I think everyone is underestimating The New World. Who cares if Colin Farrell was the lead in Alexander. IMO, that's perceived more as Oliver Stone's failure.

Really? Can I ask what would have been nominated then? The Pacifier maybe? I never saw these big oscar push for movies last year except Aviator.

Actually Universal pushed extremely hard for Ray to keep it in the top 5. If Hotel Rwanda had started its campaign earlier or as strong as what Ray got, it would've been nominated. With their savvy performances on Seabiscuit and Ray, Universal has to be considered the best Oscar studio now after Miramax is gone. I'd actually argue that The Aviator didn't need or get as much push since it had the frontrunner status very much in advance. It's the ones in the No. 3 to 7 range where the effort really shows. Here are how I ranked last year's best picture nominees in term of studio pushes:

1. Ray
2. Finding Neverland (it was fading, but Miramax spent a lot of time to stop the bleeding)
3. Million Dollar Baby (good release date and great strategy all the way around)
4. The Aviator
5. Sideways (Critics pretty much made sure it got in when it unprecedently swept almost all every critic award)

Except me of course hehe. And yeah I think it can do well, real well. Farrel isn't that bad of an actor either, a la Phone Booth, and Irene Berdard as Pochahontas looks strong as well. I think that if any movie can challenge the top 3 to take Best Picture, its The New World. Watch out for it.

The only thing that potentially stands in The Corpse Bride's way of the Best Animated Feature Oscar (unless, of course, it turns out to be crap) is Wallace And Gromit.

I also disagree that Brokeback Mountain's subject matter will hurt it's chances. If anything, it'll help.

The animated nominations list is almost locked up now. In already is:

Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit

It won't matter who the third nominee is as they won't beat those two. The last spot anyways is between Madagascar, Chicken Little and Howls Moving Castle. I'm thinking Chicken Little.

Corpse Bride and Wallace and Gromit are by no means locked. Especially not Wallace and Gromit. There has never been an animated (long form) film nominated that was clay or stopmotion. It has all been cell or CG.

Wallace and Gromit will also not be as much of a hit as everybody here thinks it will be.

Madagascar will be nominated.

I think The Corpse Bride will be nominated, and maybe win, but it is definately not a sure thing.

Oops, forgot about Corpse Bride for the animated category. Hopefully that and Chicken Little will be nominated to shut out Madagascar. (unlikely, hmph)
I'm thinking Howl can manage a nomination. (and a win! ...yeah right) If Madagascar is nominated over Howl, that would be... blah.

Looks like we can safely leave Oliver Twist off any predictions. I can't believe how quiet the buzz is when it's opening in a little more than two weeks.

It's early, of course, but Proof and Gwenyth Paltrow are off to a very strong start with critics.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/proof/

A strong start for A History of Violence, too.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/history_of_violence/

Here's a big article about Jarhead. Perhaps some insights on how it may be perceived.

http://www.calendarlive.com/movies/cl-c ... e-channels

To be fair, the reason all the longform nominees have been cell or CG is because there hasn't actually been any feature length clay or stopmotion films since the category was unveiled.

As for Wallace and Gromit not being a lock, I agree. But then, nothing's a lock. Anything at this point has to be conjecture based on past events and current buzz, and right now I'd put my money on Wallace and Gromit being nominated over Madagascar. Hell, right now I'd put my money on Chicken Little and The Corpse Bride being nominated over Madagascar. Madagascar slipped up by being a bit mediocre, the ball is very much in the other films' court now.

Also, don't forget that all three of the Wallace and Gromit shorts were nominated for Best Animated Short - with two of them winning it. Aardman animation itself has three Oscars on the shelf (the other being for Creature Comforts), with seven nominations in total. Their one feature length film, Chicken Run, has a 97% fresh rating (out of 112 reviews) on Rotten Tomatoes and was second only to Dark Days (100% with 24 reviews) for the year 2000.

