I think it's the other way around, actually.

For Supporting Actress: (Prediction and preference)
1) Natalie Portman
2) Cate Blanchett
3) Virginia Madsen
4) Sophie Okenedo
5) Laura Linney

Actor: Foxx is getting it. There's no use even debating it, it seems.

Best Actress

Benning
Moreno
Staunton
Swank
Winslet

Swank but it's far from a lock.

I still can't decide between Benning and Staunton.

I guess, I'll go with Benning.

I'm torn.

I have a 4/4/2 win count for Sideways/Aviator/M$B, so M$B has to win 2. I'm thinking editing and lead actress.

But lead actress is much shakier than editing IMO.

Well, you know The Aviator won Editing (undeservingly) and not M$B, so who knows... :???:

Morgan Freeman will get his due.

I agree with you...I think.

I really hope Winslet takes it, but I think it will probably be Swank or Staunton with Swank the obvious front-runner.

In Order of Preference
Hilary Swank
Kate Winslet
Catalina Sandino Moreno

All three were fantastic, but Swank was simply amazing. Didn't see the performances of Bening or Staunton.

Chance of Winning
Hilary Swank
Annette Bening
Imelda Staunton
Kate Winslet
Catalina Sandino Moreno

The race appears to be close, but I think Swank will join the elite group of actresses who have won more than one prize.

In Order of Preference
Hilary Swank
Catalina Sandino Moreno
Kate Winslet

All great and wouldn't upset me if anyone wins. Unfortunately only one has a realistic chance.

Chance of Winning
Hilary Swank
Imelda Staunton
Annette Benning
Kate Winslet
Catalina Sandino Moreno

Benning has faded in my opinion, and with Vera Drake doing better than expected, Staunton has become the main rival to Swank, but in the end, none of the other contenders is strong enough to deny Swank.

This is a strange race this year because any of them winning would be a surprise. Benning, Staunton, and Winslet because they don't have enough buzz. None of them have won enough awards to cement their place as likely winners. Benning's nomination for actress is the only nomination her film received, a sign that she is unlikely to win (it rarely happens), and it already happened last year. So two years in a row of beating the odds? If it weren't for the fact that it's Benning we're talking about, the performance wouldn't stand a chance, regardless of wther its deserving or not.

Catalino Sandino Moreno would be a surprise because...welll yeah :wink:

Swank is young, has already won, has only had about 3 or so great performances that I can think of and plenty of crappy ones, so is that the kind of resume a 2 time Oscar winner at her age has?

I think Winslet is kind of in a good spot, though, being the underdog all season, giving a performance that IS worthy enough of the win. She has established herself as one oft he great actresses working today. So it could happen, though I'm not predicting it. Yet it would be a nice surprise.

Moreno has the odds against her.

Benning is Benning. that might be enough for a win. SHe has lost way too much buzz though, and again, I don't know that many people (including academy members) actually love her performance, but more importantly...her film.

Staunton could happen, shes pretty much tied with Swank as the critical favorite. But again, the odds are against her.

Swank has everything in her favor, except her previous win. She has raves from critics, a Golden Globe, BFCA, SAG. She proved that her previous win wasn't a fluke (her win actually helps her a bit too, just not as much as it hurts her, if that makes sense). she's the only one staring in a best picture contender, her movie has been the most popular at the box office as well.

So I rank them like this:
1. Hilary Swank
2. Annette Benning
3. Kate Winslet
4. Imelda Staunton
5. Catalina Sandino Moreno

After a pretty boring start, this has turned once agian into one of the more interesting races this season though.

Best Director

Eastwood
Hackford
Leigh
Payne
Scorsese

Marty Marty Marty

In Order of Preference
Alexander Payne
Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorsese
Taylor Hackford

Didn't see Vera Drake.

Chance of Winning
Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorsese
Alexander Payne
Taylor Hackford
Mike Leigh

This is, for me, the toughest category to predict of all. I keep flipping between Eastwood and Scorsese. Cases could be made for both of them winning. Right now, I'm going with Eastwood. Scorsese will get it someday.

Eastwood has TWO Oscars already.

Granted, The Aviator isn't the best Scorsese film but it's good enough to warrant a Best Director Oscar.

If there is a split with best picture/best director, which I think there will be, Million Dollar Baby will win best picture, and this will be Marty's pity award. If there isn't, Eastwood gets it. Eastwood has already said that best picture is the important one to him, so if the academy is in the mood to please everybody this year, they will. The odds do favor Eastwood to win, though.

order of preference
Eastwood
Scorcese
Payne
Hackford
Leigh

probability of winning
Eastwood (deserving of the win)
Scorcese (if the academy feels pity for him)
Payne (will win one some year)
Hackford
Leigh

Preference

Payne
Eastwood
Scorsese
Hackford

Prediction

Scorsese
Eastwood
Payne
Hackford

I think it all boils down to a single question: Which is worse?

Being passed up a second year in a row but having won twice. Or being passed up for your entire career?

Eastwood has only won once for best director. He has two nominations, one win.

Eastwood won Best Director for Unforgiven in 1992 and won the Irving G Thalberg Memorial Award in 1994. If we're being technical, he won 3 Oscars including Best Producer or Best Picture for Unforgiven. :wink:

My preference - Scorcese

My prediction - Eastwood

Preference: Martin Scorcese
Prediction: Martin Scorcese

PEACE, Mike

Preference:
1. Clint Eastwood
2. Alexander Payne
3. Martin Scorcese
4. Taylor Hackford
5. Mike Leigh (unfocused direction didn't deserve a nomination but at least better than other contenders such as Marc Forster, Michael Moore, or Zhang Yimou)

Prediction:
1. Martin Scorcese
2. Clint Eastwood (even if MDB wins best picture, Scorcese will still win director)
3-5. No chance in hell.

Thought I'd post this here. These are the predictions/"should wins" that were just shown today on Access Hollywood by their so called "expert":

Best Picture
Will Win: Million Dollar Baby
Should Win: Finding Neverland

Best Director
Will Win: Clint Eastwood
Should Win: Martin Scorcese

Best Actor
Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Jamie Foxx

Best Actress
Will Win: Hilary Swank
Should Win: Imelda Staunton

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Morgan Freeman
Should Win: Thomas Haden Church

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Laura Linney

PEACE, Mike

Oprah made the following predictions. (she was on the Tonight Show last night)

Best Picture: Either Million Dollar Baby or the Aviator

She wouldn't be surprised at all to see either win, but both her and Jay Leno agree that M$B is the movie that grips you more of the two.

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx

Best Actress: Hilary Swank (who she said was the most genuine person she has ever met)

Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman

I can't for the life of me remember who she picked for supporting actress, and she didn't pick director.

The expert on the CBS morning show this morning predicted M$B to clean up, except for best actor.

Should and will win is Clint Eastwood, he will be picking up his deserved Oscar for this years Million Dollar Baby and last years Mystic River, which he was ROBBED of.