Am I the only one that thinks you need to shut up? =;

AWESOME, all were my first or second choices to win. Great news for Freeman, further solidfication that Foxx has the Oscar in the bag, more awards thankfully leaving Benning quite alone in place of Swank's brilliant performance, and two awards for Million Dollar Baby.

Wow! Sideways wins Best Ensemble. That's a real shocker! THis will be the most exciting Oscar Best Picture race of the last decade...

No, you're by far not the only one.

Ended up going to a dinner party last night so I had to Tivo the show.

OF COURSE I'm excited at Sideways winning the top prize. Maybe The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby will cancel each other out and Sideway will pull an Annie Hall on their arses.

Loved Morgan's speech, really loved Jamie's story about Denzel. Hiliary's speech wasn't very good and Clint continued his streak of inarticulate presentations.

Lots of surprises on the tv side, Garner, CSI, what wild choices.

I'd be feeling pretty good about my chances if I were Million Dollar Baby. Eastwood won the DGA, and now Swank and Freeman win SAG awards. The movie is heading into the Oscars with some strong momentum, while The Aviator seems to be heading into the final weeks with more of a wimper than a roar.

Anything could still happen, but I'd place my money on M$B at this point.

Here is some commentary from http://oscarwatch.com (specifics have been highlighted for those who can't handle the truth #-o )

What the SAGs Told Us

Nothing. Not a damned thing.

Locked and Loaded: Jamie Foxx and Hilary Swank

Still up in the air - Best Picture, looking like a toss up between Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator, leaning heavily toward Million Dollar Baby

Best Director - Clint Eastwood, most likely but Martin Scorsese could pull a last-minute steal, as could Alexander Payne

Supporting categories - it is a toss up - a complete toss up, though Morgan Freeman seems like the strongest at this point, being swept up in the heat Million Dollar Baby is generating.

Supporting Actress is completely unknown - Natalie Portman wasn't nominated for a SAG (nor was Clive Owen). Cate Blanchett took the SAG but it doesn't really mean much - there's still Virginia Madsen, Sophie Okonedo and Laura Linney - it's anyone's game at this point.

What will impact the awards - the only thing left is the BAFTAs - and the WGA's. But the BAFTAs will be televised, written about and talked about. That is really the last chance for The Aviator to make a last-minute rally.

The good feeling for Million Dollar Baby is palpable at this point - and it could end up taking every major award at the Oscars (though Best Actor belongs to Foxx).

Now, if the same was being said about The Aviator, I'm sure Aviator supporters would be sure to remind everybody, but I fully expect them to not acknowledge that their movie is, right now, getting creamed, and it's chances are dwindling by the day. It's denial, but probably understandable, considering their passion for movies.

I'm happy you highlighted that last bit for yourself. =D>

I guess you didn't notice that I left it highlighted all by myself for others. :flex:

Comeon guys, I just want to see one person be a standup enough person to admit it out loud, even though it's not what you are hoping for. Million Dollar Baby is noticeably the favorite for 4 of the big awards. (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor) Even last year, while really feeling Mystic River was the most deserving, as Eastwood was as director, I still said that Peter Jackson and ROTK would win. Let's see a little of that spirit from some of you this year. It helps the healing begin. :razz:

About one thing in the Oscarwatch article, I don't agree with the importance of the BAFTA this year. Million Dollar Baby isn't even in the running, The Aviator SHOULD have a near sweep there, which won't matter much to AMPAS voters. It's an unfair playing field.

I'll take the bait. :wink:

The problem is Mav that there still isn't a clear front runner. Last year isn't a good comparison, because besides a few rogues, EVERYONE knew ROTK would win.

Even the Oscarwatch article is split.

"Still up in the air - Best Picture, looking like a toss up between Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator, leaning heavily toward Million Dollar Baby

Best Director - Clint Eastwood, most likely but Martin Scorsese could pull a last-minute steal, as could Alexander Payne."

There was no toss up last year, no mention of last minute steals. It was clear cut, no room for decision unless theoretical.

It would be great to be able to say, "yeah, my film is going to win no matter what so own up people." My love for Sideways has no bounds. But I realize either M$B or The Aviator could win.

But the fact is, this year is unlike any in recent memory. There are 5 films, some of which have been critically praised equally, and awarded more or less equally.

No matter how much someone can want their pick to be a juggernaut like Forrest Gump or ROTK or Titanic, it just isn't the case.

For 3 out of 4 it is an easy choice, for 4 out of 4, I at least also agreed.

I don't want to start a seperate thread - Have you posted the winners anywhere?

There IS a clear frontrunner. Saying there isn't is just denial. It may not be the overwhelming frontrunner that ROTK was, but that doesn't mean it's not clear.

How kind of you.

The first page is updated.

