I'm feeling Close less and less. They're just not pushing the movie enough. I know it's a great, very Oscar-friendly role--older woman poses as a man to free herself from social constrictions in period Dublin--but it is going to be necessary before the end that people actually see the movie. Where's the release date? Who is even distributing it?

I said nothing one way or the other about whether she should win.

I'm just saying that's an argument in her favor of winning the award. We know the Oscars are political.

She has a much better shot than Glenn Close in a movie that has received only an OK reaction and will probably make next to nothing, imo.

And it's gonna take a monstrous performance to beat Streep, no matter how shitty the movie looks. She's playing Margaret Thatcher for chrissakes. In a Weinstein production. And she hasn't won in almost 30 years. She's basically locked.

I'm seeing in a few weeks but do you guys think Swinton has any chance with We Need to Talk About Kevin? She has gotten a solid amount of praise in reviews.

I don't see it happening. Another Julia/I Am Love. Swinton giving a highly praised performance in a heavy and/or arty movie almost no Academy members actually sit down and watch.

I mean, it's being distributed by Oscilloscope Laboratories...

Dunst doesn't have a chance with a movie being released by Magnolia that will be available via On-Demand at the same time. Olsen has a much bigger chance.

Olsen has a better chance than Dunst, yes, but she still won't get in.

Close
Davis
Mara
Streep
Williams

Though Olsen would be my first alternate choice and is definitely a viable candidate, followed (not very closely) by Theron. I guess we can't ENTIRELY rule out Knightley?

I agree.

Elizabeth Olsen is getting in, imo. If Jennifer Lawrence did for a film that came out even earlier in the year, I think she will too.

Yes, it definitely helps that it's coming out closer to Oscar season. Critics are calling Olsen a revelation. There will be so much buzz for her this Oscar season. I can't see her not making it.

She needs to Mara to fall flat, though. Because she isn't kicking out Streep, Davis, Close, or Williams.

If Fincher and Mara nail Dragon Tattoo in a big way, bye bye Olsen.

Olsen imo is right now the only one that could beat Streep.

One of the easiest TIFF Gala to get tickets for? Albert Nobbs. Very few people seemed to want to see it.

A movie that I waited 2 hours for, and still didn't get tickets? Happened to star Olsen...

The buzz on the roll is intense. She could really take this thing...she isn't an alternate, she's a dark horse frontrunner...

Close still has a better chance of beating Streep. She's a legendary actress who has never won an Oscar in a bait-tastic role.

MMMM is hot now, yes, but we'll see where it goes. Could easily be too grim and "indie" for older Oscar voters. Could lose steam.

The fact more people wanted tickets to MMMM at Toronto indicates it's the cooler of the two movies, not which actress is in a better position in the Oscar race.

Anything's possible, though. Relative newcomer Swank beat a class triple threat--Bening, Streep, and Julianne Moore--in 1999, with a very rough and small film.

But Dragon Tattoo is a big December movie by David Fincher with lots of huge stars. Its audience will go into it knowing it's a flashy, violent murder-mystery movie. MMMM on the other hand seems to be more of an opaque, small, weird, shoot-the-kittens type deal.

Might as well compare The Departed and Requiem for a Dream or something.

I'm not trying to argue Olsen can't be nominated for Best Actress. She's my main alternate at this point should Mara fall out of the running.

At the point you returned to the conversation I was arguing, even if nominated, I believe the movie she's in will be too tough and small for her to rise above Glenn Close in the race.

Well for me, its also a big indicator that there's a strong chance no one will see the movie. It's a very tough sell and its box office could be relatively non-existent.

There is a curiosity factor for mainstream audiences with MMMM. It's the 3rd Olsen sister! As silly as that sounds, I can see it doing better box office wise than Albert Nobbs by a mile. A showy role is one thing, but I have huge doubts that anyone will see it...

Albert Nobbs is another Being Julia type project. Won't do great box office, but the performance will be campaigned to the extreme. Close will be everywhere. Her "she's never won!" narrative will be, too. There will be people who vote for it because they've heard how nice it is, and they admire her in general. Chances are she will still come in second to Streep, though.

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contenti ... re-release

Won't happen. She's great, and she's good in the movie, but still won't happen.

The person from Sarah's Key who should be in the conversation, even more than Thomas, is the young girl who plays Sarah in the '40s sequences.

Felicity Jones and Kirsten Dunst will both be -robbed- in this category.

What about the actress in Pariah? The film opens December 28th from Focus Features and it's supposed to be terrific, and the performance by Adepero Oduye is supposed to be even more impressive.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pariah_2011/

After seeing her movie last Sunday, I consider Williams to have an insurmountable stranglehold for the win, not even a career best performance by Streep can beat Wiliams

That's really cool to hear.

I am so absolutely excited to see My Week with Marilyn on Friday. I hope I'm not disappointed in it.

Just reading the My Week with Marilyn quotes on rottentomates makes me think Best Actress for Michelle Williams is already a lock. Giving it to Michelle Williams playing effed up Marilyn is a much "sexier" choice than giving it to Streep playing Thatcher. I'm also pretty sure 75% of Hollywood is obsessed with Marilyn

I think the Artist gets nominated

This category is actually really interesting. Think I might be temporarily dropping Elizabeth Olsen from my predictions (Martha Marcy May Marlene didn't catch on as much as I was expecting).

Glenn Close
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Charlize Theron
Michelle Williams

I guess I'd have Rooney Mara and Olsen next in line. We'll have to see how the early critics awards go.