Hmm.

Reese Witherspoon
Gwyneth Paltrow
Diane Keaton
Julianne Moore
Judi Dench

I'll give it a shot...

Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Cameron Diaz - In Her Shoes
Zhang Ziyi - Memoirs of the Geisha
Gwenyth Paltrow - Proof
Charlize Theron - North Country

I don't think they are going to nominate Charlize again... no mater what.

One more review on Shopgirl:

Variety: "Martin hits all the right notes while subtly conveying both the appealing sophistication and the purposeful reserve of Ray. But he cannot entirely avoid being overshadowed by Dane's endearingly vulnerable, emotionally multifaceted and fearlessly open performance. (In a few scenes, she appears so achingly luminescent it's almost heartbreaking to watch her.) The two stars bring out the very best in each other, particularly in poignant final scene."

Still, if she's gonna have any chance at a nomination the movie needs at least somewhat close to closer reviews (60-70% at RT).

I think this is going to be a pretty strong film with very good acting and a strong screenplay. However, I just don't see it getting universal praise and that's going to be a problem. It's not going to hit as strong a note as Lost in Translation did, but if the box office is decent and advertising/exposure/buzz is up there, then it could snag a couple of nos (best chances are in writing and possibly an acting nod for either one).

Berardinelli praised Keira Knightley's performance in Pride & Prejudice, so there's another contender.

Diane Keaton and Charlize Theron are also receiving good early notices for The Family Stone and North Country.

I think the actress category is such a mess this year.

There are so many great possibilities (and deserving I'm sure) but they just don't seem to fit in my mind.

Julianne Moore
Gwyneth Paltrow
Charlize Theron

they all seem to be giving amazing performances that could be contenders... but maybe it's the release date or lack of buzz... I think they're going to miss out and I really don't know who else is going to fill their shoes...

Cameron Diaz?
Ziyi Zhang?

there aren't that many high profile roles left this year to discuss!

I hope Kate Winslet gets a nod because I'm fairly sure if she's ha;f as good as she's been before... they'll give it to her. Even though that always aggravates me (how the academy awards acting trophies to the right people for the wrong perfromances, thus snubbing someone else in the process) but there won't be anyone I really care about this year. If either Julianne Moore or Kate get nominated, that's who I'm backing. 2 amazing women who won their trophies long ago but somehow never got to them!

I think Kate Winslet is supporting. If shes lead, then yeah go Kate go.

Yeah I don't think Kate has any lead roles this year.

You know I'm not sure about Charlize. On the one hand the trailer does make it seems like her perfomrance is good. But the movie itse;f and the role seems so..been there done that. better.

Her role in All the Kings Men is supporting, albeit it was expanded from the original movie.

Hmm....DAvid Poland says Felicity Huffman is out for Transamerica. Seems it's a good performance in a really bad movie. What do you guys think? I personally thought all along it was a long shot.

However, he did predict Phantom Of The Opera would win best picture last year, so I'm not sure how reliable he is.

Tod, the premis of the movie, the character she played. I didn't really see it happening. Even when everyone was first talking about what a break-through role it was. Part of it might be that I also have yet to hear an inkling of buzz about TransAmerica. I don't even have an idea of its release date, etc. Its going to be an incredibly small bidget movie. An Indie with under 5 million total through its run. Even if the movie was good, and she was good, that's a bit too bellow the radar for the Academy.

If it misses out I think it will be because the movie is too small and/or the performance/movie is just not the kind of thing the academy will go for and not because the movie isn't good enough.

Or, at least The Hollywood Reporter and a few other major critics have loved it so far.

With the poignant and often deliriously funny road-trip feature "Transamerica," she steps into the challenging lead role of a solitary, preoperative transsexual and delivers an extraordinary portrait. The film marks an auspicious debut for writer-director Duncan Tucker, whose fresh, character-driven story-telling should make this December release from the Weinstein Co. an art house favorite.

The transgender spin avoids gimmickry thanks to Tucker's deft touch and the subtle work of Huffman and the rest of the pitch-perfect cast, especially Kevin Zegers as the lost-and-found offspring.

Gender politics is an element of the film but by no means its subject. Tucker's concerns are loneliness, emotional honesty and the simple need for human kindness.

