Oh, you'll really like her in Junebug, then.

Part of my horrible day today was learning that this doesn't open up til NEXT weekend in Seattle.

OCTOBER 7, 2005
Boston
Los Angeles
New York
San Francisco
Washington D.C.

OCTOBER 14, 2005
Atlanta
Baltimore
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Ft. Lauderdale
Houston
Miami
Minneapolis
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
Seattle
West Palm Beach

OCTOBER 21, 2005
Albuquerque
Anchorage
Austin
Charlotte
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Fresno
Ft. Meyers
Honolulu
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Las Vegas
Monterey
Orlando
Pittsburg
Reno
Sacramento
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
San Diego
Santa Barbara
St. Louis
Tallahassee

OCTOBER 28, 2005
Montreal
Nashville
Toronto
Tucson
Vancouver

That's what I was afraid of. Because she wasn't part of the Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon crew, and hasn't ever done martial arts (the most well received imported genre in the states right now).

I'm hoping her "villainess" role might distinguish her, since there always has to be one "bad guy" out of the twenty acting noms available. You know, its a real shame her name isn't known well here. Every kid and their mom has seen Fairwell My Concubine. Hell they even showed it to us in grade school. She's been part of every epic movie that reached the U.S. Raise the Red Lantern, Fairwell My Concubine, Shanghai Triad, To Live, Story of Qiu Ju, Red Sorghum, Ju Dou, Emperor and the Assassin (little less good than the others, but whatever), 2046, and now Geisha. She also was elected a jury member at Cannes in '97. This could really be wonderful if she was finally recognized here for all her work. No one even realizes it her that they've seen in almost ever Chinese drama from the 80's and early 90's. She's one of my favorite female actresses ever, right up there with Masina and Dunaway.

Yeoh just has a juicier, older, mentor, female role, is far more familiar of a face. She's all over the trailer.

With Munich, Syriana, and Jarhead kinda delving into the same waters with terrorists/middle east themes, it's hard to imagine all of them going to the dance this year, but they look like best bets right now to me.

I think it's shaping up like this...

Walk the Line
Syriana
Jarhead
Munich

Hopefuls for the 5th spot:

Match Point
A History of Violence
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale

Ugh. I just saw this today, too. After you, I think I might be most anticipating this of anyone. Clooney's debut is one of the better films of 02, and I have a strange infatuation with modern black and white films (a technique far too uncommonly used). Plus, the trailer is brilliant.

Fortunately, with Mirrormask and North Country that weekend, too, it is quickly shaping up to be potentially one of the best weekends in a long time.

Um, what about Memoirs Maverikk?

Ooh...see, that would be 5th. I knew I forgot something.

Here is how I do my 5 nominee thinking this year. Using this method (at this point in the year) I'm usually able to get at least 3 of the nominees by October and 4 by November. Last year I had 5 by December!

1. Munich (the end-of-the-year-we-knew-it-from-mid-year-slot)
2. Walk the Line/Crash (the people's favorite)
3. Jarhead/The Producers/Cinderella Man (the, "I know Munich is a coproduction, but Universal is too strong this year"-slot).
4. Brokeback Mountain/Good Night, and Good Luck/Capote/Syriana/A History of Violence/The Constant Gardener/North Country/Match Point (the critic/indie pick, usually an adult drama)
5. Memoris of a Geisha/The New World (costumed/epic film)

Here's what probably can't run against each other.

A History of Violence and The New World are both New Line, they can't run against each other.
Good Night, and Good Luck, Syriana and North Country won't run together, they are from various WB divisions.
Memoris of a Geisha, Capote and All the King's Men won't run against each other.

Here's how I think about them:

1. We always know one film from the start, and for me this is a toss up between Munich and Walk the Line, and although films like Cold Mountain sometimes fail, it's not like we didn't see Return of the King coming from 2 years away. I think Munich will be impossible to resist in the kind of terrorist-crazed world we live in, and apparently the screenplay has been shipped around to politically corrected people to get their thoughts on it (I read this on Oscarwatch a couple months back). It's also a co-production, and there's always a co-production!

2. The People's Favorite. Not always "the greatest movie on earth" but the movie we throw a bone to because it has something going on for it and, damn it, people like movies too! Walk the Line fits this bill pretty well. Crash does too... but too early/Lions Gate/ensemble cast/etc. I think hurts it severely.

3. Universal's slate is just *too* strong this year, and they've been a strong Oscar powerhouse for a couple years. Munich is a co-production so I'm going with Mendes' Jarhead. Plus it's topical, and I don't think The Producers or King Kong has a shot in hell. Ditto for the liked, but maligned Cinderella Man. THIS, IS THE WEAKEST SLOT IN MY OPINION.

4. The critic/indie darling. WHO KNOWS. Right now, I'm thinking Brokeback or Good Night and Good Luck. Probably Brokeback, for misc. reasons. Most of the acting noms come from here. I think Warner has three films and Good Night and Good Luck is probably the strongest, unless North Country gets a lot more notice than its getting. Syriana is like the mongoose to Jarhead's snake. Mav's right... too many terrorist pictures.

5. Epic/costume drama. It's easy. Tech guilds will nominate these and the theory goes that they will like these enough to vote in the picture awards. Of course, these kind of films can be great on their own too .

I do think that's going to be an unfortunate truth. A great movie could become of victim of the numbers game. Maybe it'll be Munich.

