It will be funny to hear what you tune / opinion is tommorrow night.

Especially with your NO BOXING WINS STANCE next year / 2 year in a row.

I don't think I like your tone. I mean, if I was an asshole, I just wouldn't go see it. But Russell Crowe + Giamatti is enough to get me in the seat. I'm looking forward to it, it does LOOK lush and it look good, or else I wouldnt' buy tickets.


Unlike some, I am open and honest enough to admit defeat, to embrace movies that I end up liking and negatively review ones that I'm looking forward to. I have yet to see the actual film, so I don't really have an opinion on whether or not it is a great movie. I know what I feel about the advertising, and I know what I feel about the actors and the director, but that's about it.

It's Oscar chances are a secondary concern. My favorite movie this year is Hitchhiker's Guide so it's not like I'm supporting one horse so I can see loyal proven wrong. Fuck, who was the one with the Kingdom of Heaven prediction!?!


If Cinderella Man turns out to be *the best boxing movie of all time* it STILL will not win Best Picture. And I will go with that UNLESS:

- It's nominated for Golden Globes, critic awards, then I will re-assess
- It's chances increase almost ten-fold by grossing around/more than say... $180 million
- Because, obviously if it defeats Jarhead, The Producers and Vengence, then there's a lot going for it.

The best thing that could happen to Cinderella Man is if somehow Vengence gets pushed back. We're looking at a very small production window for a somewhat complicated shoot, logistics wise.

But if anyone can get it done, it's Spielberg.

Whatever dude

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It will be funny to hear what you tune / opinion is tommorrow night.

Especially with your NO BOXING WINS STANCE next year / 2 year in a row.

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Sorry if you were offended but all the above means based on your comments / opinions going into the movie - I am curious to see how they change based on the movie good or bad the movie is.

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Yeah, but as you are aware of, and referenced, Spielberg was able to put an insanely complicated effects film in time for June and only filmed the actors in November. He must have had this baby edited by February.

I suppose when you are Steven Spielberg, you are basically so good and versed at what you are doing, your crew is so familiar with your work, that it takes months and months off the schedule.

I can't see Vengeance being pushed back. It starts filming this month. I think Million Dollar Baby was filmed in 37 days in June/July/August timeframe last year.

Vengaence is released on the 23rd. It would be a hard Christmas for Universal if they didn't make that date.

Ah, Spielberg. Did I ever mention he wrote me a letter?

My dad got stuck in an elevator with him a few years ago and told him what a huge fan of his I was. Not less than 2 weeks later, he sends me a letter telling me to "keep up my interest in movies" and a book (I forget the name, but it tells the true stories of events that inspired several movies) that his secretary gave him to read.

He's done it before so there's no reason to doubt he can do it again.

But unlike Eastwood's M$B, Vengeance is being filmed in Hungary, Poland, and Malta. I don't doubt that Spielberg and his team have contingency plans in place. But anything from political unrest in Europe to terrorist attacks to injuries to lead actors to even weather issues could delay the film.

And even a few weeks delay would create a ripple effect in losing actors to other projects, location issues...

That is so awesome

You had never wrote that before!

See the new Vengeance thread!

Time will tell but I don't think it will need 180 - I think 100 to 120 could still get the job done as don't most of the voters see the Oscar presentation videos and not only the theater showing.

Could even win:
Best Supporting Actor

Good chance:
Best Costumes
Best Make-Up

Okay chance:
Best Actor
Best Art Direction

Would be passible:
Cinematography
Score

Barely bearable:
Director
Best Picture

Stab me in the face and call me Brenda:
Best Supporting Actress

In my opinion. This is "5th nominee" type material. The sentimental melodrama vote.

Despite the fact that I wasn't thrilled with Cinderella Man, I'm not going to pull a Dr. Lecter. I will admit to, at this point, it will remain a (OMG I'M GONNA SAY IT) contendor til Oscar nominations.

IT WILL NOT WIN. NO WAY. Maybe Giamatti, but I'm not going to deny it like a certain film about a blind musician was denied by certain scary German people who I miss

It won't win, but I'l... well whatever, I won't do shit... if it doesn't at least get a bunch of nominations. I'm not sure if I'd call BP and BD nominations a lock per se, but it has a damn good shot at both, and I'm sure it'll at least get nominations for Giamatti and a few technical ones (pretty much everything on Andaroo's list, though I really hope the score doesn't, that certainly wasn't anything special whatsoever). I'm thinking this might appeal somewhat more to audiences then critics, but after last year I'm sure the Oscars won't mind giving nominations to more 100+ million movies, of which I'm almost certain this one will be.

I'm going to steal Roo's template. :razz:

Could even win:
Best Supporting Actor

Good chance:
Best Actor
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best Editing

Okay chance:
Best Director
Best Picture
Best Costume
Best Make-Up
Best Score

Stab me in the face and call me Brenda:
Best Supporting Actress

It's tough being I only have a guess as to what the other 4 films are. At this point I am willing to say Cinderella Man will be nominated in most of the eligible categories.

My only beef with the Art Direction is that their common area outside the apartment looked like a set, and felt like a set. It felt like it was always indoors.

All the hope...none of the reality. :razz:

All the love for Geomatti in suporting actor. The guy isn't going to get it. They don't seem to like him too much. That's two years in a row he's been seriously snubbed a best actor nom. Especially last year, he wasn't even a un-heard of anymore. He and Patricia Clarkson are someone perennially over-looked by the Academy, and I don't see the early release date and star studded cast in Cinderella helping his cause at all. He's still somehow the least well-known actor in that entire film.

I think he's probably still paying penance for Big Fat Liar.

And so he should.

Yeah but it will probably be rereleased in the fall.

It probably won't be re-released in the fall. It will probably be out on DVD in time for Xmas.

Um, I disagree. But we'll see how its box office run turns out.

....but Clarkson did get nominated finally. And for a dinky movie that hardly anyone saw. Giametti missed out in lead categories, but I think supporting will be kinder to him.

Really Tod? Which one? Maybe I missed it. She was passed over in Far from Heaven and Station Agent I thought. COuld be mistaken though. Or was it an earlier movie?

Pieces of April.

Yes. Some actors just need the right role at the right time. I think it's time for Giametti to get a nomination and this is the role.

Unless the supporting actor category becomes very crowded, he should be leading the pack.