Lincoln was missing a good cinematographer. Other than close ups of DDL as Lincoln, there really weren't many memorable scenes or look to the movie. The final vote on the 13th amendment was anti-climatic. There have been (and may very well be) better movies out this year. I'm hoping Les Mis blows everything out of the water.

This is Life of Pi's to lose. Far more deserving than all others.

Les Mes could get Chicago type of nominations other than the Original Song category. I think it's looking at a minimum of 10 noms and could get more if it can some additional acting noms outside Jackman and Hathaway.

It can get in Original Song, which I'm sure it will. The song "Suddenly" was made for the film and is getting outstanding reviews.

As for the film, the first screening was today and quotes from people who have seen it are OUTSTANDING. I don't think it will win Director, but I think it more or less has Picture, Actor and Best Supporting Actress in the bag.

You can't say it has Best Actor in the bag when Day-Lewis and Denzel are also in play.

It's definitely a two-horse race between Lincoln and Les Mes, but Picture and Actor are definitely not in the bag. In fact, I'd say Lincoln is still very much the frontrunner for Actor.

It's not a two-horse race at all. You are ruling out Life of Pi. The Academy love stuff like that.

I can't see DDL winning again so soon and Flight didn't make a huge impact at the box office or anything. The Academy obviously loves Hugh Jackman and this is the role of a lifetime for him.

Judging by all the Oscar nominations he has received so far?

Life of Pi isn't winning Best Picture.

It could very well be nominated but that will be it. It won't inspire the same frenzy of Lincoln or Les Mis.

Yes, it's not as frenzy inducing and lifting as...Lincoln.

You know what I mean.

lincolns not wining best picture; tdkr was more emotional than that movie. Apollo 13 showed how to do a triumphant story well & make it suspenseful even when the outcome is known; lincoln felt anti climatic.

Not sure what emotion has to do with anything. I can think of several dozen films that weren't emotionally driven films that have won Best picture. And actually Lincoln has some very strong emotional moments with the issue of Slavery the scene with Thaddeus Stevens and housekeeper and several scenes with Gloria Rubens (Mary Todd Lincoln's dressmaker) both come to mind.

lincoln is a well written & well acted made for tv movie. the direction was weak, frankly

No, Spielberg's direction was just restrained. Frankly I welcomed Spielberg stepping back and letting the actors play with the incredible dialogue.

I wouldn't disagree though that the lack of flashy angles might keep Spielberg from winning his third Oscar for Best Director. Upcoming films notwithstanding, I do think it's Spielberg's to lose at this point.

That's not an opinion shared by many people, though. You can't let your own bias interfere with predicting these things.

I think this is one of the most exciting BP races in YEARS.

I know, Lincoln just is not the slam dunk movie I was expecting it to be. Hopefully Les Miserables or SLPB can surprise. The Dark Knight Rises deserves it more than anything frankly -Batman meets Shawshank- but it prbably will not even be nominated.

DDL needs to come back for "Lincoln Returns" or "Lincoln: Reloaded: or "Lincoln Triumphant". They need to do an Abe movie about a story which is actually intereting.

We have a great battle. I don't think there is a clear favorite yet.

Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Maybe:

Django
Beasts of the Souther Wild
Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty starts with 97 on metacritic at six reviews. Reviews stay like this and its the favorite.

How much will ZD30 and Argo hurt each other?

In other news, Metacritic doesn't know math. The average of their six reviews is 94.

Still amazing, of course, but yanno...

Doesn't Metacritic give more weight to certain critics?