*AHEM*

I read that Gong Li has this stare or look she makes in the movie and that a child in the shoot cried when he saw her and they had to replace him!

Guys, I saw a bit on Brokeback Mountain today, and I'm thinking...Anne Hathaway...

If the movie gets a Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, then theres no reason why it can't pick up a Supporting Actress as well. She looked fantastic in the western wear. The academy loves young up and comers, with a top dog like Brokeback things could very well swing her way.

No, supporting actress from Brokeback Mountain will go to Michelle Williams.

We'll see. I still think Anne Hathaway looked kick-ass. Maybe both.

My predictions:
Uma Thurman
Ginnifer Goodwin
Frances McDormand
Michelle Williams
Shirley MacLaine

Who's Ginnifer Goodwin?

- Diane and Scarlett are definitely in;

- I'm keeping Maria Bello for the moment and replacing MacLaine and Thurman for Michelle Williams and Gong Li..

1. Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
2. Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
3. Gong Li, Memoirs
4. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
5. Maria Bello, A History of Violence

The only close-to-locks here in my opinion are Scarlett Johansson and Gong Li.

I agree. Both of them are the closest locks you'll get for this category.

I'm starting to really doubt Diane Keaton will get a nod. I saw the trailer again before Walk the Line and it just doesn't seem like there's enough meat. If she's really good and has alot to do, then I don't kknow... it could happen. But I just see it unlikely now.

You are counting out all the Munich ladies?

Diane Keaton? She's apparently wonderful and the category isn't terribly strong in the first place.



Who are the women in Munich?

Trust me... it's not as light as the trailer suggests.. and her role is "meaty" enough for the Academy standards, so to speak.. (and even if it wasn't, it's Diane Keaton... a nomination would only be at stake if the reviews for the film were too bad... )

That is so hot.

I would normally doubt Keaton as well. Her role doesn't seem like Oscar-material.

But this is a weak category in a weak year, so why not. I do not see a win for her, though.

My predictions in the likelihood of winning:

1. Gong Li (Memoirs of a Geisha)
2. Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)
3. Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
4. Diane Keaton (The Family Stone)
5. Uma Thurman (The Producers)/Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)

I think Diane Keaton is a lock for an Oscar nomination.

ditto (and I've seen the film)

In fact, and in this particular year, she's clearly the frontrunner (not Scarlett) for now..

You know what? Geisha is doing so bad, that even the glowing remarks towards Gong Li may not even put her into consideration anymore. Could we actually see her not go through?

sasha@oscarwatch


lol...i wonder how true that is...

Quick reference guide to, what I deem, the definitive list from which we will recieve all our Best Supporting Actresses.

Here they are...

Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Scarlet Johanson, Match Point
Judi Dench, Pride and Prejudice
Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Uma thurman, The Producers
Frances McDormand, North Country
Thandie Newton, Crash
Sandra Bullock, Crash
Catherine Keener, Capote
Amy Adams, Junebug




My prediction....

Amy Adams
Scarlet Johanson
Diane Keaton
Michelle Williams
Gong Li

Alternate: Rachel Weisz (in what is turning out to be the Kinsey of thsi year)

Hmmm. Godd analysis. I don't agree Weisz is the alternate though. People are giving the short-legged low buzz Gardener alot more attention than it deserves. Its' all but forgotten in the eyes of the Academy by now. You know what though? If the five you selected go through, I will literally pass out. What an excellent line-up. If Amy Adams gets some attention despite being in a 2 million grosser, and Gong Li finally gets the recognition she deserves, Diane Keaton is coming off Something's Gotta Give (in which she and Nickolson were great) and up-and-coming johanson gets her first nod, what an incredible selection. Williams will have to be happy with just a nod, but still, that's not bad considering who she's up against at all. I do see Thurmon perhaps dethroning her as the fifth spot. It never ceases to amaze me how big Thurman is, and yet she is perennially overlooked.

After having seen The Family Stone I know exactly why I underestimated Diane Keaton here and that is because the movie is clearly noit marketing the dramatic aspect of it and just comes across as a reversed Meet the Parents type of a movie. It definitely isn't.

I'll post my full review later, but I gotta say that now, after having seen The Family Stone, I think Diane Keaton is not only locked up for a nomination, but is also a clear frontrunner for the win. Her role is more extravagant and showy than in SGG and frankly, she is even better in this one. Masterful performance.

The Family Stone deserves a Best Cast Ensemble nom at SAG (which it probably won't get, but ah well).

I told you so...

With Geisha's hostile reception, I've bumped Gong Li off my list.

I'm going with:
Diane Keaton
Scarlett Johansson
Maria Bello
Michelle Williams
Rachel Weisz

I would love to see Amy Adams get in.

This race really seems like an easy call for Keaton. Johansson will probably put up a fight but I doubt she'll win.

Woody Allen has a great track with supporting actress winners but I highly doubt that they'll give it to Johansson instead of Keaton.. Keaton fits the profile perfectly

(Even Woody will be happy to see her winning.. he pratically launched her career afterall )