It also just occurred to me - BAFTA didn't give Best Film or Director to Birdman/Inarritu last year. Doesn't this mean The Revenant could very feasibly win BAFTA's Best Film and Best Director this year? And then ride the DGA/BAFTA wave to Oscar glory?

Peace,
Mike

I don't think Spotlight took much of a hit tonight. McCarthy winning this or Best Director at the Oscars wouldn't have made sense. For them to award his so much less flashy work than The Big Short, The Revenant or Mad Max, the route there probably would've been if Spotlight just creamed the race. But when looking at the context of missing PGA, missing ACE Dramatic, missing BAFTA Director nom, etc. it was never that strong. If Spotlight was strong enough to carry McCarthy to an unlikely DGA it would have won PGA. DGA but no PGA doesn't make sense. Before tonight, if you told me Spotlight wins Best Picture, I would have guessed DGA and Best Director goes to whoever they pick out of Innaritu or Miller, so that is still on track. I'd say Spotlight's chance at Best Picture is no worse than it was yesterday

The Big Short is more debatable. McKay wins at DGA and Best Director were probably in play. It's possible Big Short is still the Best Picture winner and DGA decided to lift their nose at Adam McKay. But would he have gotten DGA nom, BAFTA Director and Oscar nom and beaten directors like Spielberg and Scott in the process if the directors branch disrespected his history? Or would that weakness have showed up already?

The Revenant can now win but would be such a weird winner with losing PGA, no SAG Ensemble nod, and no WGA on its own merit.

Inarritu pretty much has Best Director guaranteed for Oscar, winning GG, DGA, and BAFTA (not yet awarded but 100% lock).

Mad Max has officially fallen below Room for any chance to win BP.

I still wouldn't put The Revenant ahead of either Spotlight or The Big Short for BP yet. The WOKJ nominees where Inarritu got nominated BD while The Revenant wasn't even close for BP could be a sign as to what happens at Oscar.

His appearances kind of soured me on Inarritu. I cannot stand seeing him doing more of his "hard shoot"-speeches. I love his early work (Amores Perros and 21 Grams) and I really really liked Birdman (actually my 2nd-favorite nominee last year after Whiplash), but he seems so full of himself by now hat I just cannot root for him to win his second Oscar, especially in a row, making him seem like some sort of director God, while Fincher has yet to win one and Nolan hasn't even been nominated.

I looked up: it has occured only twice before that three different films won PGA/DGA/SAG Ensemble:

2004: The Aviator won PGA, Million Dollar Baby won DGA, Sideways won SAG Ensemble. Additionally, Sideways and The Aviator won Golden Globes for Picture, but Clint Eastwood as Best Director

2000: Gladiator won PGA, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon won DGA and Traffic won SAG Ensemble. Addionally Gladiator and Almost Famous won the Globes for Picture, Ang Lee as Best Director.

Ang Lee is a good example why Inarritu isn't a lock. He won the lobe, the DGA and the BAFTA, yet lost the Oscar.

I feel like when looking at BP/BD splits, Ang Lee might not be the best example. Both of his wins were under unusual circumstances. I'd more look to 1998, 2000, and 2002. And of course 2013 is an interesting case study of the strength of narratives.

The Revenant has the heat - it's killing at the box office and it leads in Oscar nominations.

What a crazy Oscar race!

Spotlight is still THE important movie in the race.



Sometimes that's enough, though I suspect this year no one gives a fuck.

In 2004, DGA predicted the Best Picture & Director Oscars.
In 2000, PGA predicted the Best Picture Oscar, and SAG Ensemble predicted the Best Director Oscar.

That doesn't really help me any. I think loyal is probably right and it's more about narrative. Million Dollar Baby went on to win Best Picture & Director at the Oscars because it arrived late and then was on the rise as a 'passion' film and steamrolled over the rest. It was even totally absent from BAFTA and still won big at the Oscars. Though because of that, this may have been a unique year that doesn't really help us this year.

In 2000, we had another narrative around wanting to award Soderbergh for his great year, with worry that his two Director nominations would split the vote. So people rallied behind Traffic for Best Director. So, though Ang Lee won the DGA and lost the Oscar, I recall there being a narrative/push that led to Soderbergh's win. Will the narrative this year be/become all about Inarritu's director prowess? Or will there be a pushback to recognize someone else? I don't know.

The thing is, Spotlight is weak at the BAFTA's (no director nom), so it seems difficult to see McCarthy winning Best Director at the Oscars. And McKay... well, The Big Short could clean up at the BAFTA's I suppose. But I don't think so. It really feels like, since BAFTA didn't award Birman/Inarritu last year, that they are more likely to award The Revenant/Inarritu this year, which would give the film another push heading into the Oscars. Though if BAFTA goes The Big Short for Best Film, and Inarritu for Best Director (mirroring PGA/DGA split), then maybe that forecasts that we will see the same split at the Oscars. But damn, another split year!

This year is crazy :S

Peace,
Mike

Or BAFTA just fucks it all and awards both to Carol.

Everything is lining up for The Revenant to grab some big wins at BAFTA.

racist