why all The Reader love all of a sudden?
A) It sucks.
B) It's a NAZI SYMPATHIZING movie (well, an argument can be made). Not generally the type of WW2 movie the AMPAS bites at.
C) Pedophilia

If Winslet wasn't in it, I doubt anyone here would even be yapping about the fuckin' movie.

Slumdog isn't making BP.

Oh Chippy

Gimme a fucking break.

what do you mean? did you see the movie? she's a pedophile. give your fucking self a break.

You sure about that?

This year's possible surprises, in order of likelyhood (I'm not including stuff like Melissa Leo which I would not find very surprising)...

1. Benicio del Toro for Best Actor.
2. Mike Leigh, Jonathan Demme, Andrew Stanton or Woody Allen getting a Best Director nomination over Gus van Sant.
3. Debra Winger (or for that matter even Rosemarie Dewitt who WOULD be a surprising nominee at this point) getting a Best Suporting Actress nomination.
4. Gran Torino for Best Picture.
5. Michelle Williams for Best Actress.

Look up the definition of pedophilia before you start typing.

15 is a child. I don't care if he has a big dick.

So if he had been just a year older it automatically becomes non-pedophilia?

something like that. anyways, they were clearly going for the controversy, otherwise they wouldn't have chosen an actor with the face of an 8 year old.

hmm...I agree on Che. Actor very well may happen.

What if...Rock Me Sexy Jesus made best song? That would be fun.

Also, I've decided RDJ is missing Supporting. But who cares?

Wall-E replacing The Dark Knight for Picture... that's a big one that I'm not predicting, but really think could happen. There is just so much naturally working against TDKm especially with the Globes snub... the only thing keeping it in my predictions is the fact that there really are only four other movies that seem like better bets than it. And because Wall-E has just as much, if not more, going against it, it's hard to say that they'll go for it as a replacement.

Maybe Revolutionary Road could somehow land a BP nom in its stead. That's really unlikely, but they do like Mendes, and the material/cast is there... but the reviews definitely weren't.

In the acting categories, the top 6 or 7 are far too certain for any surprise to really make its way in there. Maybe there will be a Screenplay surprise, as there often is.

Anne Hathaway getting snubbed

What kind of movie is The Reader?

Debra Winger/Jonathan Demme getting in would be a good shock.

The Wrestler and Wall-E will make it in Best Picture. Button and (shockingly) Milk are excluded. Though both still get director nominations while Darren and Ron Howard are left out.

Oh this isn't your wildest hopes thread?

I believe so, as Bloody Sunday was also disqualified for similar reasons back in 2002, despite great reviews.

As for snubs, I have been pondering Milk snubs in both Director and possibly Picture. I could at least see a scenario where Howard gets in for Director while van Sant is snubbed, but both of their films are still nominated for Picture. I'm not gonna predict them, but they're possible.

Also, massive Gran Torino love. That would be amazing.

I think double noms for Clint (Actor, Song) are more than enough.

I'm actually only predicting it in Actor right now. The Original Song rules currently require voters to watch the song in the context of the film, which is probably why all three Enchanted songs and the August Rush song made it in last year. That greatly hurts most end credit songs, so Clint will probably be snubbed.

Also, is "The Wrestler" played only over the end credits? Because if so, that song might be screwed.

However, that new rule could also possibly help two badass nominees (If the voters have a sense of humor): "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" and "Dracula's Lament." Please?

I want Dracula's Lament to get in just so we can finally have the return of puppets to the Oscar broadcast.

"Dracula's Lament" getting in for Original Song would easily be the most awesome shock. It needs to happen.

Wrestler song is in the credits

So is Down to Earth mind you

Is that really the rule, no end credit songs? Blech.

It's not the rule, but it has to do with how the nominating committee hears/sees the nominees - they get a presentation of the film clip where the song appears or is heard, no special music videos or long form concert performance on DVD. So if it's an end credits song, they just get the song and the scrolling end titles/credits.