I think that might be my new favorite picture response ever.

Not crazy, I'm seeing the same now too.

It's first time ever since I started following Oscar where we won't get any idea on who will be winning in a major category, as no nominee will win any precursor awards for the category. It's just bizarre.

Well, Affleck MIGHT lose BAFTA.

Then Bigelow or QT might win. Although in that case, where neither Lee or Haneke could even beat them outside Affleck, I guess we could assume Spielberg is the frontrunner. It's just one big WTH; never seen one like it.

That's alsoe the big issue I have with assuming Spielberg being the frontrunner without Affleck in the mix, since he couldn't even manage a BAFTA nomination, and we know the influence of the British bloc.

Yes, there hasn't been much passion for Lincoln on the whole. I mean, if we look back at all awards, industry or critics....has Lincoln won a single BP award ANYWHERE? I cant remember one. Same for Spielberg. At the same time, I also don't see passion for Lee, especially with the film getting so LITTLE support from the almighty acting branch. Also, Lee has won BD rather recently and I am not sure that Life of Pi will be considered a fitting moment to award him again. It's not like the Academy has been kind to him over the years, hehe.

Which leaves us with Zeitlin (newcomer, won't win, lucky to be nominated), Russell and Haneke. Russell seems like a good choice, but in all honestly, a Silver Linings Playbook winning BD, but not BP seems just WRONG.

On the other hand, I sense a lot of pasion behind Haneke. He could pull it off. Amour could win Original Screenplay too. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if it won Actress as well, though I am certainly not predicting that yet.

Also, I just realized that between DGA and the Oscars, the only movie without a BD nom at any of these awards is Django Unchained, probably making it the weakest film in the race (especially since it got no Editing nom either).

Been sayin' this for a LONG time

I believe Lee has a shot exactly because he or his films have been wronged in the past, and this is a perfect opportunity to make up, if academy wants to go that way, especially for an "unfilmable" project that is considered a major directorial achievement. He is also the only director to receive noms from BAFTA, DGA, and Oscar. To me it's between him and Haneke.

Just wait for Academy to give it to Zeitlin and fry our brains.

This is happening because Lincoln had the worst directing of the BD nominees, if Spielberg had put in a better effort Lincoln would be cleaning up.