I still don't have Little Miss Sunshine being nominated. Departed, Dreamgirls, Babel, Queen, Letters. Unless DGA proves otherwise by snubbing Eastwood, I don't see that 5 being disturbed.

If Eastwood is nominated by the DGA, that gives him a theoretical shot, but with the PGA and SAG chiming in it seems pretty reliable to say that the weakest film of the lot is Eastwood's and even The Queen before Little Miss Sunshine. We won't know til Oscar day of course, but I would qualify anything outside those 5 films at this point as more hope than reality.

Letters may be a case of too little too late.

"Clinches"???? Ever hear of Traffic, The Pianist, or Brokeback Mountain

Dir and screenplay will help, it cetainly no longer clinches.

Not just that, but remember who beat Director and screenplay winner The Pianist: Chicago. You know, Chicago, the Broadway adaptation with that supporting actress win. Although I wonder if Dreamgirls has the support that its predecessor had.

On a purely personal note, I didn't think Dreamgirls was half the musical Chicago was.

You are reading too much into it. Don't read it into it as "definate" read it as a gameplan.

There's really no such thing as "clinches".

I think Dreamgirls has an almost 0% chance of getting Best Director.

Picture...very unlikely as well.

Ugh, I have to see the Queen and Dreamgirls still. eff school and work, I say. : (

Mmm, I don't know. I'd be inclined to say no, just because that'd be a little unorthodox, to stick a performance in there while the other 4 films are still playing clips.

Hmm... I don't think it's taking Best Pic. Depending on the noms (the set five seems all but certain), I think The Departed will ultimately take it.

Members of the Dreamgirls Won't Win Club
1. Me

... you better hope that's not true.

You Dreamgirls peddler.

Well, if you would have let me finish, I would have finished my post:

Members of the People Who Would Be Fine and Dandy About a Dreamgirls Best Pic Nom/Win:
1. Me

But now?

Members of the People Who Would Be Fine and Dandy About a Dreamgirls Best Pic Nom/Win:
0 Members

oh, so now it HAS to be the only other alternative, pertaining to whatever happens in hour four. you spoiler you.

In all seriousness, I don't think Dreamgirls will win. I actually see Babel taking it before Dreamgirls. And trust me, I don't want that. But I got that feeling about The Departed that its momentum will take it into Oscar weekend in February... whichever weekend that may be. Most likely the last.

If I had to rank the chances:

1. The Departed
2. Babel (It has that Crash momentum, even though people saw Crash's coming and speculated it would happen)
3. Dreamgirls
4. The Queen
5. Little Miss Sunshine (breaks my heart to know that it won't win)

Is there any chance in hell that the Academy will completely ignore what everyone is pointing to and nominate a different film (or two)? Children of Men only has one last chance at major recognition, and this is it.

Of the films that are going to be nominated... I would rank them...

01 Dreamgirls
02 The Queen
03 The Departed
04 Little Miss Sunshine
05 Babel

... but that's according to what I like. So while The Departed will win, thus removing the "Martin Scorsese has not won an Oscar curse!" from the universe (for a film he actually deserves it for no less, so it should not stigmatize him!) I would gladly join the People Who Would be fine and Dandy With a Dreamgirls Best Pic Nom/Win, But Are Not Stupid And Realize Departed Is Winning Anyway Club

Well, I know you don't even expect to see Dreamgirls win. You would like it to maybe, but you know The Departed will win.

I think you're being a bit too picky, Loyal. Just take a page from my Children of Men Oscar Clean-up thread. The moment someone posts, make them a member of the club!

By my count, you've already got a a whopping two members. Three including me.

The ranking I gave was what I thought would most likely win (down to what would least likely win). If I had to rank, by my own personal opinion of what should win...

1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Departed
3. Dreamgirls
4. The Queen
5. Babel

Can I have one?

Holy virgin mother of jesus
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Her voice sounds nearly the same live as it does on a studio recorded track.

Jennifer Hudson=awesome

That's only 3-4 members, one of whom is a proven racist that hasn't even seen the film. Another thought Babel was the best film of the year, so his opinion doesn't count. Everyone else is A-OK.

Well, maybe not quite 3-4, but they're beaten out by at least a 10-1 ratio. They just won't shut the hell up.

I WILL admit I have a hard time seeing where she goes from here movie-wise (It hurts debuting in a musical), but her music career has totally taken off.

My only problem with her thus far is she doesn't have a very lively stage presence. She has an amazing voice, yes, but I mean she really just stood in front of the microphone and sang. She could be a bit more...for lack of a better word...animated.

I guess ytou didn't watch her when she was on American Idol, with her hilariously over-the-top facial expressions and bug eyes whenever she performed.

The fact that she's low-key now is a very, very good thing, compared to her stage presence three years ago.

I never watch AI. But, I'm not refering to facial expressions. I mean she is very static on stage, she just kind of stands there really. I don't think she'd be a good live act to see beyond maybe one or two songs ...

Okay, I want to be considered for rejoining. I'm still thinking about it though. Dreamgirls is getting a lot of press, but it's BO isn't where I would expect it to be... HRM.