That's true. However, for some reason this movie reminds me of Three Kings (another Gulf War satire) and as we know that movie wasn't really recognized much by the Academy. The one thing it has that Three Kings didn't have, though, is the direction by Sam Mendes.

Then again, Road to Perdition wasn't nominated for Best Picture/Director either...

But yes, it is a contender.

Sam Mendes is a plus, it's subject matter though is too topical for a war film in Oscar competiton. War films seem to do better when there is some distance from the actual event. I would place that as a minus.

About Spielberg's movie Vengeance, and people wondering what the title means.....I recall Israel making it a point to hunt down and capture or kill all the terrorists responsible for that, didn't they? I am going to speculate that that is where the title comes from. That it is not just about the incident but about getting the guys who did it.

Actually, they weren't captured. Just killed

You never know. Last year at this time, Eastwood hadn't even begun filming Million Dollar Baby and no one had any idea it would be a contender, much less winner.

That's true, but it's also true that normally at least 1 or 2 films that people were predicting way ahead of time turned out to be right on:

2004 - The Aviator, Finding Neverland
2003 - ROTK, Master and Commander, Seabiscuit
2002 - Chicago, The Hours, Gangs of New York, TTT
2001 - A Beautiful Mind

It's a good write up. Thanks Lecter.

I guess my overall thought about Memoirs of a Geisha is that it is a project that has such plus and minuses that it's really going to (for me) come down to how well it does with the public.

It's got:

- A director who's previous film won best picture. But lighting rarely strikes twice after a big win/nomination. The most recent person who found this out was Sam Mendes, who, despite having one of the most buzzed about movies up until the awards found his Road to Perdition getting shut out (in all fairness though, Road probably would have been nominated if any of those five films failed to get a nomination).

- An interesting cast filled with very good actors that is already causing a bit of cultural controversy. It's got three big assets in the cast. Michelle Yoeh who seems to be universally loved. Zhang Ziyi... who's resume over the past 5 years is probably one of the best in the world, and former nominee Ken Watanabe, who's "follow up" (at least in America) to Last Samurai from his Oscar nomination. My biggest fear here is Ziyi... she can carry her Chinese roles with efficiency, but how will she be percieved as a Chinese actress speaking in a Japanese accented English? Plus, although the Oscars have been more multicultural lately, is the Academy ready to accept an all Asian cast?

- It's got a screenwriter who's had his ups and downs. But can he score a double nomination if Cinderella Man is also a player? Is the academy willing to support him even though A Beautiful Mind was more than enough reward for him (considering a lot of the controversy about A Beautiful Mind was the fault of the screenplay and the direction, not the acting(. Has the Academy been-there-done-that?

- Someone mentioned that John Williams is sure to get a nomination... and while that's probably true, he also has Star Wars Episode III on the plater and War of the Worlds. It's MUCH more probable of John Williams getting a nomination for his vast and really excellent work on the entire Star Wars prequel and his work on the series. The fact that he didn't get a nomination for The Phantom Menace is a bit of an outrage for me. But it's been 11 years since he won and if they are going to reward him for what obviously will be an amazing year (I bet he'll score Vengence too!) it will likely be for his Episode III score.

- Memoirs has a prime release date, that's probably it's best stat at this point.

- And then we come to the final bit of info... Memoris of a Geisha is indeed a Dreamworks picture, and with the semi-demise of Miramax as a big player (if we assume that without the Weinstiens, Miramax is nothing) then Dreamworks is about as questionable of a distributor as New Line or Focus is.

Just my thoughts on things at this point.

I would agree with the general statement, in fact, I would go so far as to say that all of these pictures had been mentioned for best picture before June (ROTK since the day that Two Towers got its nomination, Master and Commander when they moved the date from summer to November, and Seabiscuit really early in the year) and even Mystic River was getting some very early play (Cannes or Sundance? can't remember) and although it was apparently a few edits away from being done, was already a contendor. The only huge surprise of 2003 was Lost in Translation... well... and the disappointment of Cold Mountain.

Even last year at this time, people were talking up Ray and even Eternal Sunshine was released (or close to release?), both ended up being big players. We knew about Maria Full of Grace and its potential pretty early. And The Sea Inside was a known thing throughout most of the year...

