The problem with this idea is that it's also had an incredibly limited release for BP contender. The only Best Picture nominees with a more limited release pre-nomination are Million Dollar Baby (147), which also had made less than $9 million before the nomination. MDB's pre-Picture was was definitely more impressive, and F/N won't come anywhere near the box office of that film, but I think it matching its budget is a lot more possible than you give it credit for.

IF Frost/Nixon gets a BP nom (I assume it will), then I am absolutely sure it'll clear $20 million in total.

Yes, but MDB was still pulling big PTAs. I don't understand why F/N isn't doing somewhat better either. As limited as the subject matter is, it's not moreso than say Good Night And Good Luck and I'm seeing a pretty sizable marketing campaign.

Truth is, though, I am wondering if Milk or Benjamin Button could get snubbed just as easily. I've been toying with scenarios all week and none of them seem to ring all that true, but Ben Button's starting to make a lot of sense. Moreso than Frost maybe. Maybe I am a believer soon...

with weekend estimates, Curious Case passes $100 Mill

The Dark Knight - $531,027,799 (after 182 days) Not Updated
WALL-E - $223,762,336 (after 175 days) *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $102,624,000 (after 25 days)
Gran Torino - $73,232,000 (after 38 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $42,737,000 (after 68 days)
Doubt - $25,357,000 (after 38 days)
Vicky Christina Barcelona - $22,936,000 (after 157 days)
Milk - $20,382,000 (after 54 days)
Rachel Getting Married - $10,756,000 (after 108 days)
Frost/Nixon - $8,665,000 (after 45 days)
The Reader - $7,512,000 (after 40 days)
Revolutionary Road - $5,694,000 (after 24 days)
The Wrestler - $5,062,000 (after 33 days)
Happy-Go-Lucky - $3,422,661 (after 98 days) Not Updated

* no longer in theatres

I think box-office actually helps Slumdog Millionaire's cause A LOT. It's not like awarding Crash which made less than $60 million. TDK had the box-office case going for it, but for a film like Slumdog to make it to $110-130 million (which I think it is looking at) is pretty admirable. That'd make it a bigger b/o success than NCFOM, Million Dollar Baby, Crash...

I agree. I do wonder about Benjamin Button. Maybe releasing it on Christmas Day proper wasn't a great idea.

Fine, sure.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, and Milk are 99.6% in.

I do agree with you that Milk seems like an oddly enough very possible snubbee come Oscar morning. The bad press from the gay community would be bad, but I could still see it.

But at least we all agree that TDK is in actuality the weakest of the five, right? Right?

Perhaps, but I'm looking at the less-obvious snubs that have cropped up almost every year since Cold Mountain (except 2004). Plus as long as TDK does get a Picture nomination it's probably the #2 film for the win (albeit, a VERY distant second), which is why I'm thinking about Milk-Ben-Frost. Less on Frost, but still.

Not much movement on the last day of mass tracking. The Wrestler should begin passing the sub $10 Mill films soon.

The Dark Knight - $531,037,655 (after 186 days)
WALL-E - $223,762,336 (after 175 days) *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $103,610,033 (after 26 days)
Gran Torino - $76,603,810 (after 39 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $43,858,932 (after 69 days)
Doubt - $25,506,742 (after 39 days)
Vicky Christina Barcelona - $23,016,104 (after 158 days)
Milk - $20,543,583 (after 55 days)
Rachel Getting Married - $10,758,023 (after 109 days)
Frost/Nixon - $8,777,776 (after 46 days)
The Reader - $7,808,169 (after 41 days)
Revolutionary Road - $6,109,157 (after 25 days)
The Wrestler - $5,356,214 (after 34 days)
Happy-Go-Lucky - $3,494,485 (after 102 days)


* no longer in theatres

Ben Button's kind of stalled.

if it scores big at the Oscars (10+ noms, including all the big ones it's expected to get), it should see a terrific run over the next month or so. It and Slumdog are the only two Oscar movies with any real momentum at the moment, so I'm guessing they'll both benefit the most from tomorrow.

