*shrug* I'm still predicting her.

After having seen Atonement, I don't think I'll stick to predicting Keira. She was really quite good, but she was not THAT good to overcome the short screentime to be up for Best Actress. I mean Hopkins had a short screentime in SOTL, but he was just that damn impressive. Keira's performance is a good, yet subtle one and she is really very much on the edge between supporting anc lead, so...I don't think so.

On the other hand I saw A Mighty Heart today and I really hope now that Jolie makes it. Her performance was terrific.

Updated- 12/29

Locks:

1. Julie Christie- Away from Her
2. Ellen Page- Juno
3. Marion Cotillard- La Vie en Rose

Likely:

4. Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart

Battling for the Fifth Spot:

5. Keira Knightley- Atonement
6. Cate Blanchett- The Golden Age
7. Amy Adams- Enchanted
8. Laura Linney- The Savages

Picking Up the Scraps:

9. Jodie Foster- The Brave One
10. Helena Bonham-Carter- Sweeney Todd

i think Blanchett has every right to be nomiated just because Elizabeth II got many scathing reviews, many deserved. But she made the film much much watchable than if it were played by any other actress. But then again, it looks like she might take Best Supporting Actress anyway.

Knightley does not deserve a Best Actress nomination, after seeing Atonement there is just not enough screen time to allow her to demand a spot in the 5.

I'm disappointed I didn't catch A Might Heart at the cinemas, it looks like I might have been somewhat impressed.

Just saw another very good performance that would be shameful if passed up for Blanchett, Angelina Jolie's. None I've seen are as stunning as any nominee last year, but this year's batch is actually pretty deep in terms of quantity. Christie, Page, Cotillard, Jolie, Russell, Linney, Adams, Carter, Knightely, and hell, Blanchett(she was fine, just not "great"). That's a lot of names, really twice as much as last year, when it was just The Five.

Hmm I think the SAG is going to be spot-on, Blanchett has had too much go her way for her to fall out. And the only one of the other 4 I could see missing is Jolie. I'd like to see Linney or Adams make it in, but I've always loved Cate Blanchett as well so I can't really kvetch too much.

I really need to see Away from Her & La Vie En Rose btw.

The Ellen Page Victory Train continues on schedule.

I've finally seen the movie and fell in love with her performance. I'd give her the award. But now I'm down a bit on her chances. It's not Oscar-bait at all.

Still, I predicted her on Dec.21 and I'll stick with her for a while.

Aww...somewhat awkward, but she's adorable. And funnier 'unscripted' than she is in the movie.

Here's loyal after the speech...

1. Julie Christie
2. Marion Cotillard
3. Ellen Page
.
.
4. Angelina Jolie
.
.
5. Cate Blanchett vs. Laura Linney

Spoiler: Keira Knightley (I think the Academy loves her and she might still get in)

Edit: Hmm, I totally forgot about Amy Ryan. Yet, I don't really know where to place her. I'd say she makes it a 3 way fight for slot #5.

Amy Adams, you mean?

yes. my mistake.

I meant Amy Adams

I'm going with Laura Linney for the fifth spot. I might be becoming increasingly stubborn, but I refuse to believe that she will miss out. To Blanchett/Adams/Knightley at least.

I still remember 2003 clearly. Samantha Morton. Keisha Castle-Hughes. Stuff like that does happen once in a while.

I think the passion behind Blanchett vs. Linney is pretty hard to tell. I'm really hoping Blanchett's supporting nomination will lead to Linney getting the lead one but Blanchett's recent surge of lead mentions is scaring me.

So...if Juno misses BP, the actress line-up won't have one Picture nominee. Strange. (unless, by some horrible, horrible occurrence, the Academy chooses to nominate both Atonement and Keira)

Well, the same happened to the Best Actor line-up last year. Even weirder since, in fact, four of the five Best Actor nominees last year represented also the only noms for their respetive films (all except for DiCaprio)

Yeah, last year's Actor line-up was strange.

Best Actress is usually not represented by many Best Picture nominees anyway (2003 comes to mind with Monster, Something's Gotta Give, In America, Whale Rider, and 21 Grams) so it's not surprising this year most likely won't have any BP in the line-up. Which goes to show the bias that Best Picture nominees are generally male-driven.

I think in the 1950's all Best Actress winners are from films not nominated for Best Picture.

I've just seen La Vie En Rose. Cotillard is terrific and probably deserves the win. From what I've seen so far, we've really got a strong line-up this year, very strong. Jolie, Adams and Cotillard were all great and I will be seeing Away from Her on Saturday.

I'm kinda glad Knightley is not as much in contention. She really pales compared to those above. Has a lot to do with her short screentime too, though.

6 of the winners from the 1950's starred in best picture nominees...so close enough

Susan Hayward's film (I Want to Live!) was nominated for a total of 6 awards, including adapted screenplay and director...but not picture.

Ah thanks for the correction!

You know, with Keira seeming less likely by the day, and with Amy Adams sadly falling out of contention, I'm beginning to think that - mainly because the Academy loves Cate and loves double nominations - Blanchet'll be the last nom. Which would be so weird, considering how terrible the movie apparently is. It would be the worst-reviewed movie to receive a major nom, for sure.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/i_am_sam/

If Linney doesn't get it, I would prefer Knightley in the final spot...

It's all about the fifth spot...I really don't see Knightley making it. It should be down to Blanchett, Linney and Adams. Amazingly enough, Blanchett has received the most attention of them, but I think that should change with the Oscars. Adams or Linney? Hmm...Linney's film is just so damn SMALL and unseen by virtually anyone. Otherwise, I'd be easily predicting her, so...

Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Amy Adams (Enchanted)

Blanchett in the final spot for me