PLEASE let Atonement get a nomination I really don't want it to get snubbed. I mean, TWBB, No Country and Juno are all in my top ten for the year, but Atonement is one of the best movies I've seen in years. It would be a massive shame if it was overlooked.

Is there any hope left for it?

I definitley see Into the Wild getting in. It's been as big a guilds behemoth as anything so far, no reason why it wouldn't keep running with the torch. AG is just a flat duck, although I do think the cinematography would deserve attention.

I'm not positive on Bourne either.

American Gangster? Nah

I keep going back and forth on Atonement. This is the Academy after all. They chose Crash!

I'm thinking it's going to be wise to go with my original predictions and not waver despite EXTREMELY strong arguments for Michael Clayton and The Diving Bell.

I'm 90% sure this is not going to be the line-up but you know what... I'm not that much more confident with the other line-ups either. So, here it is.

Atonement
Into the Wild
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

The only thing that may possibly change my mind still is the PGA. I'm also about 90% sure that Michael Clayton is getting in but I want to be stubborn.

That lineup would be ideal, since Michael Clayton definitely does not deserve a BP nom.

Just saw Atonement. I really hope it pulls through and gets the nomination, but it hasn't had much support lately.

Michael Clayton got in the art direction guild. Art direction! It's making BP.

Like I said in the chat, I'm not feelin' Into the Wild. I think it'll get snubbed.

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton (or Diving Bell)
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

crap. now i have to go watch atonement tonight.

You know what.

Fuck the guilds.

My predictions are
Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild

and Michael Clayton vs Diving Bell fighting for the last spot. If one of them but not the other gets a PGA nom tomorrow, that's what I go with.

Ay ay ay ay ay. I have never been so torn in predicting.

Like I said in the chat, I think No Country for Old Men is the only lock to get nominated.

I can say with some confidence that the nominees will come from a group of No Country, TWBB, Juno, Atonement, Michael Clayton, Into the Wild, and Diving Bell. That's pretty much all I've got right now, though.

1. No Country
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Into the Wild
4. The Diving Bell
5. Michael Clayton


6. Juno
7. Atonement

Poor, deluded Atonement fans.

This is just 80-odd bad "journalists." Denounce the power of the guilds at your own peril.

I stick with my current five, but I am beginning to wonder if Atonement can get in over TWBB or Michael Clayton. NCFOM, Into the Wild and Diving Bell all still strike me as strong.

If Atonement gets in, I just might bust my own nut on accident from pure excitement.

Still only 7 contenders, but I'm feeling more like this now:

1. No Country for Old Men
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Into the Wild
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Atonement
6. Michael Clayton
7. Juno

I think Into the Wild is going to end up getting the short end of the stick at the expense of either Atonement or Diving Bell.

I don't know HOW but Michale Clayton has gained so much momentum to not get in. The PGS should confirm it.

I don't see how Michael Clayton would get in and not Into the Wild. Into the Wild has much more guild support, especially from SAG. If anything, I don't think Michael Clayton will be making it in. Blood, No Country, Into the Wild I would put in the top 3 slots, with Diving Bell and Atonement potentially taking up the final two.

But who knows.

Peace,
Mike

I think Michael Clayton is weak. TWBB has more passion, and has been mentioned in six guilds, compared to Clayton's five.

Michael Clayton strikes me as very Constant Gardener-like. Constant Gardener also had nods in:
ACE, ADG, SAG, WGA, Motion Picture Sound Editors, as well as in Broadcast Film Critics Association (BP, BSActress), Satalite (where it won two, over MC's one), London Critics Circle Film Awards...

Hell, these two movies even have the same IMDB rating!

Yet, even though TCG was a BP-Drama nod at the Globes, was it ever considered a serious BP contender? Nope.

So, if the lineup is:
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
...that's a 4/5 DGA match. Not bad in a crazy year.

Also...

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120601

Being John Malkovich. It had everything going for it. Got zilch at the Globes, and didn't get a BP nom. The Green Mile replaced it as the fifth nom, even though it only got mentions at DGA, Motion Picture Sound Editors, and SAG. Everything else it got was like Blockbuster Image Awards and People's Choice

Yes, but Constant Gardener had no DGA, and Ralph Fiennes never got any heat as a Best Actor nominee, which was indicative of a general lack of strength. Meanwhile, Michael Clayton has had constant attention paid to all three leads, including Tilda Swinton's small-if-effective performance, in addition to all the guild noms. And, unlike Constant Gardener, this was not a showy directorial job, yet it still showed up at DGA. Leaving out of top 5 at this point is denial.

Being John Malkovich was a real snub. Which Michael Clayton would be.

I agree... I wouldn't be surprised if any of those 6 films missed. The only thing I can say is, Juno feels the weakest.

THIS YEAR IS BANANAS

I don't think Michael Clayton will get in...I just don't feel it.

I would really like to see this list

No Country for Old Men
Juno
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Near-final predictions:

Lock, Baby, Lock

1. No Country for Old Men- GG loss is the first real stumble. Considering that it has won pretty much everywhere else, it should at this point be considered the frontrunner.

Likely, but room for error:

2. Into the Wild- Despite bo GG nod, it's received plenty of guild love. A PGA mention would probably put it in "lock" territory.

3. There Will Be Blood- Gaining steam rapidly, and if the Academy and the critics are of like viewpoints, it's a threat for the win. But its hateful nature and late release date could work against it.

4. Michael Clayton- It's popped up just about everywhere so far. It really has benefitted from the early release date. However, the thing working against it is that it isn't really a big emotions movie- and that could come back to get it.

Vulnerable:

5. Juno- Lots of buzz and the hip pick, but it could still be too immature for Oscar.

Still has a decent shot:

6. Atonement- GG win over No Country shows that there could still be some passion behind it, but it hasn't really had an encouraging performance with the guilds.

Nomination Morning Surprises?

7. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- Julian Schnabel winning director at the Globes is definitely something, especially against the overdue Coen Brothers. The movie does have its passionate supporters, but enough of them?

8. Sweeney Todd- GG win in Musical/Comedy is encouraging, but the winner in that category has failed to be nominated here for each of the last two years and this is even less accessible or buzzed about as those films.

Longshots:

9. American Gangster- No PGA nod = DEAD. PGA Nod = Unlikely, but possible.

10. Hairspray- See above.

If the Academy was beyond cool:

- Zodiac: After some more thought, this is still my #1 movie of 2007. It's filmmaking at its most superb. But apart from some screenplay mentions, it hasn't done anything to this point.

Atonement will get Best Sound Mixing as well.

Wow, I can't remember anything in Michael Clayton that constitutes art direction. Anybody want to explain its nomination?