The only thing that would make me hesitate with MM is whether there'll be male voters who refuse to watch the screener, a la Brokeback

Except this will be even worse. Brokeback Mountain is a prestigious literary adaptation by Ang Lee. Magic Mike is perceived as this zany stripper romp (and, honestly, is very divisive among the public). Warner's decision to not sell it as a Soderbergh slice-of-life character piece will prove as harmful with the Academy as it was successful in drawing in opening-night moviegoers.

Yeah. I'm guessing a large portion of the male population wouldn't watch Magic Mike even if you paid them to do it. The screeners should have the voters' wives name on it

I'd love if he got in, he was seriously great in Magic Mike and the movie itself is becoming quite underrated. Very few people actually love it and many think it's boring, there isn't enough stripping, etc.

Indeed. The Redbox and Netflix user reviews are mediocre to awful.

There's not enough story in it. They've stripped the most important part of the movie.

Not every film has to be 100 percent plot oriented. Magic Mike is driven by small and convincing moments of character, environment, etc.

I told y'all. You can't stop what's coming.

Ass shaking was very convincing indeed.

I'd say my press screening of Magic Mike was mostly filled with straight guys, but the majority of us (including myself) was still pretty enthusiastic about the film.

Hmm, Tommy Lee Jones might not be a lock (for a win) yet. This seems all over the place now.

I can't figure out who beats TLJ though. MM?

No, if anyone it'd be DiCaprio.

Apparently it's 1993 again.

This could still go any number of ways right now. Currently I'm predicting:

DeNiro
DiCaprio
Hoffman
Jones
McConaughey

But Jones and McC are the only ones I'm really confident in. Dwight Henry, Redmayne, Pena (End of Watch), and the two other Django guys could easily screw things up. Especially the Django guys, since there doesn't seem to be any consensus on who's the best from the film.

I get the feeling this week are going to make things even murkier, unfortunately.

Django might end up with a The Departed situation.

The strength of the category this year in comparison to 2011 is sort of absurd, btw. I'm not sure any of the nominees from last year other than Plummer would be in contention this year.

Who was even nominated last year against Plummer? I remember Max von Sydow and that's about it.

Branagh, Jonah Hill and Nick Nolte.

Nick Nolte should have won.

Albert Brooks should have won.

Absolutely. He was amazing.

Still so certain?

Django's receiving great, if not stellar, reviews thus far? Despite the lack of anything SAG related, is Waltz, DiCaprio, and possibly even Jackson in play for Supporting, maybe even Lead for Mr. Waltz?

I wonder if Django Unchained's fucked up Oscar campaign (Waltz for Lead) will hurt the film's actors in the way The Departed's campaign did.