Ah hah! I knew someone was going to site that one. And I will say that they did award The Pianist by giving the Oscar to unknown Adrian Brody for best actor. And I think they mentally justified that because they had recently awarded a better Holocaust movie, Schindler's List, and they hadn't given one to a musical in a long time. And I believe factors like that do come into play.

Predicting the Academy is all about psychology. And I think that after last year, in which there is a sense that they didn't give BP to the best picture, that this year they will be double freaking back flipping to give this to the film with the most merit.

So United 93 or Flags of our Fathers are in good shape, IMHO.

United 93 - the first major 9/11 film with astonishingly good reviews, but a director who's never been nominated, and a cast of unknowns.

Flags of Our Fathers - World War II! (This gives them a chance to make up for being tricked by the Weinsteins into voting for Shakespeare In Love over Saving Private Ryan... OTOH, they just gave one to Eastwood, so they'll weigh that as well.)

Also, of course, a lot depends on how well the various Oscar campaigns go. And which picture has the most clout. (Crash seems to have had a huge advantage in that department. It was able to muscle it's way past the other three contenders so that it became the alternative of choice to Brokeback.)

As for Dream Girls? Maybe it will just knock the socks off everyone. And I have no doubt it will have a lot of studio muscle behind it. But seriously, if you were an Oscar voter... A film about 9/11?... A film about The Supremes? After last year? Hmmmmm.

And YES, I do think they think that way. These are the people who gave Best Picture to three of the most boring movies I have ever seen, Out of Africa, The Last Emperor and The English Patient because it made them feel all smart and stuff to vote for them.

Hey, I'm just saying because early prognosticating is fun. And it's clearly way too early to write off the first film of the year about which anyone is even whispering the word "Oscar". Especially given the subject matter.

no Cujoy, no.

Of the 20 films to top 90 on Metacritic this decade:

Best Picture Nominees:
1. Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, The 2003 94
2. Sideways 2004 94
3. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2000 93
4. Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The 2001 92
5. Gosford Park 2001 90

Multiple Nominations:
1 Triplets of Belleville, The 2003 91
2. Incredibles, The 2004 90
3. Almost Famous 2000 90

One Nomination:
1. Spirited Away 2002 94
2. Before Sunset 2004 90
3. American Splendor 2003 90
4. Capturing the Friedmans 2003

No Nominations:
1. Yi Yi (A One and a Two) 2000 92
2. Werckmeister Harmonies 2001 92
3. Moolaadé 2004 91
4. Fast Runner, The 2002 91
5. Beau Travail 2000 91
6. My Voyage to Italy 2001 90

Disqualified:
1. Bloody Sunday 2002 90

To Be Seen:
1. United 93 2006 90

Of the six films to completely miss nominations, 5 are foreign films, and 1 is a four hour documentary. And of the 4 single nommers, one was an anime film (Never considered outside of Animation) and another a documentary. The other two got Screenply noms.

And you say we should filter our emotions when it comes to this movie.

I completely forgot Bloody Sunday was not eligible!!!


That's good for United 93.

They might throw it a director nom or something to show they acknowledge it but United 93 won't win anything and won't get any other major nominations.

Whoever has seen it knows it plays out more like a documentary and a plainly "factual" unravelling of events than anything the Academy has ever rewarded in the past (eve rewarded with a nominations) or at least recent past!

Hmm, the second weekend drop the second weekend is too heavy to ignore. Now it is actually in danger of not crossing $30m. Ouch. I may have to take what I said back soon.

muhahahahahahahahaha.

j/k

moment of silence for United 93's Oscar nomination chances.

Sometimes I don't like you.

Make that a big chance

Well, apply my argument to "movies that made $25 million with such reviews" and it still works.

Hehe, United 93 pushed Sideways out of IMDB's Top 250. That in particular should amuse Loyal

I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea what the IMDB Top 250 is. I'm assuming it's their top 250 films (duh), but who grades it?

What?!?!?! You are a movie fan with an internet connection too?! Lol...

Seriously, though...hehe..it is voted by IMDB users, but it is not simply just the average that counts because thenfilms like LOTR would always be on top due to the fanboy factor. They have a "special formula" to calculate the averages in which the votes of the IMDB staff and the Top 1,000 Users obviously count more...

http://www.imdb.com/chart/top

Nobody's gonna remember U93 by June, let alone next March...

I think not for Best Picture, Director, and Writer noms; but it should have Act(or/ress) noms and other technical noms. Trust me, depending on how low Academy votees are in their minds and what the movie tells, it may have chance to win several noms, but not Best Picture.

I am pretty sure no acting noms for this one...

Especially for the actors who played the guys who hijacked the plane - just taking a role like that is a betrayal to their Arabian brothers - another visual clue for Americans to focus prejudice upon...

Agree. Director and/or Picture is still a strong possibility though and Editing might be already close to lock, I think, along with other technical nominations...

I think this movie wasn't controversial enough.

It needed a lot more press if it wanted Oscar nominees. There was some coverage, but it was nothing like with Fahrenheit 9/11...

Maybe you disagree.

yeah, this is actualy one of those movies where the lack of some consensus would only help it to go further in the box office and with the Oscars (like Crash)


its RT (and metacritic) rating might be way too high, ironically..


on the other hand, given those metacritic statistics, it's also too high to pass unnoticed at the end of the year..

It could be one of those films that pops back up again at the end of the year, due to the great reviews. I mean, one reviewer (Berardinelli) even said that United 93 would be making his top 10 list at the end of the year, and said it would almost certainly be near the top. Not many critics would flat out say that.

But at this point, I still don't think it will get anything really, since it is not Oscar material.

PEACE, Mike.

I can't believe some people are already writing this off.

When the end of the year top 10 lists start to come out....U93 will be on many of them.

just got a chance to see it yesterday and from initial feeling's id say not to likely. it's a brilliantly made piece of cinema and a worthy tribute to 9/11 but there was an oddly detached coldness to the thing barring maybe the last 5 minute's that leave's me saying it might get a best picture Nom but I can't see any win's. I thought Bloody Sunday was the better of Greengrass's re-anactment movies from the evidence.

I can't believe this is a likely Oscar nominee. I don't care how good the reviews are, how does a movie with a piddling $30 million gross suddenly become a contender? It won't happen and especially after last year when the other complaint about Crash ($53 million gross) was that hardly any of the American public went to see it in theatres. Now U93's supporters are claiming that their movie - which grossed more than $20 million less - is a contender? What planet are they on? It's perfectly clear most of the audience out there didn't have the slightest interest in spending two hours reliving the experience of 9/11. That lack of commercial appeal will kill it stone dead in the eyes of the Academy. Sure, we can all agree that U93 is well made, bursting with integrity and yadda, yadda, yadda. Fine. Won't make any difference though.

If UA93 is nominated, I'm done.