There seems to be quite alot of ink flowing now that Crash might win. Both Ebert and Roeper are predicting it as well.

Crash could also almost easily walk away with the most number of awards...

If it wins Best Picture it could also nag Best Original Screenplay (which it probably will, regardless), Best Editing, and Best Song. That's already 4! If there was enough support to make it a winner, I don't think a Matt Dillon win would be out of the question considering how spread out the compeititon is in the Best Supporting Actor category.

With that scenario, Brokeback could still take home Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Score and possibly cinemtography. If BBM doesn't have what it takes to win BP, then I'd say Cinemtography also vanishes away from the picture as well as a much more depreciated chance of winning Best Score, which Memoirs has nabbed so far in Globes and other awards.

So, Crash could win 4 or 5 and Brokeback could walk away with 2. I actually think that's quite a possibility.

If during the night, Crash wins Best Song AND Brokeback loses Best Score, then I'd say chances are Crash might upset.
I wouldn't know how to read a surprise dillon win that early in the night because it could be the beginning of a sweep or it could be the film's biggest reward.

Honestly, I think all this Crash talk is half fabricated just to keep us guessing and interested in the race until the envelope is opened, but I am also a bit shaky on BBM's chances because it is true that it peaked and Crash is on a momentum push now. Then again, Brokeback still has the entire awards season under its arm while Crash suppoerts are passionate but maybe hardly enough for a win.

And have you guys seen the new set design?

That design rocks!

Seriously, though, what's up with all the talking? Brokeback Mountain will win it.

When was the last time EVER that a Best Picture frontrunner didn't win, even though:

1. It had the most nominations of all movies
2. It had by far the best box-office of all-nominees
3. It won four Golden Globes, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay
4. It won BAFTA's for Best Picture and Best Director
5. It won the WGA for Best Adapted Screenplay
6. It won the PGA
7. It won the DGA
8. It has three acting nominees
9. It pretty much sweeped critics awards
10. Its director topped the NBR list


Its competitors:

Munich:

1. No PGA nomination (!)
2. Struggles to $50 million despite a $70 million budget
3. Didn't even get a Best Picture nod at the Globes
4. Didn't get any BAFTA nod (I know why, but still)
5. No acting nominees
6. No overwhelming critics support (its COTC at RT is ROTTEN!)

Crash:

1. Very split reception
2. No Best Director or Best Picture nominations at the Globes! (the last time a movie won despite this was The Sting, but it made $150+ million thirty years ago and it won the SGA, the PGA and topped the NBR list)

Good Night, and Good Luck:

1. Black and White
2. Good reception, but no passionate support
3. Just like BBM, it missed out on a Best Editing nom
4. Will end up with less than $35 million at the box-office

Capote:

1. Do I really need to elaborate that?

Apparently, according to Oscarwatch, Brokeback is the first film in BAFTA history to win Picture, Director, Screenplay, and an Acting award.

I agree completely. I dunno what exactly it is but I never remember loving a set design for the Oscars as much.

At the risk of everyone knowing the big nerd I am, I'll say that it's my background for the moent

In what way, they're both white, I mean honestly, why all the Haggis love, yes Million Dollar Baby was ogod, but his sideplot of Eastwood's daughter which he added was totally shit. He did a good job adapting the story, but his orginal ideas suck.

The cover of the Entertainment Weekly Predictions issue goes to.... Reese Witherspoon

As if it isn't bad enough that she's gonna win... what was the point of that cover? She already had am amazing cover for the Walk the Line issue...

Why not put Hoffman or Huffman on the cover? Wouldn't it have been a great idea to put all the underdogs on the cover? Ledger, Knightley, Dillon, Adams?

I look forward to reading it tomorrow but they could have done better with the cover. And it's so plain too!

EW will sell more issues with Reese on the cover then with Hoffman or Huffman. She's in the seasons most popular film and she's more photogenic.

Bleh, Reese Witherspoon has been on the cover in some shape or form (i.e. either as the main picture or one of those little boxes) practically every other week for the past couple months. She's the main picture on this one, one for Walk the Line (with Joaquin), and the Fall Preview one. It's getting old. and I love Lost but they put that on the cover far too often as well.

anyway here are EW's predictions for the major categories if anyone's interested

Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon 50% of votes
Felicity Huffman 35%
Judi Dench 5%
Keira Knightley 5%
Charlize Theron 5%

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman 35%
Heath Ledger 30%
Terrence Howard 15%
Joaquin Phoenix 15%
David Strathairn 5%

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz 35%
Michelle Williams 30%
Amy Adams 20%
Catherine Keener 10%
Frances McDormand 5%

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney 30%
Matt Dillon 25%
Paul Giamatti 25%
Jake Gyllenhaal 15%
William Hurt 5%

Best Director
Ang Lee 40%
George Clooney 20%
Paul Haggis 20%
Steven Spielberg 15%
Bennett Miller 5%

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain 35%
Crash 30%
Good Night, and Good Luck. 15%
Capote 10%
Munich 10%

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain 35%
Capote 30%
The Constant Gardener 15%
Munich 15%
A History of Violence 5%

Best Original Screenplay
Crash 35%
Good Night, and Good Luck. 30%
The Squid and the Whale 15%
Match Point 10%
Syriana 10%

Looks good to me, though I wouldn't rank Knightley as low as Dench & Theron. She definitely has a better shot than them. I don't think Best Actor is that close, despite the strong nominees, and fine I'll accept that Hurt has no chance in hell

They also had interviews with some Academy members, here's the votes that EW revealed (and for some odd reason they were all whining about the 40 Year Old Virgin not being nominated? huh. )

the actor - Crash (best picture), Hoffman, Witherspoon, Dillon, Keener
the screenwriter - Brokeback (picture), Ledger, Huffman, Hurt, Brokeback (screenplay), Match Point (screenplay)
the producer - Crash (picture), Ang Lee, Ledger, Witherspoon, Clooney (supporting), Weisz

I think the Crash/Lee split is getting more and more likely as we approach the ceremony...I hope I'm wrong but due to the fact that I want Brokeback to win, and the movie I want to win never wins, I'm a tad skeptical.

I still think Ledger has got a great chance to upset Hoffman. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but yeah, a pretty good chance nonetheless.

Crash better not win. It can't.

I think Gyllenhaal has a much better shot than Dillon to upset...

but it wouldn't be an upset if he was being predicted to be one of the frontrunners...

Gaaah, had ABC known that the winter olympics would be lackluster, they would have had the awards now!

I'm looking forward for the first ever gangster rap performance next Sunday.

I'm really curious as to how they're gonna perform it. I think there is alot fo potential to disappoint me but if recaptures the essence of the film, then I'll be very pleased!

Well they were banned to use the N-word, shit, etc. but apparently, ABC says it's okay to use "bitches" and "ho's" lol.

Ya I read that at Oscarwatch a few days ago.
I just found out this past week that one my mom's closest American girlfriends (with whom I always talk about movies and tv shows) walked out on Hustle and Flow