I think it will at least get to Capote's total. Its PTA has been holding up fine.

and just like that

The Dark Knight - $531,037,655 (after 186 days)
WALL-E - $223,762,336 (after 175 days) *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $103,610,033 (after 26 days)
Gran Torino - $76,603,810 (after 39 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $43,858,932 (after 69 days)
Doubt - $25,506,742 (after 39 days)
Vicky Christina Barcelona - $23,016,104 (after 158 days)
Milk - $20,543,583 (after 55 days)
Rachel Getting Married - $10,758,023 (after 109 days)
Frost/Nixon - $8,777,776 (after 46 days)
The Reader - $7,808,169 (after 41 days)
Revolutionary Road - $6,109,157 (after 25 days)
The Wrestler - $5,356,214 (after 34 days)
Happy-Go-Lucky - $3,494,485 (after 102 days)

in comparison

2008 (1/22)

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $103,610,033 (after 26 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $43,858,932 (after 69 days)
Milk - $20,543,583 (after 55 days)
Frost/Nixon - $8,777,776 (after 46 days)
The Reader - $7,808,169 (after 41 days)

2007 (1/22)

Juno - 87.0
No Country for Old Men - 48.8
Atonement - 32.6
Michael Clayton - 39.3
There Will Be Blood - 8.6

2006 (1/23)

Departed - 121.7
Little Miss Sunshine - 59.5
The Queen - 35.8
Babel - 22.8
Letters from Iwo Jima - 2.5

2005 (1/31)

Crash - 53.4
Brokeback Mountain - 51.6
Munich - 40.7
Good Luck and Good Night - 25.1
Capote - 15.4

2004 (1/25)

Ray - 73.0
The Aviator - 58.4
Finding Neverland - 32.7
Sideways - 32.4
Million Dollar Baby - 8.4

2003 (1/27)

Return of the King - 338.3
Seabiscuit - 120.2
Master and Commander - 85.3
Mystic River - 59.1
Lost in Translation - 34.8

And people thought the box office would screw over FROST/NIXON.

Can Milk get any BO momemtum out of today's nominations? Enough for a BP upset?

oy, that's pretty awful. Only two nominees that are gonna finish with over 50m. And we could've potentially had four nominees that finished with over 100m. So sad.

It should get some to push it over $40m, but not enough for a BP upset. The 8 noms showed good support though, and with Wrestler not doing as well as it could've been, I think Penn is in a good position to win his second, unless they want to throw one Frost/Nixon way (but I haven't felt any real or conscious support growing behind Langella).

Tuesday's Box Office

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $103,979,578 (after 27 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $44,239,067 (after 70 days)
Milk - $20,591,008 (after 56 days)
Frost/Nixon - $8,821,381 (after 47 days)
The Reader - $7,908,301 (after 42 days)

Friday's Numbers

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $106,729,000 (after 30 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $48,141,000 (after 73 days)
Milk - $20,752,634 (after 58 days) though Thursday only
Frost/Nixon - $9,786,000 (after 50 days)
The Reader - $8,598,000 (after 45 days)

Not much to report. Slumdog will pass $50 Mill today.

Weekend Estimates

Slumdog is officially 1/2 of Benjamin Button's gross and climbing.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $111,044,000 (after 32 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $55,916,000 (after 75 days)
Milk - $21,632,000 (after 61 days)
Frost/Nixon - $12,006,000 (after 52 days)
The Reader - $9,674,000 (after 47 days)

Which means Slumdog wins.

actuals

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $111,129,482 (after 32 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $56,065,245 (after 75 days)
Milk - $21,637,349 (after 61 days)
Frost/Nixon - $12,005,811 (after 52 days)
The Reader - $9,661,121 (after 47 days)

GO READER!

these numbers are depressing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $114,029,000 (after 37 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $61,864,000 (after 80 days)
Milk - $22,399,000 (after 66 days)
Frost/Nixon - $13,333,000 (after 57 days)
The Reader - $10,975,000 (after 52 days)

Well, at least two of the nominees are moneymakers, if that makes you feel better.

This crop kind of reminds me of 1996 (Jerry Maguire, The English Patient, Fargo, Secrets & Lies, Shine) in terms of box office.