With 88/100 and 9 100-reviews at MetaCritic looks like Moneyball has become the second really raved-over major film this year (following Harry Potter).

I see Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close winning now that the trailer has been released. It is EXACTLY the kind of movie the Oscar voters love, it has huge pedigree, the release is timed with the 9/11 anniversary - there's so much going for it.

The lead kid's name in ELaIC is also Oskar.... hehe

I actually dont think Loud will win best pic. I think it will be an audience fave so will be nominated but wont win.

I don't see The Ides of March making it with the good-but-not-glowing reviews. Michael Clayton had much better Metacritic score.

Ides is out, definitely. There's just not going to be enough love. Clooney has The Descendants, too.

After watching the Dragon Tattoo teaser, I thought I was looking at the BP winner, but then I saw the full trailer... much more meh. Never trust an audio/vid mix trailer until you see a bigger

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close on the other hand... doesn't look like your common bait crap as much as a legitimately good movie. For some reason I was expecting it'd be about Hanks caught in the towers and so forth. If it's not really about 9/11 I think it has a better chance. So I would say that's the likely winner

The Descendants is going to win, IMO.

I dunno, I think it's too small. It seems to be an intimate, character-driven work, and while that type of film may have won in the past, I feel like the Academy's been going big and topical lately. Which is why I think EL&IC (as trite and banal as it looks) is gonna win.

I wonder if we're all predicting the wrong Spielberg movie. Maybe Tintin can come out of nowhere (at least in America, where it's been quite low-profile considering its budget and the talent involved) as this Raiders-evoking, four-quadrant, crowd-pleasing hit and sneak into Best Picture.

Here are some odds on a betting site I use:

WAR HORSE 3.00
THE ARTIST 4.00
THE DESCENDANTS 5.00
EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE 7.00
J EDGAR 9.00
MONEYBALL 9.00
THE HELP 11.00
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS 13.00
THE TREE OF LIFE 13.00
THE IDES OF MARCH 17.00
TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY 17.00
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO 21.00
HUGO 26.00
THE IRON LADY 26.00
WARRIOR 26.00
A DANGEROUS METHOD 34.00
HARRY POTTER & THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 34.00
WE BOUGHT A ZOO 34.00
CARNAGE 41.00
MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE 41.00
MY WEEK WITH MARILYN 41.00
SHAME 41.00
DRIVE 51.00
LIKE CRAZY 51.00
TAKE SHELTER 51.00
YOUNG ADULT 51.00
BRIDESMAIDS 67.00
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES 67.00
SUPER 8 67.00
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN 67.00

I'll probably put money on Loud and Descendants.

Of the Big Ones, J. Edgar is definitely the most precarious. Will be interesting to see how reviews pan out. Even bad ones might not stop DiCaprio (see: Cate Blanchett nominated for the Elizabeth sequel), but would definitely halt its Best Picture/Director/etc. chances.

I would bet in January and February and not now. IIRC, the odds are an unbelievable good snatch at that time period since they still have odds going for what we know as absolute locks after the guilds. I believe Slumdog still had odds the week before the Oscars, something like 1 to 2 which was still a phenomenal bet to make.

(if I ever do bet on the Oscars though, I'll be glad for what happened last year with Social Network: NOTHING can be assumed until the guilds)

Still no reviews for J. Edgar. Not really feeling it.

If I had to guess...

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
The Artist
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Descendants
Moneyball
Young Adult

I honestly have little idea at this point.

As I have said from what seems like forever ago (I think I ever made a thread about it ), War Horse is walking away with the top prize. I really hope that Carnage is nominated too, though I doubt it will be.

Early reviews for J. Edgar are coming in, 50% so far at RT with 5.7 average.

It definitely seems primed to fall into the Flags of Our Fathers/Hereafter category, reviews-wise. (Side note: Hereafter is beautiful and deeply underrated.)

This won't stop DiCaprio (or at least it doesn't have to--remember Cate Blanchett's nomination for the Elizabeth sequel), but it would obliterate the film's chances in Picture and Director.

Some previous RT Scores for BP winners:

Out of Africa - 63%
The English Patient - 83%
Gladiator - 78%
A Beautiful Mind - 78%
Crash - 76%

We'll see if J. Edgar has the sentimental, accessible appeal of those films.

J. Edgar won't get in for Best Picture, but Leo should def receive an acting nomination.

Michael: "--initely." Thank you.

I honestly think that Hugo has a very real shot at being a surprise nominee. Reaction has been nothing short of FANTASTIC thus far.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/11/hammond ... pretender/

I don't think it's possible to preemptively despise a movie more than I do this Stephen Daldry 9/11 hipster novel adaptation fiasco thing