So yeah, the game just doesn't begin in October or November, it's not too hard to pinpoint how certain films might fare.

Year 2002 was also a very predictable year. Chicago was buzzed early on due to the re-emergence of musical genre thanks to Moulin Rouge the year before. The uncertainty was with then first-time director Rob Marshall and whether the cast could sing and/or dance. The Hour was heavily mentioned because of its material and cast (the film that I compare Memoirs of a Geisha the most with). TTT was due to the success of FOTR, and we know why Gangs of New York was deemed as the frontrunner more than one year ahead of the time. And once The Pianist won Cannes, people were whispering its chance considering its subject matter, as long as it could get a release in time in U.S.

That's an interesting comparison between The Hours and Memoirs... I'll have to think about that.

A very undeserved one. It deserved a Best Picture nomination...

But I agree, some years have been pretty predictable and 2002 really stciks out as Chicago, Gangs of New York and The Two Towers have been locks all the way and The Pianist had the Schindler's List-factor going for it along with excellent reviews and the Cannes prize.

I think with the major exception of "Vengence" (the quotes because not the real title... etc.) and because of the apparent demise of Miramax to some degree that 2005 will be the most unpredictable year in awhile.

I think Million Dollar Baby has cleared the pallette enough that anything could potentially win (meaning that after Return of the King, I had a sinking feeling that they didn't want to award another massive epic this year, but rather a smaller film like Million or Sideways).

I consider Memoirs of a Geisha to be very close to a lock, even moreso than Vengeance.

A question that many have asked about the plot of Vengeance apparently cleared up:

Plot Outline: In the tragic aftermath of the 1972 Munich Olympics, a Mossad agent (Bana) tracks Palestinian terrorists who assassinated Israeli athletes. (IMDB)

So Spielberg is, indeed, going for controversy.

Yay!

Its only controversial if he makes it as such. There was a pretty bad documentary I saw about it One Day in Septemeber, that I think wen tover pretty easily here because of how easily it protrayed the issue. Not to say the issue is easy, of course, but doing a strict biographical retelling of how the hostage takers were recovered doesn't necessarily push any buttons.

I like Spielberg, so I doubt that's the route he'll go, but its just a thought.

I don't think it will be controversial. It risks being boring and routine though.

Nah, its Spielberg. he always rises to the challenge when dealing with the Jews. On the other hand, he's never controversial about the subject. But he's definately not boring and routine about it either. The hostage shootings were also an event that lend themselves to such a movie, because they're not boring or routine either. I remember the Olympic polive didn't even carry guns that year. Thewre was alot of shock and national media attention, and the runner who went on afterwards to do alot of political campaigning I believe. It could be interesting, really it depends on what Spielberg focusses on.

Well, the whole assassination thing was very controversial.

Just think of the Lillehammer Affair. I wonder if Spielberg brings that into the movie.

Well, about 8 months later, my predictions still stand. I am just a bit shakier on The New World now. Haven't heard much of it lately. But the other two still seem fine.

The New World just reminds me of Alexander.. don't know why exactly, lol

it might not be as badly received as that one (or bomb as badly), but I really don't see a more positive reaction than Jarhead, just to give an example of a previous frontrunner... I might be wrong though..

Oh, goodness.

This thread is one of the prime examples of how no one expected this whole Brokeback thing.

Munich, Geisha, New World the three biggies, heh.

Hehe, it's really fun to look back. Well, Munich will most likely still get its noms and Geisha will be a powerhouse with the technicals, but The New World...ouch.

If the Academy embraced Malick and The Thin Red Line, I can't see that with a similar level of competition this year, that the superior The New World would end up with nothing. Of course the nominations have yet to be announced, but I think even TTRL had some precursor support, whereas New World has had none. It makes me sick to think that the poor man's Ray (aka Walk the Line) will very likely be getting a best picture nomination in place of films that are much more worthy.

3 Biggies> OK.

- Bigget disappointments
- Biggest mistakes
- Biggest Oscar major shutouts or we will take home anything gold, please sir.

etc.