I'm very unemotional about the race this year. I think there's a shitload of quality in the nominations except for Score/Song/etc.

I love No Country, and have a lot of respect for Blood and Atonement.

BTW, people shouldn't read my Viggo "want to win" as a Daniel-Day diss. I just think Viggo's transformation into a Russian, the fantastic script, and his awesome physical performance is just more impressive slightly in Daniel's performance. I loved Daniel's performance, however.

I must say that I was really really disappointed by Mortensen. I mean, it's not that he was bad, but I wouldn't even nominate him. He was solid, but I've seen muh better this year. Didn't come across to Russian to me (maybe because I know them too well?). Dunno...

Lead performances (male) I liked more this year: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Gordon Pinset, Emile Hirsch, Casey Affleck (he's lead dammit!), Brad Pitt....

I dunno Lecter. I asked my Russian immigrant co-worker, who saw the film, and she said it's the best accent/portrayal of a Russian she's ever seen by an American/Non-Russian.

Have you guys seen the "12"? It took all the best things from Lumet's film - only those who haven't seen the original might like it. It would be simply unfair to Lumet's classics regardless of the great acting works in Mikhalkov's picture (excluding himself - he was terrible, overacting in every scene). Have the academics seen the original? Another thing: it is too clear that he made the film specifically for awards.

(no spoilers here) "12" has no logic in it: Mikhalkov's hero, the smartest guy in the room, just seats there for 2.5 hours listening to 11 heartbreaking stories before revealing his "great twist" in the end. When the decision of the jury totally coincided with his hero's idea and he should say just a word to ratify it and do "the right thing", he kept silence and did nothing, but when the decision was completely opposing to his idea, he said his word trying to convince everybody to change their mind and not to make a "terrible mistake" - what's the logic? Oh, there would be no movie then, right? No tears, no talking, no dramatism, no lifelessons? That's only one of the obvious flaws of the screenplay.

Mikhalkov is already INTOLERABLE in Russia with 1 Oscar - Mikhalkov with 2 Oscars would be too much for our poor poor country. His ego is bigger than Universe already! Can you imagine something TWICE as big as the Universe?

Viggo doesn't look like Russian. Nobody in this film looked like Russian except probably for the Watts' aunt and uncle and the Mob Boss (they seemed more like slavic types).

So, if he has an accent, that makes him Russian?

What I didn't like in the movie is that when Cronenberg wants to portray a Russian, the guy either curses heavily or drinks. Vodka in every single scene - that was damn frustrating. Everybody is drinking. Ok, caviar and borsh - I can understand it. Why didn't he use other national stereotypes? Where are the bears walking down the streets? Where's matryoshki? Why nobody wears shapki-ushanki? Alhough I like that he included the song "Ochi chyorniye", that was nice. Overall the portrayal of the criminal world was not that unreal, although I bet the real thieves in law (vory v zakone) would be laughing out loud. And there was no criminal jargon (fenya) and no mat (at least I never noticed a word - what about you, Lecter?) - that seriously decreased realism. In other countries it will be watchable, but if you are from the former Soviet Union, you see the flaws.

Agree with Lecter - I wouldn't nominate Viggo either. Viggo ne vor v zakone. On frierok.

In fear of anyx sppoilers, I still skipped your post...but I just wanted to say that I'll be seeing 12 within the next two weeks...

There was no "real" mat, just some tame stuff like svoloch or suchka, I think. Any Russian criminal not saying "yob tvoyu mat'" at least once is not a Russian, hehe.

There's nothing to fear - I haven't revealed any storyline twists. It's just the whole conceptual thing. But still you may want to read my post after you see the film just to test if you noticed this biggest screenplay flaw.

(no spoilers here). You probably know that they should first come to one decision and then change it just like in Lumet's film.


I would say any Russian not saying "yob tvoyu mat'" at least once is not a Russian. Russian criminals have very unique language, and if they don't speak fenya, they are not Russian criminals.

no country for old men - best picture

paul thomas anderson - best director

daniel day lewis - best actor

marie cotillard - best actress

javier bardem - best supporting actor

amy ryan - best supporting actress

juno - original screenplay

no country for old men - adapted screenplay

Changed my supporting actress prediction to Tilda Swinton for a couple of reasons.
#1- They love MC
#2- Since it received so many noms, pretty much everyone in the Academy will see it, versus relatively few for Cate and Amy Ryan. And since Ronan has zero chance, that leaves only Tilda and Dee as widely seen performances.
#3- Once everyone sees it, they'll realize she's phenomenal in it.

....but this could go to anyone but Ronan.