SAG Winners
Film:

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Ensemble: Sideways

Television:
Ensemble in a Drama Seris - CSI
Actor in a Drama Series - Jerry Orbach, Law and Order
Actress in a Drama Series - Jennifer Garner, Alias
Best Actress in a Miniseries TV - Glenn Close, Lion in Winter
Actor in a Miniseries TV - Geoffrey Rush, Life and Death of Peter Sellars
Best Actor - comedy series - Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Best Actress - comedy series - Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives
Ensemble - comedy series - Desperate Housewives

Seems except for Sideways, they gave it to the expected big choice.

SAG Winners
Film:

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Ensemble: Sideways

Television:
Ensemble in a Drama Seris - CSI - Nice for the tv ratings champs
Actor in a Drama Series - Jerry Orbach, Law and Order - Didn't he die, I wonder if that had any effect.
Actress in a Drama Series - Jennifer Garner, Alias
Best Actress in a Miniseries TV - Glenn Close, Lion in Winter
Actor in a Miniseries TV - Geoffrey Rush, Life and Death of Peter Sellars
Best Actor - comedy series - Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Best Actress - comedy series - Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives
Ensemble - comedy series - Desperate Housewives - Don't watch but this is a hit with everyone - wonder if it will be just this season or for future seasons.

And Mr. Loyal with the above remark, I must say. That before I asked about the winners, I did check both the first and last post. And it wasn't there. In just re-, I see that you posted the winners on the first page, after I asked about it.

So that was very kind of you to post the winners after I asked for them.

Thanks.

For Supporting Actor, yes.

For Actress, yes.

For Picture, I definately would think Million is the favorite.

I'm not so sure about Director yet.

Scorsese has been nominated 5 times, and has so far lost 4 times. Peter Weir has been nominated 5 times, he has lost all 5 times. It wouldn't be impossible for Socrsese to lose.

My original feeling was that he would get a pity award for directing, with M$B winning best picture. Now, I think his chances have dwindled. Sure, he helmed the only spectacle this year, in which a lot more had to be done than just worrying about the actors and story, but that DGA and Golden Globe that Eastwood won doesn't tell me that anybody has been more impressed with Marty's work in the Aviator than what Clint did with M$B. It's definitely the picture that's being talked about. Even here, just look at the size of the M$B thread compared to the Aviator thread.

Scorsese has been a victim of his own Oscar success. He appears to be a frequent nominee, with no signs of never being able to deliver again. He's still very vital as a filmmaker, so he's got plenty of chances left to have "his turn".

Can the academy , who adores Eastwood , really deny him two years in a row, especially after the GG and DGA supported him? That doesn't sound like a likely scenerio. I wouldn't call him a lock, but a clear favorite.

To be fair, M$B is the newer film. And you've created a large amount of the discussion.

Too bad all this debate won't translate into viewers for the Oscars. #-o

And at one time, the Aviator was a new picture, and nobody generated any discussion, because nobody cared.

You know how you can tell that M$B is the clear frontrunner? Because besides you, who is really only trying to keep the fires burning, and doesn't really believe for a second that Aviator isn't falling back quickly, there isn't anybody, Levy, Lecter, or any of the vocal Aviator supporters, who are chiming in to say that it's in the front of the pack. They know better, and don't want to look foolish by saying otherwise.

M$B won two very important awards. The actor's guild has spoken, and they have shown their support for the actors in M$B, as the director's guild did for Eastwood last week. We all know the ensemble award isn't as big as the individual acting awards. It was created to award other deserving actors , just not the most deserving, unless the individual actor winners win both categories. It's a secondary acting award. Oscar has no ensemble award to hand out. It was a blow to the Aviator to not win that ensemble award. If it would have won it, it still would be behind M$B, but as it stands right now, The Aviator is pinning it's hopes on support for a supporting actress and a golden globe win for best picture, that was won before the guild awards.

Actually, I'm not a vocal Aviator supporter. ](*,)

yawn

Where did I say you were?

You are a vocal anti Eastwood supporter. You showed that clearly last year with your comments, and this year as well. When somebody is always taking little jabs at somebody, it's not hard to tell that they are really rooting hard against him, so in that respect, you would love nothing more than seeing the Aviator win, since it's the only real shot you would have at seeing Eastwood lose.

You, and the vocal Aviator supporters, can just continue taking your subtle shots at M$B in the box office forum, while trying to build up the Aviator as you do. You can even pretend it's a coincidence, and not by design. Either way, the academy is surely making note of it. \:D/

Stalk my posts much?

Hey fucker, since you like to post articles from Oscarwatch.com, here's a new one from their front page.

With just a few weeks to go, The Aviator passed Ray to become, so far, the biggest box office champ of the five best pic contenders. Earning money at a decent rate, The Aviator has earned $75 million to Ray's $73. Million Dollar Baby is still at the bottom but will probably pass Finding Neverland next week. Sideways is the one to watch - currently in the lead where it comes to best pic wins - the Globe, the Critics Choice and now the SAG - missed the DGA, which is crucial, and the PGA, also crucial. But it could become the winner at the Oscars if the same dynamic happens that took place at the SAG - a sort of split vote scenario, with The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby pulling away significant votes but the Sideways camp being the largest and most enthusiastic of all.

\:D/ =D> =D> =D>