Depp is not winning.

My current predictions:
1. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Michael Caine, Youth
5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass

6. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
7. Géza Röhrig, Son of Saul
8. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
11. Michael Keaton or Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

So certain.

Well, if you look at the last ten years, the Academy has awarded Best Actor to a nominee whose film was also nominated for Best Picture 8 out of 10 times. The two times it did not were Jeff Bridges in 2009 (the nominees from films that were also nominated for Best Picture were not as strong or were previously rewarded, and Bridges had a big overdue narrative going for him) and Forest Whitaker in 2006 (a bizarre year where none of the nominees matched up with any of the Best Picture nominees). Black Mass is unlikely to be a Best Picture contender; it has solid reviews, but there doesn't seem to be much passion for the film. Fassbender and Redmayne are much more likely for the win since both of their films are more likely to get a Best Picture nomination, and both have strong reviews. And I'm not mentioning DiCaprio, who with the right reviews and campaign could run away with the whole thing. Depp might have the comeback narrative working for him and that could help him get a nomination, but he's definitely not considered overdue. He'll be lucky to get the nomination. It's still September, he's not a sure thing, in my opinion.

I have seen Youth and I doubt a nom for Caine. The role is not showy enough for a film that will be very small.

McKellen should definitely be higher.

But you are right, especially in a year such as this, scoring a BP nomination might be essential for the eventual Best Actor winner. Which would put it between Fassbender, DiCaprio and Redmayne.

I've actually read the same thing about Caine from reviews. But Youth will probably appeal to older voters in the Academy, and the sentimental factor might help elevate Caine's chances. After all, he has been nominated once every decade since the sixties, and has won twice.

I just think McKellen has an iconic role in Mr. Holmes, the film did rather well at the bo-office and he also has the sentimental factor and the overdue factor (though he still won't win) going for him. Don't see them both getting nominated and I believe McKellen has the edge.

I really hope that's the case.

Abraham Attah, "Beasts of No Nation"
Michael Caine, "Youth"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

I see Geza Röhrig over Attah, Caine and DiCaprio.

This is Fassbender's to lose with Black Mass taking a nosedive critcally and commercially. I still think he'll be nominated, but there is no chance at a win now.

1. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
5. No idea

Time to put Matt Damon in there. He's Tom Hanks from Castaway but on Mars.

Yeah, no.

I can see him getting some awards, and they will obviously campaign on his behalf. Not sure I'm seeing any Oscar activity for his performance, but stranger things have happened.

Fassbender and Redmayne are the only absolute locks for noms. Leo is almost a lock, but there is a small chance his role in The Revenant is not Oscar size. So the race is really wide open. No reason to say Damon couldn't sneak in there at this early stage. He's more likely than the kid from the Netflix movie.

Nah, nobody's a lock.

There is one lock and that's Leo.

And to say that his role is not large enough? What? Let's see he's in the trailer from the beginning to the end. Hmm. Seems like it's all about him.

I meant in terms of overall significance to cinema. Fassbender and Redmayne are much more locked than he is, though DiCaprio has abtter chance to win.

Plus, reviews are already availble for Fassbender and Redmayne's films. If I'm not mistaken, The Revenant has not even had its premiere.

Think Fassbender is the only real lock right now. Redmayne has the Oscar-baity role, but the film itself is smaller and receiving less critical acclaim than Steve Jobs, so it's not all that crazy to think he might miss if a couple of other actors end up dominating critical awards. Just can't imagine a scenario that Fassbender will miss given the reviews he has already gotten and the film's other cast members and overall pedigree.

I don't see Depp getting nominated anymore.

Who do you think can get in ahead besides Fassbender, Redmayne and Leo? I don't think Michael Caine is getting in over him.

Well, apart from the top three contenders, there are many weaker contenders who will be fighting for the last two spots. I feel the buzz for Johnny Depp's film and, consequently, his performance has been dissipating quite fast. By the time December comes in, I just think it's gonna be overshadowed by more buzzed about contenders. There's Ian McKellen and Michael Caine who will probably appeal to older voters(and they are the vast majority) due to the respect/admiration/nostalgia factors. There's Tom Hanks, who depending on Bridge of Spies and his snub for Captain Phillips, could make a play for a nomination. And of course Bryan Cranston in Trumbo. There are the passion plays of Geza Rohrig and Abraham Attah, which will mostly rise and fall on campaign and critics awards. Then there's unknowns such as Will Smith in Concussion (which is bound to be a big box office hit at just the right time) and maybe someone from The Hateful Eight cast depending on the category placement (most likely Samuel L Jackson). And there's also Matt Damon in The Martian that could possibly take a spot on likeability and his film's crowdpleasing and box office credentials. I just think Johnny Depp looks like a Golden Globe nominee and not much else. He will not be winning critics awards, he most likely won't campaign for the nomination, and his film is probably going nowhere.

But he does appear to be in it so far, given that we haven't seen a lot of these films. So if they all disappoint, he could still get in. Going from what we've seen and heard, Depp has a great chance at a nomination. Not a lock by any means, but a great chance.

After watching the film I don't see Attah getting in anymore. Though I wonder who gets that fifth spot now. I guess Damon has a shot?

I think Depp has a better shot than Damon. The film isn't as well received, but the role still has much more hype and buzz and is more traditional Oscar bait. But I'm sure someone we don't even know about will come out of nowhere to snag the last slot.

I do think Fassbender is the only lock at this point. The Danish Girl didn't get great reviews. I guess Redmayne still might get in anyway but I don't see him winning. It is probably going to be between Fassbender and Leo at this point.