And also, I was beginning to think MC could take Original Screenplay, but I'm sticking with Juno, with my reasoning being that The Savages will take votes from MC (even though The Savages has zero chance at a win). They'll split the old geezers. MC is still a possible spoiler, as is Ratatouille, but this is probably going to Juno.

Cinematography could go to anyone, IMO, with Assassination being least likely. I'm changing my prediction from Diving Bell to TWBB, though.

Best motion picture of the year

"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production: Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers

Achievement in directing

"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)


Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)


Performance by an actress in a leading role

Ellen Page in "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)


Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)


Adapted screenplay

"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen


Original screenplay

"Juno" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Diablo Cody


Best animated feature film of the year

"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Brad Bird


Achievement in art direction

"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo


Achievement in cinematography

"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit


Achievement in costume design

"Atonement" (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran


Best documentary feature

"Sicko" (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog Eat Dog Films Production: Michael Moore and Meghan O'Hara


Achievement in film editing

"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Dylan Tichenor


Best foreign language film of the year

"The Counterfeiters" Austria


Achievement in makeup

"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

"Falling Slowly" from "Once" (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova


Achievement in sound editing

"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins


Achievement in sound mixing

"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin


Achievement in visual effects

"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

Just curious, will be official KJ game still go on (the one where you rank from 1-5 and if you #1 choice wins, it's five points, and if the #5 choice wins, it's one point, you know, that game).

Picture
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Want to win: Atonement

Directing
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Want to win: No Country For Old Men?

Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Want to win: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Want to Win: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by th Coward Robert Ford

Lead Actress:
Will Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Want to Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Want to win: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Want to win: Atonement

Screenplay - Original
Will win: Juno
Want to win: Lars and the Real Girl

Animated film:
Will win: Ratatouille
Want to win: Persepolis

Art Direction:
Will win: There Will Be Blood
Want to win: Atonement (though I don't mind Sweeney winning)

Cinematography:
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Want to win: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (or Atonement)

Costumes:
Will win: Atonement
Want to win: Atonement

Documentary:
Will win: No End in Sight
Want to win: no preference

Editing:
Will win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Want to win: No Country For Old Men?

Foreign Film
"I have no fucking clue" - word.

Make-up:
Will win: La Vie en Rose
Want to win: no preference

Music:
Will win: Atonement
Want to win: Atonement

Song
Will win: "That's How You Know"
Want to win: "That's How You Know"

Sound Editing:
Will win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Want to win: No Country For Old Men

Sound Mixing:
Will win: Transformers
Want to win: Transformers (for O'Connell)

Visual Effects:
Will win: Transformers
Want to win: no preference

Picture
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Should win: Atonement

Directing
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Should win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Should win: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Lead Actress:
Will Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Should Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Should win: I would be happy with anyone of them winning.

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: No Country For Old Men
Should win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Screenplay - Original
Will win: Juno
Should win: Juno or The Savages

Animated film:
Will win: Ratatouille
Should win: I've only seen Rat, but I feel pretty confident saying it deserves it.

Art Direction:
Will win: There Will Be Blood
Should win: Atonement

Cinematography:
Will win: There Will Be Blood
Should win: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. or Atonement. Or Diving Bell, really. Strong category.

Costumes:
Will win: Atonement
Should win: Atonement

Documentary:
Will win: No End in Sight (I think...)
Should win: Have only seen sicko.

Editing:
Will win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Should win: The Bourne Ultimatum

Foreign Film
Will Win: The Counterfeiters.

Make-up:
Will win: La Vie en Rose
Should Win: La Vie en Rose

Score:
Will win: Atonement
Should win: Atonement

Song
Will win: "Falling Slowly"
Should Win: "Despedida"

Sound Editing:
Will win: Tranformers
Should Win: Bourne Ultimatum

Sound Mixing:
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Bourne Ultimatum

Visual Effects:
Will win: Transformers
Should Win: The Golden Compass

Documentary Short: Freeheld

Animated Short: Madame Tutli-Putli

Live Action Short: Tanghi Argentini

Final (?) Winner Predictions:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Original Screenplay: Juno
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Foreign Language Feature: The Counterfeiters
Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Original Score: Atonement
Original Song: "Falling Slowly," Once
Sound Mixing: No Country for Old Men (based mostly on the guild win; Transformers could just as easily win here)
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men (see above)
Visual Effects: Transformers

I've had another one of my prophetic visions....could Julian Schnabel possibly shock the fuck out of everyone and win Best Director?

