My current predictions:

Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)/Frank Langella (Good Night, and Good Luck)


This is the most unclear major category as of now.

At this point I'm thinking -

Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (I think he'll become a lock to win once some major awards get handed out)
George Clooney, Syriana (don't see how they can resist it at this point)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain (part of Brokeback getting nominated for everything possible)
Matt Dillon, Crash (arguably considered the strongest performance in Crash)
Terrence Howard, Crash (I don't know, this one's hard to pick)

If not Howard then I think it'll be Don Cheadle or William Hurt...I'd include Hurt but I'm not sure if the Academy will go for it. I think Frank Langella is the long shot, doesn't seem to be as much love there as anticipated.

Paul Giamatti
Matt Dillon
Jake Gyllenhaal
William Hurt
George Clooney

Paul is almost a lock to win now I think for [s]Sideways[/s] [s]American Splendor[/s] Cinderella Man. Gyllenhaal's performance is probably the weakest thing on the Mountain and really doesn't even deserve mention in my opinion. Frankly, he was better in Jarhead.

It is so sad that Giamatti will be actually winning for a performance that is by far not one of his best.

It's the Paul Newman factor. Newman won a Best Actor Oscar for The Color of Money, which I think is actually one of his worst performances.

I thought Giamatti was pretty great in Cinderella Man, though...and the Best Supporting Actor is so muddled that I can't say I'd rather see anyone else in particular win over him.

It's not a bad performance though. It's as good as the Crash guys and better than Brokeback. Since Ciarán Hinds or Daniel Craig won't get a nomination, I would put it in my top 5 of Supporting Actor performances during the year.

Then again, I have a real soft spot for Giamatti and would love to have him walking around with an Oscar.

Still I agree, it's easily the biggest "make up" award of the year.

I agree, I didn't even like Gyllenhaal that much in Brokeback. Jarhead was the only movie I've seen him in where I thought he was any good.

The funny thing about Brokeback Mountain is that Ledger's character is layered and dark and "different" from any other "gay" movie while Gyllenhaal's character is much, much, much, much, much more stereotypical.

I've critisized the film for not balancing enough between Ennis and Jack, maybe that was an editing room decision. Maybe Lee saw Ledger's performance and put extra emphasis on it.

No way is Paul Giammatti getting his Color of Money Oscar for that unseen film - he'll have to wait - anyways, he's just been hitting his stride in the last five years or so - we're goin' see lots more phenomenal work from that guy...

My money's on Bob Hoskins - who's Color of Money Oscar has been chillin' for almost 20 years now, since his career best work in Mona Lisa...

I thought Gyllenhaal was pretty good in Brokeback, not good enough to take this category but still well-done. Part of why I think many weren't impressed with him is because Ledger is so impressive and does the majority of the heavy-lifting when it comes to the acting in that movie that it overshadows Gyllenhaal. But then again, Michelle Williams overshadows him too so maybe I'm just searching... After all, if the roles were reversed and Jake played Ennis I doubt people would be as crazy about the movie. Overall I find Gyllenhaal pretty average as an actor, looking at his body of work the characters he plays seem pretty similiar and it doesn't seem like he has that much range, incapable of completely disappearing into a role. I still need to see Jarhead though. By the way, his worst performance of this year in my opinion is definitely in Proof.

As for Giamatti, I agree that this will be the "make-up" nomination and award for his American Splendor & Sidways snubs. I really think it's only a matter of weeks before he's the obvious win, and yeah I think he deserves it.

Oh and andaroo what about the character Jack in Brokeback did you think made him stereotypical? I have an idea but I'm just curious since it's not too obvious (as in it's not like he could be plopped into the Queer Eye cast).

Bob Hoskins isn't even getting nomination buzz.

He was the instigator, was trying to reach out to men, he searched out empty sex with men (Mexico, dinner party scene), his entire marriage was a facade... Ennis' was too but he was much more complicated, I think he actually loved his wife, he just loved what Jack had to offer more. He was also a bit of a dandy when it came to his clothes, hair and his appearance. I thought that was pretty obvious.

Also...
[spoil]The way in which he is outted and killed is pretty typical for what we would expect from a story like this[/spoil]
So while it is true that Ennis does not follow the stereotypical lines of the average homosexual character, I think Jack is on the other hand MUCH more straight forward and a much easier character.

Really, the only scene in the entire movie which is about Jack that is not self-servering to Ennis is the Thanksgiving scene. The rest of Jack's entire story is to serve up what happens to Ennis.

I think at the moment only Clooney can challenge Giamatti's win.

I highly doubt it. Not with Syriana.

That's what I figured (the sex constantly on the brain, the facade for his entire life) though I didn't really notice the clothing bit that much. Of all the movie characters of 2005, I'd be most curious to see what a different actor could do with this one.

Having seen Matt Damon and Heath Ledger together in the otherwise failed The Brothers Grimm, I think someone like Damon could have played the character with a little more gravity.

Clooney has better chance at director than supporting actor, or in another word, not much chance at all. His oscar will come from GNAGL's screenplay.

Jake is the one who can challenge Paul, especially if he wins SAG.

even though I also think Jake's performance, although meant to be showy and "a more obvious gay," was the weakest in the movie, I'd have to say politics would probably place him in the top 3 running to win. The fact of the matter is his character is the least layered in a film that is ALL about layers. So anyone performing in that role will have come off similarly. But I just don't think JAake dug into the role as well as the others did howevermuch diggin his role required.

I do predict Giamatti to win, but I stcik with Clooney as the second-best chance. It's by far and away the best year in his career.

Anyone who is actually serious about Giamatti "winning" must be smoking some really potent weed. He'll get a nomination. That's why he's won some critic awards, to insure his non snub this year, but the performance was not that great. Pretty standard.

This award belongs to Dillon or Clooney, not Giamatti.

Just like Libs, I'm thinking Clooney, Gylenhaal, Hurt, Giamatti, and Dillon. Of all of those, Clooney actually seems like the most unsure thing, espeially if he gets a director and screenplay nomination. Wow though, Universal really messed up here with Munich. I think they really should have emphasized a certain supporting actor in their campaign, and now they about half a dozen different actors people are giving attention to, and they're all cancelling each other out.

I'm actually thinking...Don Cheadle. With Crash now the #2 contender, and with a weak/no solid 5th nominee, a very good performance in a year like this, from a strong and respected former nominee like him, getting swept in, it's IMO very very possible.

Yeah, Don Cheadle's not out of the race either, Shack.

Figure 4 almost-locks:
Clooney
Giamatti
Dillon
Gyllenhaal

Then, for spot 5, you have the two CRASH guys, Cheadle and Howard
And William Hurt

While they're both long shots, either Bob Hoskins or Frank Langella (I literally had a dream where he ended up getting nominated) could pick up the 'Alan Alda' slot.

Ed Harris isn't exactly out of running for a nomination either. I wouldn't be surprised.