Well, considering you have listed about 17 movies above for the 5 available slots, I hope you can get at least 3.

as people are talking about acting awards - especially for In Her Shoes, think David Strathairn should be mentioned for Good Luck / Night.

But Munich doesn't sound like it'll be much different in that regard (taught thriller, political discourse, etc.). If Syriana manages to be as good as the trailer suggests, and Munich turns out to be a bit of a wet fish - I wouldn't be surprised if Syriana winds up nabbing its spot at the Oscars right out from under it.

As of now, my wacky predictions for best pic noms are as follows.

Memoirs of a Geisha
Syriana (or Goodnight, and Good Luck)
Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
The New World

I'm also not hearing much mention of King Kong's prospects right now. If it turns out to be just a fun, popcorn adventure flick then obviously it's got no chance. But with its pedigree (two Oscar winning actors, Jackson), its iconic history (Kong's a titan... not unlike a certain ship that got nominated not so long ago) and its obvious pandering to several Oscar-winning archetypes - the period setting, the epic romance, the handicapped lead character (ape scarred, mute)... the ingredients are all there to make it a major Oscar player.

Stranger things have happened.

does George Clooney have any chance for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)

Directed by George Clooney

Writing credits George Clooney (written by)
Grant Heslov (written by)

Cast overview, first billed only:
George Clooney .... Fred Friendly > for supporting actor ???

and will his Syriana role have any effect on GLGN???

Snrub, the only reason I really don't talk about King Kong is honestly... I don't want to be seen as a King Kong fanboy (being associated with one film limits me) but I agree, on paper if you list it's attributes from Score (even with the change from Shore to Howard), Costumes, Make Up, actors, director, production crew, etc. It's just got a long list of things, the biggest negative being that its about a giant monkey.

Not the same. Mostly because of the non-fiction backdrop. That's not to say that Spielberg couldn't very well make it fictitious, but that its rooted to an actual event makes all the difference. I see what you're saying, but if Munich is a wet fish, neither will go through, and you'll just put Good Night, and Good Luck up there. Syriana, like Bourne, like Constant Gardener, any of those movies, is not up for bp. Acting? possibly. Picture? I just don't see it happening.

And Lord of the Rings was about wizards, orcs, dwarves, elves and mystical rings...

Heh, you guys might want to take a look at this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=50740

Over half of them have Narnia front and centre on their lists. Runners up include Cinderella Man, Great Raid, and North Country.

My favorite quote:

David Poland's new comments are up.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... cture.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... ector.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... tress.html

And the main article:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... 51020.html

Theron seems like a lock for a nomination for 'North Country' although she certainly won't win as result of having won not long ago.

Poland mentioned in the BP chart that All King's Men has 90% of chance moving to next year. Not sure how reliable that is, but it could signal that Sony like the screenings they saw with Memoirs of a Geisha and believe they have something there. Hopefully.

Charlize and Reese have been the only sure things for me, though Cameron Diaz could surprise with a nom. (I think she's in the running after her performance this year) Reese has got the win locked up, though. She sings, she portrays a recently dead celeb, the movie is of quality (Oscar quality), she reportedly has great chemistry with her co-star, and I think Hollywood likes her enough. She provides what few women can in Hollywood, with her drawing power at the box office. She also seems nice, but she's a bitch, for all I know. I haven't heard any bad things, so I guess she's a good girl. I think that it would be great if Witherspoon and Phoenix sang a song together at the Oscars.

The Family Stone seems to be shaping up as a serious contender, especially Diane Keaton. Fox's move to December shows, at least to me, they think they have something special on their hands here.

God that would be awesome. That'd probably liven up the show a bit.

Theron doesn't look all that safe to me. Her movie is starting to get some pretty bad reviews.

I said the same thing about Elizabethtown when they moved it from summer to Oscar season.

20th Century Fox should lobby for that. They both have to be considered frontrunners to win. I can't remember if the lineup for the Oscars is set before the ballots are due in or what.

That was before anyone knew that Elizabethtown sucked, though.

The buzz on Family Stone (from test screenings) is glowing so far.

I still didn't know that Elizabethtown sucked.

Cameron Diaz's chance are dead, I think. Reese and Charlize are likely, but so is Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents. The Academy loooves her.

I think the only real lock is Reese, and the rest is wide open.

I'm not feeling Charlize that much. For one its almost the exact same role she won for last time, the built up butch chick. For two the movie is opening quite wide, rather than go for a gain hype roll-out procedure. For two-point-five, if it bombs which its looking like to me to do, it doesn't help. For three, the movie itself is getting pretty bad reviews.

Um...what?

She played a woman driven to become a serial killer after a traumatic experience (and the first woman executed in Florida or whatever, I think? I don't remember) in Monster and a woman filing a class action lawsuit for sexual harassment in North Country.

She's not even "built-up and butch" in North Country anyway. Egad.

People are discussing the similarity of two roles. It's not about what her character is in the movie, it's about in both cases, her changing appearance, hiding her beauty and portray a trashy image. I remember andaroo summarized about Best Actress winner before, it's the most Oscar-baity type of role there is for females. People look at her and without going deep into the story, could easily think she has done this before. I still think she is a lock for nomination because of the weakness of the category, but a lock to not win as well.

I don't see how anybody can compare the role in Monster with the role in North Country, even from an archetype
perspective. I see two totally opposites.

I agree. She may have bad hair in North Country and a dirty face sometimes, but there's nothing butch about her if you've seen the trailer. She's going to get nominated probably. Plus, for those that have seen Whale Rider, Niki Caro does a good job with actors. I also thought the guy that plays Theron's father looked impressive from the trailer. I don't know his name, but I've seen him in many things. he could be this year's Alan Alda.