My predicts:

Picture: No Country For Old Men
Director: Coen Bros. - No Country
Actor: Day Lewis
Actress: Julie Christie
Supp. Actor - Javier Bardem
Supp. Actress - Ruby Dee (yes, I know, still, the SAG win is there and she's the "veteran" choice)
Original Screenplay - Juno
Adapted Screenplay - No Country
Editing - Bourne Ultimatum
Cinematography - There Will Be Blood
Art Direction - Sweeney Todd
Costume Design - Atonment
Makeup - La Vie en Rose
Visuals - Transformers
Sound - No Country
Sound Editing - Transformers
Score - Atonment
Song - "That's How You Know"
Animated Feature - Ratatouille
Foreign Language Feature: The Counterfeiters
Documentary - No End in Sight

My very final predictions:


Best motion picture of the year

No Country for Old Men


Achievement in directing

Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)


Performance by an actor in a leading role

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)


Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)


Performance by an actress in a leading role

Ellen Page (Juno)


Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)


Adapted screenplay

No Country for Old Men


Original screenplay

Ratatouille


Best animated feature film of the year

Ratatouille


Achievement in art direction

Atonement


Achievement in cinematography

There Will Be Blood


Achievement in costume design

Sweeney Todd


Best documentary feature

No End in Sight


Achievement in film editing

There Will Be Blood


Best foreign language film of the year

12


Achievement in makeup

La Vie En Rose


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

Atonement


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

"Falling Slowly" (Once)


Achievement in sound editing

Transformers


Achievement in sound mixing

Transformers


Achievement in visual effects

Transformers

All the obvious choices for the big ones, then Dee in Supporting Actress.

I'll have to do the rest later, I'm a bit strapped for time.

On a side note, have any of you ever bet on Oscar lines? I was thinking that since Bardem and Lewis are 100% locks, it'd be easy money. Granted I'm not old enough yet, but yeah. It's something I may look into if I need cash as an adult.

No Country will win Best Picture.

Diving Bell will win either Director OR Adapted Screenplay

Julie Christie will win Best Actress

Tilda Swinton will win Best Supporting Actress

As is well documented, I don't bother with this stuff anymore due to obvious reasons and some of the people here at this messageboard. If I did, however, there are a few guarantees that you would see!

1. This forum wouldn't be dull (where's the life? )and the website would be still celebrating my Departed prediction that I made while everybody else was listening to online "experts", and repeating what they were saying. "The Departed isn't an Oscar type film...." Damn, just think of how much the other sites would have tuned in THIS year to get the scoop from me had that bullshit not been played with me here!!!

2. I would have, no doubt, called the winners again, and gave detailed reasons that made absolute perfect sense, despite everybody here wanting to argue how I was wrong and would never admit I was wrong, even though it turned out that I was right, as usual! (example: George Clooney winning Best Supporting actor over Paul Giamatti, among the endless examples! )

3. Select members ( ) would be so bent out of shape by my awards knowledge and analytical skills, that they would again start following me around starting shit and accusing me of being the bad guy.

4. My track record ( ), my beautiful and all mighty track record ( ) , would be added to (yet again!) and feelings would be hurt because of that.

Oh, what could have been!

My Predictions in a nutshell:

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men (Miramax)

Best Direction
No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)

Best Original Screenplay
Juno (Diablo Cody)

Best Foreign Language Film
The Counterfeiters (Austria)

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille

Best Documentary Feature
No End In Sight

Best Documentary Short
Sari's Mother

Best Animated Short
I Met the Walrus

Best Live-Action Short
Il Supplente (The Substitute)

Best Art Direction
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dante Ferretti, Francesca lo Schiavo)

Best Cinematography
No Country for Old Men (Roger Deakins)

Best Costume Design
Atonement (Jacqueline Durrane)

Best Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum (Christopher Rouse)

Best Makeup
La Vie En Rose (Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald)

Best Original Score
Atonement (Dario Marianelli)

Best Original Song
"Falling Slowly," from Once

Best Sound Mixing
Transformers (Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin)

Best Sound Effects Editing
Transformers (Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn)

Best Visual Effects
Transformers (Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier)

No Country for Old Men - 5
Transformers - 3
Atonement - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
Everything else - 1

Detailed analysis on the major categories with some brief commentary on the race this year here.

But Bobby as a Best Pic nominee!

oh, don't forget Walk the Line... and Two Towers

It DID get a best picture nomination!

I always stated without question that it didn't matter what other movies filled out the top 5, it was all just going through the motions until Marty won Best Director and the Departed won Best Picture. That's exactly what happened!

It was nominated at the Golden Globes.

It didn't even have a SINGLE Oscar nomination.