She's not a first timer. She was nominated for The Cooler.

EDIT: whoops that was Golden Globe and SAG.

Don't forget Allison Janney for supporting as well. The film might be too small, but you don't get reviews like that for nothing. If it expands well she could very much sneak in.

Toni Collette for a nod?

Or not.

Toni Collette yes, I don't think Allison Janney's film (I completely forget what it's called) is big enough or memorable enough.

Ya think?

I hope.

Did you ever see the sneak of Shoes?

When I say "toni Collette yes" I'm saying she has a chance, not that I think she *will*.

I only think Michelle Yeoh, Catherine Keener and Maria Bello really stand out as possibles at this point.

Toni Collette will probably be pushed for supporting. We can't discount the women of Crash. Susan Sarandon is another who may get some recognition. Patricia Clarkson...isn't she supporting in both her upcoming films, All the King's Men and Good Night, and Good Luck? Kate Winslett is also supporting this year in All the King's Men. Uma in The Producers? Jennifer Aniston in Derailed?

There's probably a lot more supporting actress possibilities than it looks like on the surface.

I definately agree about potential, but I'm not feeling a vibe for an Aniston nomination (Don't get me wrong, I like her). As for a Crash winner, Sandra Bullock's role was too brief for a nom, same with Jen Esposito... the only one I would consider is Thandie Newton - her performance really moved me.

Toni Collette could very well be pushed for back to supporting; there was no definative lead in the film and it would make sense.

I would put Newton in the top 20, but she's the only one I think. If Crash gets any acting it will be Dillon.


Yar.


I say no for Derailed (I know you like that movie tho!) and I don't think the role that Uma plays (based on the origional and based on what I know of the play) is Awards worthy... if Uma can't get a nomination for Kill Bill...........

Supporting are always hard to judge. They could go completely crazy and nominate anybody really.

Jeffrey Wells is on Gong Li's bandwagon now:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/

I'll be seeing The Constant Gardener in about 15 minutes. Hopefully it's as good as advertised, and I'll give my Oscar potential comments tonight.

Toni Collette should certainly not be pushed for Supporting Actress, considering she and Cameron Diaz have virtually the same amount of screen time.

It depends which way you look at it...

IF they're both pushed for lead actress, they could possibly cancel each other out.
With one nod in supporting and another in lead, the film will resonate stronger in the voters' minds (at least I assume so).

Plus, it all depends on what they want for Collette. If she wants a real chance to win, they should go supporting.


I doubt very much it will happen, but I want to see the reaction if they both got nominated for lead!!

It'd be her best shot, because Best Actress is a harder nut to crack.

Is it? I seems like Best Actress might be easier this year, other than Reese its terribly weak. The 4 nominations to join her are wide open at this point, anbody could sneak in.

My Dream has come true.

All I really care is to see Hurt and Li promenading around on stage with a bit of extra gold. That's all I ask. Is that so wrong?

Anyone see the new (I believe) FYC North Country TV ad? Not really FYC, but they're pushing it very hard. "North Counrty is an Oscar contender in every way." etc. I still think it looks great, and if this campaign stays strong, it could be pretty big.

Yeah, I've seen the TV spot of North Country. Charlie Theron has grabbed the No. 3 position in my actress prediction, behind Witherspoon and Dench.

Oh, yeah, they've been pushing for the Oscars with those ads since they started airing them. Before they had reviews to place in the ads, they made mention of Oscar Winner Charlize Theron, Oscar Winner Frances McDormand, Oscar Winner Sissy Spacek, and Oscar Nominee Woody Harrelson when they showed each of them. It's Warner Bros., and they have ran strong campaigns in recent years especially, so they're going to find out which one sticks and go balls out behind it.

I feel really bad for Sean Bean

The theater trailer is all like...

OSCAR WINNER Charlize Theron
OSCAR WINNER Frances McDormand
OSCAR WINNER Sissy Spacek
OSCAR NOMINEE Woody Harrelson
...and Sean Bean

POOR SEAN!

The commercial for it that was just on this second compared it to Silkwood, Norma Rae, and Erin Brokovich, all of which received their share of Oscar noms, and two of them won for best actress, I believe.

Is Good Night, and Good Luck their only other possibility? Or did I miss something?

Syriana

More Gong Li for you, Galia: http://incontention.blogspot.com/

Kris also updated some of his predictions on the right side.

Thanks Michael!

I've been dreaming of this moment since I was a wide eyed innocent 11 year old and first saw Raise the Red Lantern.
Hey, if she gets a nom, wanna co-host a Gong Li film festival week leading up to the awards?