I think The Help could (will?) have enough momentum to get Chastain into the five for Supporting Actress. She's just as worthy a nominee as Octavia Spencer, even though she got less attention.

I would imagine she would be considered a lead for Take Shelter, not supporting.

Uh, you would imagine wrong?

It's a big performance, to be sure, but it's clearly of a supporting nature next to Michael Sheen's.

I wasn't aware Michael Sheen was in Take Shelter. Of course he is the main focus, but that doesn't mean there can't be more than one lead performance.

My mistake. Shannon.

He's the lead the way Daniel Day-Lewis was the lead in There Will Be Blood. Or George Clooney in Michael Clayton. Or Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting. Or...other examples. Where, yes, there were other major performances--Paul Dano, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, Ben Affleck, Robin Williams, Minnie Driver--but ultimately there is no doubt who is -the lead-.

So...hmm..


Octavia Spencer (for sure)
Jessica Chastain (for whatever film...I have no idea)
Vanessa Redgrave
Carey Mulligan


The final two spots will be between Shailene Woodley, Melissa McCarthy and Bérénice Bejo. I'm thinking Bejo if The Artist will keep up the steam.

It could be.

Also, I still see Sandra Bullock getting nominated here. And Dr. Lecter, Shailene Woodley is locked at this point.

Eh, I'm not that sure. Competition is strong.

Not sure where Vanessa Redgrave stands at the moment...

And this one:

Berenice Bejo
Jessica Chastain
Octavia Spencer
Shailene Woodley

And the last spot will come down to Janet McTeer and Melissa McCarthy, imo. Mulligan, Redgrave and Bullock seem next in line.

There doesn't seem to be anything resembling a frontrunner in this categry, right?

Not at all. I actually think it's going to come down to the two women from The Help, though anything could happen.

Octavia Spencer will win.

This category has been atrocious for years

I'm really saddened Carey Mulligan seems to be out. She was great in Shame!

I agree. A terrific performance, a lot better than Octavia Spencer and Shailene Woodley.

It's also amazing how Vanessa Redgrave has gone from "Could she win?" to being absolutely out of the race, even missing the BAFTA long-list.

I could see Shailene Woodley possibly missing an Academy Awards nomination. And even though I thought she was great in The Descendants she's not as great as Carey Mulligan by a long shot. I'm fine with anyone missing to make room for Ms. Mulligan.

ugh

Jennifer Hudson is practically anorexic compared to Mo'nique and Octavia Spencer.

Evil.

Having finally seen The Descendants and The Artist yesterday--and thus, watching Shailene Woodley and Berenice Bejo--I have to say that the certainty of an Octavia Spencer win against such beautiful, vivid performances makes me wanna puke.

I feel like you'd only be satisfied if they removed the actress categories from the Oscars entirely.

Is Spencer a lock? I suppose so, though I am not sure why. She was not better than Chastain in that film and Chastain deserves recognition for the amazing year she has had (she was actually better in The Tree of Life).

Chastain is still young and hot. She'll win one eventually. Unless she turns into Glenn Close.

Dang, I didn't even notice Shailene Woodley didn't get nominated. I don't think she deserved a nom but that's pretty surprising.