- I think Upside of Anger / Shopgirl are correct.

- Think In Her Shoes and Pride & Prejudice is alittle wierd. Pride & Prejudice is more on the drama side than Shoes.

My whacked out predictions that will be shut down tomorrow :

Picture, Drama
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich

Alt: King Kong

Picture, Comedy/Musical
The 40 Year Old Virgin
The Family Stone
The Producers
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line

Alt: Pride & Prejudice

Actor, Drama
Eric Bana, Munich
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Heath Ledger, Broekback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Alt: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

Actor, Comedy/Musical
Steve Carrell, The 40 Year Old Virgin
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Nathan Lane, The Producers
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast On Pluto
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

Alt: Johnny Depp, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Actress, Drama
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Claire Danes, Shopgirl
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica* (Replace with Charlize Theron, North Country if Comedy)
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Alt: Naomi Watts, King Kong

Actress, Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica* (Replace with Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale if Drama)
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Alt: Julianne Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio

Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash

Alt: William Hurt, A History of Violence

Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Diane Keaton,The Family Stone
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)


Alt: Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha

Director
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
James Mangold, Walk the Line
Steven Spielberg, Munich

Alt: Peter Jackson, King Kong

Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Match Point
Munich
The Squid and the Whale

Alt: Memoirs of a Geisha

Kong Kong Kong

Its fate will be decided tomorrow, I think. All three LOTR's were nominated and Jackson was nominated for all three, as well.

using Chris' nominations, with most of the possible popular Oscar nominations in the Comedy / Musical category, another actress can sneak in for a Drama Actress Win in these GG.


Actress, Drama
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Claire Danes, Shopgirl
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica* (Replace with Charlize Theron, North Country if Comedy)
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Alt: Naomi Watts, King Kong

Actress, Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica* (Replace with Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale if Drama)
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Alt: Julianne Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio

Kong's fate won't be decided tomorrow, I think.

Kong is a late player to the party, most of all the pundits (Oscarwatch, Golden Globes, MCN) seem to think that it won't be nominated but that it will be much more appealing to the Academy.

Not all Oscar nominees are nominated at the Globes, but it has been awhile. We'll see.

I don't think Kong can survive being shut out at Globes. It is really the wild card that could get either 0 or 4 major noms.

Regardless, it will be sad to see Memoirs with a Golden Globe drama nomination.

Almost disgraceful.

I have a problem thinking that LFG will get Crash an Oscar nom, I also have a problem thinking that Memoirs of a Geisha will snag an Oscar nom. I have a larger problem with the fact that there is no tech heavy nod.

All these things are bizarre.

Of course a giant gorilla movie is bizarre too.

Yeah, all of these awards/nominations are so early, I am also worried that Memoirs will snag a GG Best Drama nomination simply because of premature voting on films that were perceived to be good, but judging on critic response, really aren't.

I'm going to die if Crash gets a Best Drama nomination, and it probably will tomorrow, so consider me dead.

PEACE, Mike.

Don;t tell me you hated it too!

Honestly, I would sell King Kong down the river to ensure Good Night and Good Luck and A History of Violence nominated for Oscar. Being that I haven't seen Brokeback or Munich, at this point, at least it looks like I will have one film to root for.

And one growing threat that will make me absolutely hate every minute of the rest of the year (Crash). I would be happier with Cinderella Man.

Did I mention I hate Crash?

Did I mention your endowement has the size of your avatar?

Final Predictions:

Picture - Drama
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
Munich

alt: Memoirs of a Geisha

Picture - Musical/Comedy
Casanova
Mrs. Henserson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line

alt: Rent

Director
Woody Allen, Match Point
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich

alt: Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener

Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich

alt: Match Point

Actor - Drama
Eric Bana, Munich
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

alt: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Actor - Musical/Comedy
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Heath Ledger, Casanova
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast On Pluto
Bill Murray, Broken Flowers
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

alt: Steve Carrell, The 40 Year Old Virgin

Actress - Drama
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Charlize Theron, North Country
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

alt: Claire Danes, Shopgirl

Actress - Musical/Comedy
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightly, Pride & Prejudice
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale

alt: Jennifer Aniston, Rumor Has It

Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

alt: William Hurt, A History of Violence

Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

alt: Maria Bello, A History of Violence

No, I don't! Infact, I think I have it at a B or B+ when I first saw it and it still remains like that on my 2005 list and I don't think I'll change it. I like the film. But I still had a sort of huge problem with the way too coincidental screenplay, and I do not think whatsoever that Crash is worthy of being called one of the 5 best dramas of the year. Nuh-uh.

PEACE, Mike.

lol. I don't get why this film has divided so many people on its merits!
Some hailed it as one fo the best, and others trashed it as one of the most pretentious and overrated in years.
I, personally, have not seen a better film yet. I don't get why people can't see beyond the "coincidence" excuse and just realize what it's trying to portray is past little contrivances.

Wait, you threw Kong and Cinderella Man off for Match Point??????????????

I guess we'll see tomorrow!

I think cinderella man has a decent shot at a nom tomorrow. If it's gonna get anything thrown its way, it's this. But Crash really takes alot away from it just because they were both early releases.

Crash is looking like a relly safe bet. Would I dare say it has a chance to win? It is all Hollywood people voting.

I'm all for coincidences in film and all, but this film was just ridiculous. And that wasnt even my biggest problem with it. :O (But that's for another thread (like the one in Critic))

I don't think Match Point will get a Picture nom. Allen should get a Director nom, though.

Munich really needs to win GG to solidify its status as the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar.

BTW

Final Predictions:

Picture - Drama
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich

alt: King Kong

Picture - Musical/Comedy
The Family Stone
Mrs. Henserson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line

alt: The Producers

Director
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich

alt: Peter Jackson, King Kong

I won't do the others. Because I always suck there, except I think Terrence will get a nom somewhere.

Hmmm...yeah. Mine would look exactly like andaroo's. Just that I'd have KK instead of Geisha there and I'd have Allen instead of Cronenberg.

King Kong is in the "alt" space because I'm cynical. Really, I'm totally not a fanboy! I would rather Cinderella Man and A History of Violence or March of the Penguins or Stealth nominated instead of Crash.

Match Point is gonna get Pic, Dir, sup actress, and screenplay at least.

What would happen if that were the case? chances go up at all? no?

Crash should get at least four noms (Suporting Actor (at least one of them), Picture, Screenplay, Song). Maybe more.

They do, but I don't see it getting Picture.

GNGL, Brokeback Mountain and Munich are locks.

We have King Kong, Geisha and Crash for the last two spots. All of them are more likely than Match Point. Crash has been getting too much love to be ignored. So we have King Kong and Geisha for the last spot. Could go to each.