I've been absolutely, 100% against any chance King Kong had. Didn't buy it. I'm starting to change my tune a little bit.

But there is no way Watts is nominated for Kong. I love her. She should have gotten a nod for Mulholland dr. way back when. But LOTR couldn't even get nods (except for McKellen), no matter how well-deserved they were.

Box office doesn't matter that much in a weak acting field. See: Annette Bening, or any other number of past nominees.

The weakness of the field is the problem. Huffman's position is weaker than Dench's, given the academy's love and it's Harvey promoting the film. That drop for Transamerica is really not good, and I think Huffman may just be replaced by Watts, and the other four stay the same.

How can you compare this to LOTR?
Lord of the Rings had no lead acting... it was a supprting ensemble of like 15 actors and actresses.

This is an iconic role and word is she really pulls it off.
Roeper (Who can't believe I'm quoting cuz I don;t like the guy) said her performance is Oscar worthy.

I always think King Kong is different than LOTR because it has clear-defined leads, while LOTR is an ensemble piece for sure. That helps to promote Watts much easier.

Box office may not matter, but could you recall any film with best actress nominations that did as bad as Transamerica is doing? Being Julia made $7.7M domestically. Films like Monsters, Girls Interrupted, or Monster's Ball may feel like small films, but they all did OK at box office. Transmamerica is in jeoperdy to be out of theaters in a month and won't come close to make $1M. Huffman also isn't a clear critic favorite.

I was going to make a note of that too.
Not so much as the box office but Huffman's buzz. She's not budging and these early critics have shown no sign of any love for her.

By the way, I think Transamerica is planning to widen in a couple of weeks, not close out.

Well, Roeper says that all the time (Ian McDiarmid, anyone?). Doesn't mean it's going to happen.

The Sea Inside had about 1 million in the coffers when Javier Bardem was nominated.

Bardem wasn't nominated, that's the thing.

Ummmmmmmmmmm... Javier Bardem wasn't nominated

It's unlikely her name will ever pop up again in this year's awards, but the publicity from winning L.A. should help her chance for a supporting nod with Departed next year, maybe.

Ah..I meant to type Before Night Falls, for which he WAS nominated, not Sea Inside.

Little brain typo.

I would also ike to add that Bardem ha more buzz about his role than Huffman and he has been previously nominated at the Oscars.

If Transamerica grosses less than $1 million, Huffman is seriously in danger. When was the last time anyone in a sub-$1 million grosser got an acting nom?

I am tempted to say Tumbleweeds, yet I know the movie was made for less than a million (I believe) and its total gross was less than 1.5 million or so.

But I guess Janet McTeer was helped by the fact that she's a British actress doing a Southern accent in a comedic film.

If they can find theaters to expand to. I don't see another Kiss Kiss Bang Bang here, where it dropped big the second weekend but recovered, stablized, and had a nice run. Even with that, KKBB was hurt by the initial decline as it wasn't able to expand to nearly as many theaters as it originally planned.

Also she actually won the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe, so she was apparently really great. I don't see Huffman winning the Globe...

sub-$1 million before they were nominated you mean?

Many small films that end up doing as well as they do only do so BECAUSE of their nominations. If Felicity Huffman gets a Globe nomination, which I think she's pretty much a lock for it could go past $1 million.

I think Being Julia had less than $3 million last year when Being Julia was nominated and pretty much seemes like it's run was over.


It ended up with close to $8 million.

Am I the only one (besides the Golden Globe voters) who could easily see that Naomi Watts wasn't going to get any nominations for reprising a role that was immortalized by Fay Wray? (not to mention the fact that she's acting in a popcorn flick with a giant ape while others are in more serious roles)

You're not the only one.

That's not to say that there are some who believes she has a chance.

Are you planning on seeing King Kong?

Well, ya know, in 2003 Johnny Depp got a nom for a role in a movie about skeleton pirates. And he even won SAG for it.

If Charlize Theron is nominated, but not Naomi Watts, I'm going to be mighty pissed. Charlize Theron was good, and I love her, and I really, really liked North Country, but there is no escaping, in my opinion, the fact that her performance was in certain scenes overdramatic and whilst good, very "typical".

I'm saying this because I can't believe Theron is getting nominated everywhere in the Best Actress category. I'd much rather see the Academy award Naomi Watts with a nom for her unique work in an "action adventure" film, which was sensational, in my opinion.

PEACE, Mike.

Q'Orianka Kilcher?

Been reading alot of the 2005 year in review articles and her name is coming up a surprisingly high amount.

The Best Actress category is quite weak this year as there are very few performances that have been loved. I expect the first three spots to be taken by Witherspoon, Dench and Huffman. Knightley will probably sneak in into fourth. The fifth spot, however, is completely up in the air. It could go to anyone right now.

Joan Allen - it HAS to go to her..

Joan Allen was wonderful. I'd love to see her get the fifth spot.

And Reese Witherspoon continues to be the only 100% can't-lose lock of the season. And now that I've finally seen her movie, I have to say: I'm glad. I fell in love with Reese Witherspoon during Walk The Line, a good-if-not-great movie.

Joan Allen was better in Yes than Upside.

Zhang Ziyi is going to get snubbed for 2046 Supporting... but she deserves to be there.

I mentioned it earlier, but I reallllllllly have a great feeling about Laura Linney.

I think she'll be s urprise nominee when final nominations are announced.