I dunno bout Syriana. It does look pretty great, and might do some business as far as acting/writing or something...but throughout the trailer, (the secnd time I watched it anyway), I just couldnt picture it being huge, especially not making BP. I mean...I dunno. It looks good, but more like a Interpreterian thriller. Thrilling, but not...see where I'm going with this? I just don't see much.

And I don't care how bad the reviews for Elizabethtown are, or that it's chances might be blown by now, but I'm incredibly excited about it. There was just a special on it on MTV (er...don't ask), and it looks...I dunno. Happy. Really, just watching the footage made me feel good...I can only imagine the whole film will be much of the same. I hope, anyway. I could use happy.

I would say that Shirlie MacLaine can be put down as a Best Supporting Actress lock, at this point. Between In Her Shoes and Rumor Has It, she's going to get something, and Toni Collette's only chance would be if MacLaine went for Rumor Has It.

I think Cameron Diaz is good enough to recieve her first Oscar nomination.

Here's an interesting article:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... 51013.html

My Picks as of now:

Best Picture

Walk the Line
Syriana
Memoirs of a Geisha
Brokeback Mountain
Munich (primed to be a disappointment)

Best Director

Woody Allen
James Mangold
Rob Marshall
Stephen Gaghan
Steven Spielberg

Best Actor

George Clooney
Jeff Daniels
Joaquin Phoenix
Philip Seymour Hoffman
David Strathairn

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon
Cameron Diaz
Charlize Theron
Joan Allen
Zhang Ziyi

Best Supporting Actor

Don Cheadle
Geoffrey Rush
Matt Damon
Jake Gyllenhaal
Kevin Costner

Best Supporting Actress

Shirley MacLaine
Maria Bello
Amy Adams
Michelle Yeoh
Patricia Clarkson

I think like... 9 out of 10 lists right now would list Munich, Brokeback, Memoris and Walk. Those seem to be pretty stable, with Jarhead poping in now and then too.

I'm surprised about how much lack of... anything... I'm hearing for Jarhead.

It only comes out in like 15 days!

I've seen a bit for it. It still smokes Syriana out of the water in the Oscar race, and I still think its the #1 contender.

Yeah, Jarhead is pretty quiet. Exciting stuff coming up with the reactions to these early contenders. We really only know for sure that Walk the Line is getting in, based on quality. Brokeback Mountain may have the quality, but it's resources are tighter than most for a campaign. Something would bumpt it out long before Walk the Line would go anywhere.

We already know that Elizabethtown is a dead stick. In Her Shoes was strong in the screenplay and acting, but I doubt any love will come it's way for Best Picture due to the male contigent within the academy. Syriana, Jarhead, or Munich could take a spot in the top 5, but I do kinda doubt it'll be more than one of them since they could all be categorized as political films. I don't personally feel there was enough story for a best picture nomination for A History of Violence, though, as it's short run time hampered the third act. Does the short run time hamper Good Night, and Good Luck? Crash handled it good, considering all the storylines it had, but could have used more time if it was serious about being an Oscar picture.

A good two hour motion picture isn't too long if it's nicely paced, and it can tell a heck of a lot more about your characters than and hour and a half long film can. It seems that a film like [i]Crash, given a higher budget and released during Oscar season, would have probably won or been a frontrunner. The supporting acting for Crash still has a good shot of getting a nom for somebody.

Hmmmm.


Honestly, I think In Her Shoes is pretty much dead everywhere, I didn't think it was that big of a deal except maybe in supporting categories. I'm glad you enjoyed it but I just can't see the screenplay folks giving this film any sort of nod, and not the actors either.


I can't see Syriana up on the top 5 at all. I can see Munich and Jarhead there.


I disagree, but I don't feel that, in the case of A History of Violence, that I needed those characters handed to me. The mystery was very freeing for me and the short run time kept it on track.


As much as I hate Crash, Oprah doing shows about it, its pretty good run on DVD, and continued notice in places is pretty good for the film. It's not out of the running yet, but I still think to vote on LGF is a risky prospect.

Hmmm. I saw the Syriana trailer as well, and I don't think its going to get anything this year. Like Bourne and all those other ones, the Academy doesn't really prop up action/suspense movies recently. I'd guess maybe acting, but it looked to me that outside of its lofty discourse of corruption being a security blanket in a volatile area (hey, there's some truth to it I guess) it was just a taught thriller.

Also, anyone been hearing anything about David Straithairn? Its an ensemble cast, and his performance is very even and refined, but I really would like to see him get a nom for Best actor. I've liked him ever since I can remember in League of Their Own.

Syriana is no better than The Interpreter in my mind. And Damon? He's the sunglasses wearing yelling debriefer, absolutely no way he gets a nod for a role like that.

Well, this is lucky for me, then, huh?

Maverikk and David Poland's opinion > everyone else's opinion.

Just saw In Her Shoes. Have to say it's not the kind of movies that contend for Best Picture. I don't see anything except for nom(s) in Supporting Actress.

So for those who've seen this, who has the better chance.....Maclaine or Collette?

Personally I like Maclaine more, but Collette has more screen time and is probably easier to get a nom. It'll be similar to the Gong Li/Michelle Yeoh case (if both are as good as some of the early words indicate), and we have one crowded category.

Egad, I just find it so ridiculous Toni Collette will be pushed for Supporting Actress, considering In Her Shoes is Rose's story just as much as it is Maggie's.

I'd say MaClaine, because it's a comebck of sotrs and she's a legend. Collette could be the odd one out here.