(And BTW, I'd rather have Greengrass and maybe Iñárritu nominated instead of Condon, there's stronger direction out there, I just don't see that they have necessarily a significant advantage. Maybe Greengrass does a bit because the Critics kudos might pay off with the DGA a bit more than the others, but it's mostly speculation.)

I just can't see a scenario where Dreamgirls doesn't get a BP nomination, and in my mind that automatically makes Condon a player against 3 or 4 unlocked candidates, and if it doesn't get BP, then it will be one of those They Shoot Horses Don't They type of situations.

You forgot the nominations as well. Dreamgirls can barely even get nominated from the critics groups, let alone win like Chicago managed. There's a clear difference.

Of course Dreamgirls is longer. Jennifer Hudson is awesome and has struck everywhere and has been getting both Best Supporting Actress and Best Breakthrough Actress because she's new, which makes Dreamgirls' accomplishments look better at a random glance. It hasn't struck overall as well as Chicago did. I'm not saying Chicago dominated or anything, but it made the bigger splash among films that don't normally hit at the small critics groups at all.

And I don't rank BFCA as a generic "critics awards", because they are in a category of their own. They are much different than your usual critics group.

The reason why I did not bring the BFCA up for comparison is because in Chicago's year, there were only 3 nominees per category at the BFCA and there were less categories at that. You can't compare that year and this year. It's impossible. Even then, Chicago was impressive and won all 3 awards for which it was nominated, including Best Picture. If Dreamgirls wins Best Picture at the BFCA, then we've got a new picture to look at. I doubt that will happen though.

Peace,
Mike.

Just stopping in to show who's been a JHud fan since way back in the AI days
<------ Points to Avatar

Man I remember when I first saw her on Idol and loved her hilariously over-the-top facial expressions when singing. Thank goodness she got rid of that.

Well Dreamgirls is picking up a lot stronger than I thought, it's back in it now. Murphy is probably in front now too with the wacky SAGs results.

I don't really like being anti... any film when it comes to Oscars, but...

I'm pretty sure at this point I'm rooting against Dreamgirls just as strongly as loyal's rooting against United 93.

Maybe.

Yeah, probably not that strongly.

I like Dreamgirls. I do. But... I see all this... hoopla. And I sort of hate it.

I'm 100% against Dreamgirls (even though I haven't seen it - nor do I plan to). Therefore, it won't win.

Pretty sure he does.

But Zing, just to be a well-rounded individual, I think you should see Dreamgirls. Even if I don't really approve of it.

I hate musicals.

But now that you ask, the last film I didn't see that won BP was... Chicago.

Nah, people would be suspicious after my "Little Miss Sunshine is awful" thread when I didn't see it.

How mature.

Rock it.

Zingaling, what musicals have you seen?

Rent, The Phantom of the Opera, West Side Story. First two sucked.

Yeah, judging musicals by Rent and Phantom is the equivalent of judging horror by Stay Alive and The Grudge. I'm not saying you'd love the genre, but I would at least give a chance to a few that don't suck.

I think you'd probably like Chicago, as a Best Picture winner it would be a servicable choice to rent one night... it's entertaining enough, well acted, and there isn't any romance assuming you're not into that. Also Grease is fun. Moulin Rouge and The Sound of Music are my favorite ever, knowing you I'm not sure you'd fall in love with those movies, but they'd be worth a rent. I haven't seen Singing in the Rain but I guess that movie is suppose to kick ass too, so yeah.

Um...you may want to attempt to watch some more. It's not like Rent and The Phantom of the Opera are the pinnacle of movie musicals.

Shack is quite right, that's like saying you hate horror movies because you didn't like The Grudge and Stay Alive.

I think you might actually like Chicago, Zing. It's entertaining and rather darkly funny.

Dreamgirls is on my hit list.

Bang bang.

Yeah. If Rent was the only musical I'd ever seen I'd likely hate the genre too -- not that I hated the movie per se (gave it a B on second viewing) it is just that it isn't indicitive of the genre in general (too bland, I blame Chris Columbus). Phantom of the Opera is just that, an opera. It is the difference between When a Stranger Calls and Saw II. One has a bit of torture, the other is ... excruciatingly so. Most musicals have good songs spaced throughout, Phantom is...an opera, so everything is musical.

As far as others...Chicago maybe. I personally love it. It is dark and more interesting then Rent for sure. Moulin Rouge perhaps which is just fun, but it is also a bit too romantic I think for Zingy's tastes and gets very melodramatic towards the end.

I wasn't a big fan of Singin' in the Rain...then again I wasn't paying attention to it either. Heh.

Zing, watch Singin in the Rain and The Band Wagon. Those are the pinnacle of Hollywood musicals

Oh shit, I agree with a Shack post.

But Shack is right.

I still stick to the Dreamgirls gets the most noms but The Departed wins theory.

Condon's film seems to be rolling into the BP slot with a lot more momentum. If Little Miss Sunshine gets BP, there will not be a 5/5 BP match up (unless something weird happens), and I don't see BP matching Best Director by 3/5. Since Eastwood, Greengrass and the others seem to have "weaker" films, it seems like they are most likely the 5th nominee.

Yeah, Iwo Jima winning is out of the question at this point. Dreamgirls is the epic/tech favorite. I would still rather see Iwo Jima up there instead of either Babel or Little Miss Sunshine... something in the back of my brain says that Iwo Jima makes the list look more well rounded but that's just a feeling.

The Departed will probably win 4-5 awards (Picture, Director, Adp. Screen, Editing and maybe something like Cinematography, maybe maybe Actor), Dreamgirls will capture Best Supporting Acress, Costumes, Sound, Song, Make-Up and maybe Art Dir., Best Supporting Actor... maybe even Sound Effect Editing, but I see one of the Sounds going to Pirates.

So there's a potential there for Dreamgirls to win more actual awards than The Departed, but The Departed's supposed strength in Director and Adp. Screenplay is what clinches the BP win.

Dreamgirls and The Queen I actually thought were more lively than Little Miss Sunshine which (to me) was a little down. So I don't judge necessarily on comedy (although I thought The Queen was more humorous) but how much "life" and color at least some of the nominations have.

I dunno... do other people feel the same way? It's like, I look at 2001 and 2003 and just see that the films they chose speak to a wide audience, they are colorful and as a group, they are pretty ... well... vast. Last year's subjects were the opposite I think... narrow, gimmicky and contrived as a bunch (even though I loved at least 2 of the films).

And as much as I love United 93, if it replaced Babel or Little Miss Sunshine, it wouldn't suit me right either.

I dunno. I'm probably crazy.

I'm so glad Little Miss Sunshine has a realistic shot at a nomination. I championed it when it was still in very limited release (like early August), and sort of had a feeling I knew I had just seen something that would come into play during the Oscar season.