Assuming the film is as critically lauded as Park's previous efforts, I see no reason why this wouldn't be able to give them their eighth Oscar nom.

thanks Mav for all those links.

I really hope Gwyneth and Viggo duke it out all the way through the Oscar season. I think they both have excellent chances in what seems to be a fairly weak year.

By the way, I saw the DeRealied trailer when I went to see an Unfinished Life last night and it looked pretty dran good!

As for An Unfinished Life... I think it was a well made movie. I was a bit disappointed in the Constant Gardener, so you can assume I will grade Life higher, but I don't really think it has much of any Oscar chance (not that anyone was saying it was a front-runner). It was a bit too slow and mellow to really get in any race. Before seeing it, the weakest chance I thought it had (out of the minimal chances at a nod it had) was Morgan Freeman because he recently won for a similar role. But, after seeing it I think he is the strongest chance for a nod for this film.

Contrary to last year, where we had bad early buzz about expected contenders and thus paved the way for December releases to dominate, most of the contenders are coming out firing and delivering this year: Walk the Line, Jarhead, Brokeback Mountain. With as good WOM as they are getting, this is putting a lot of pressures on the late releases. Memoirs of a Geisha is especially vulnerable, but Munich isn't fully safe yet. If most of the December releases are equally good, we're looking at one fantastic award season with diverse opinions unlike last year.

It's about damn time that trailer surfaced (you meant Derailed, right?), and a great box office strategy by Marimax to showcase it before a movie playing at 139 theaters.

Who knows, maybe it's got potential to roll out slowly for awards season.

Wow... i don't know how I came up with Derealied, lol. Yup, it was Derailed. I don't think they're aiming for awards season though. Looks like you're simple ol' lustful thriller.

After reading all the coverage of the festival, I've come to the following conclusions:

-ELIZABETHTOWN is over. Done. Caput.
-BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN may have some life in it, yet. It should contend, even if it just misses Best Picture.
-WALK THE LINE is the first lock, barring an unprecedented box office belly flop.
-CORPSE BRIDE is looking like the Animated Feature Winner.
-MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS is a real contender in all major categories.

Here are a few Oscar possibilities...

Proof

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/proof/?critic=all

Reviews counted: 9
Fresh: 8 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7.4/10

A History of Violence

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/history ... critic=all

Reviews counted: 10
Fresh: 9 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7.8/10

Oliver Twist

Reviews counted: 6
Fresh: 5 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7/10

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1000549 ... critic=all

Maybe it is just me but I felt that the campaign for The Aviator focused more on the director. It was almost, to me at least, that they were guilting the academy into a nomination because Martin Scorcese has been nominated and lost so many times before. Of course that may also be because I'm into these movie circles and such and that is certainly what the sentiment was among some people.

Like I said it could just be me.

I'd disagree. Gangs of New York was much more guilty of that than The Aviator was. GONY wouldn't have been nominated if it hadn't been directed by Marty, but Miramax kept using exactly what you said until people were tired of it after nominations, and it ended up winning nothing even with all those nominations. With Aviator, they learned the lesson, and it also helped that it is a better film.

Every review I've read for Walk the Line is heaping praises on it. I haven't read a single negative thing yet. This looks like it will be a force to reckon with.

I'd disagree with that last statement. I thought the film was very poorly made personally, but that is a story for another day. I wasn't tracking box office and awards around the time of GONY so I can't comment on that.

EVERYONE is praising Reese Witherspoon, too, and she is my pick, along with Phoenix, to walk away with the Oscar. I think Walk the Line is going to be HUGE, and it's the film I'm putting my support behind. (unless it sucks, which I see as a 0% chance of happening)

I should say The Aviator is perceived as a much better film. Objectively, it ended up being one of the top 5 most critically acclaimed films of the year, something GONY didn't come close to. It became much easier to sell the movie to the academy. With GONY, they didn't have much choice except for using Marty's name and his poor Oscar record.