominations and then won 9 Oscars, including Sup. Actress for Juliette Binoche.. so... no need to worry too much

Since SAG and Oscar never matched 4/4 - except for last year (and in 1998, but there was a tie between Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart), there's at least one of these actors who's not going to win the Oscar.. the question is who... Giamatti seems the most fragile (doesn't have the Globe), but Williams can still pull a big upset ala Binoche in 1997..

4) is almost impossible. The rest is possible. I would go with 2) or 3). Or both.

I see it getting Screenplay, Director, Picture, Score, Sup. Actress.

By the way, I just woke up and re-read this thread.

Very amusing.

No surprises, though. Crash's ensemble win was well-deserved.

why would MW be considered the lead for supporting actress to anyone still picking her > don't understand that.

Also think that if there was more love for the actors in BBM, Heath would be higher up then he is considered.

**************

Also I am wondering if these are considerations for MW.

- Has she really ever acted on anthing but that night teen soap opera.

- Is she too young and green, any dues paid, to be given it especially over Rachel W.

no totally sure > but it seems to say that BBM will win at least 1 Oscar.

BBM isn't going home empty handed, that's for sure.

Oh please... Michelle has much more acting experience than you imagine (and btw, what's so wrong with Dawson's Creek? )


She was very good in The Station Agent, Prozac Nation, The United States of Leland... even in Halloween H20 (yes, I've said it), which isn't exactly an "actors" movie.. and I still need to see Imaginary Heroes and Wim Wenders' Land of Plenty..


I also love Rachel, but saying that Michelle hasn't done anything besides Dawson's Creek is a big lie...

I don't mind if it gets Director but I hope that it doesn't get Picture as I pointed out in the Roundtable > It is a movie that will be forgotten in 5 years > and still not sure how many times there has been a Picture that had no Actors winning > doesn't show much to me.

Also as I detailed in the review section, BBM just glossed over everything and never got deep into anything > except Heath butt in that one scene, of course.

FYI > Not a lie cause I asked has she, I was asking the question as I am not familiar with her other work.

I think that Brokeback will win:

- Picture
- Director
- Adapted Screenplay
(all of these 3 seem locked)

and then..

- one acting win (assuming it gets the three acting nominations -> meaning that statistically it should win one..)

and at least one of these:
- Editing
- Cinematography

Score is iffy, as well as anything else it might get tomorrow (Art Direction/Costumes/Sound)..


the worst case scenario is Midnight Cowboy, ironically.. (Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay)

I'm sorry then.. but now you know she's not a complete stranger to the business

very good show.

I am glad Phillip won but I wanted Jaquin.

Crash was a good win and of course Keifer for 24.

Homophone, as Zach would say.

Anyway...which of the movies nominated will not be forgotten, though? Will GNGL be remembered for a longer time? I doubt it. Certainly not Walk the Line either. Crash? Maybe, but it also has a camp of haters that is bigger than any of the other nominees has. Munich? It will not be remembered for a long time, it will never achieve the status of SPR or Schindler's List. Capote? Definitely not.

Ironically, those movies this year that WILL be remmebered for a long time (Sin City, King Kong, Batman Begins etc.) will not even be nominated.