She's a fascinating character, and Huffman brilliantly embodies the complex layers of self-awareness and denial in this prim yet gutsy individual, who each day must paint on a face and put on a voice to become more truly herself. Self-consciousness is a constant, as the film powerfully demonstrates when a child's innocent but discerning question plunges Bree into despair.

Tucker's astute script and direction weave laugh-out-loud humor into his characters' longing for acceptance, particularly when their journey takes them to the Phoenix McMansion of Bree's family -- whose kitsch collectibles, part of Mark White's excellent production design, supply one of the funniest moments in the film. You don't have to be a transsexual to understand the way Bree's parents (Fionnula Flanagan and Burt Young) and sister (Carrie Preston) feed her self-doubt. But even the wonderful Flanagan's turquoise-bedecked, monstrously materialistic Elizabeth is afforded her humanity because Duncan lets emotions unfold instead of merely scoring points and moving on.



Plus, if Harvey and Bob Weinstein acquired it, I'm guessing there's a reason behind it.

Does anybody think that Felicity Huffman's shocking emmy win last night will have any effect on her getting recognized for Transamerica by the academy voters?

BTW...I've seen quite a bit of advertising for In Her Shoes today, and it appears that there is a sneak preview of it on Saturday. With Diaz, Collette, and MacLaine being heavy contenders at this point, I figured some of you might want to know that. It opens wide on Oct. 7th.

It's off to a good start with reviews...

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/in_her_shoes/?show=all

And the Hollywood Reorter says this, concerning it's box office prospects:

"The audience for "In Her Shoes" definitely skewers female. But Fox can count on Diaz to attract male viewers, who won't be disappointed by the sexy and stylish outfits her character, a clothes maven, wears in the picture. Boxoffice outlook is above average."

Let's not forget, this is from the writer that delivered Erin Brockovich and the director who delivered L.A. Confidential, so it could make some noise.

My updated predictions right now:

1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (lock)
2. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents (close to a lock; academy loves her as much as Meryl Streep, so she is in as long as she gives a performance, and the early word is a positive yes)
3. Diane Keaton, Family Stone (the buzz is very high on her performance)
4. Natasha Richardson, The White Countess
5. Charlie Theron, North Country

I change my mind every day, heh.

Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country

Regarding Cameron Diaz, everything I've heard about In Her Shoes says she is very good but outshined by Toni Collette, who apparently has the bigger role.

I have also heard that Collette is the scene stealer, but think Diaz would get recognized first, just because of her time put in.

Also, is Diane Keaton a lead actress or supporting actress in The Family Stone?

Lead, I would assume.

That's exactly what I would say right now as well. It seems a little too cut and dry at this point, huh? Maybe Zhang Ziyi and Natasha Richardson will shake things up a bit.

Best Actress is by far the weirdest category for me to predict.

I don't think either of the following are anywhere near locks...
Gwyneth Paltrow
Julianne Moore
Charlize Theron

Then we have...
Cameron Diaz
Diane Keaton
Judy Dench
Ziyi Zhang

What an incredibly odd bunch this year!

My picks:
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
Zhang Ziyi,Memoirs of a Geisha
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Dianne Keaton, The Family Stone
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice(I think she will sneak in)

Just Missed:
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Julianne Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance Ohio

After watching the trailer for The Family Stone I'm not sure Diane Keaton is a viable contender. Looks like a supporting role and a light one at that. I think the movie looks fun, but I'm not sure it's an Oscar contender.

Without having seen the trailer yet, I always never imagined her as a contender. All the buzz or Oscar potential I think she might have is from you guys.

Actually, DAvid Poland had her as his top pick a few weeks back. Remember when you refused to believe she would get nominated for Something's Gotta Give? She's a bit of an icon, between Annie Hall and The Godfather trilogy. Give her the right role and she's golden!

If she isn't a contender that does open up the field a bit for people like Julianne Moore, Joan Allen, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Keira Knightley. I'm starting to believe Allen's performance in The Upside Of Anger makes it in this year. It's a weak year for actresses. Also, Julianne Moore will have both The Prize Winner Of Defiance, OH and Freedomland which will have a short qualifying run in December. Not sure about her chances this year though.

In addition to David Poland, many prediction charts on the net have her at No. 3, right after Reese and Dench.