The problem is, since all the awards are going to only a few films, there is no indication that Rwanda or Sunshine or Closer, etc. at this point have any love at all to speak of.

There is more of a case for Incredibles getting a Best Picture nom than the films i just mentioned.

My thought is that, it may be fine that these are not locks, but really, take away your personal bias, and what films remain that are actually scoring with the guilds... Collateral? Incredibles? That's about it.

We shall see

Ray won't be nominated.

zzzz at the nominations, but at least no films I disliked ( thoughhaven't seen MDB). But Forster did do a really poor directing job despite the great last act of the movie.

Geez...predictable, predictable, predictable. :Sleep:

The awards are on January 29th, I still believe Eastwood will get this one.

- Why did you think he would Oscar if not DGA. That doesn't seem to make sense.

- Looks like you are flipping on Payne and even Scorcese as now you are picking Eastwood for the Oscar.

Gotta love Lecter as he is all over the place.

Because it was long time ago, idiot. Times have changed with Giamatti's snub at the Oscars. And why even bringing this up, I was right to begin with. Scorcese didn't get it.

Lecter the main and first part of that question was still relelvant as I was looking through this thread as the awards were last night.

I was pointing out that it doesn't make sense to say different director's are going to win the DGA and the Oscar - it has hardly ever happened? Maybe if you stated your reasons but as I said above, it doesn't make sense.

Please note the ones in red and blue. Especially a result that included Mr. Eastwood in 1992.

Year: DGA, Oscar (PGA / Oscar Best Picture)
2005: Clint Eastwood, ?? (The Aviator / ??)
2004: Peter Jackson, Peter Jackson (Return of the King / Return of the King)
2003: Rob Marshall, Roman Polanski (Chicago / Chicago)
2002: Ron Howard, Ron Howard (Moulin Rouge! / A Beautiful Mind)
2001: Ang Lee, Steven Soderberg (Gladiator / Gladiator)
2000: Sam Mendes, Sam Mendes (American Beauty / American Beauty)
1999: Steven Spielberg, Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan / Shakespeare in Love)
1998: James Cameron, James Cameron (Titanic / Titanic)
1997: Anthony Minghella, Anthony Minghella (The English Patient / The English Patient)
1996: Ron Howard, Mel Gibson (Apollo 13 / Braveheart)
1995: Robert Zemeckis, Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump / Forrest Gump)
1994: Steven Spielberg, Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List / Schindler's List)
1993: Clint Eastwood, Clint Eastwood (The Crying Game / Unforgiven)
1992: Jonathan Demme, Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs / Silence of the Lambs)
1991: Kevin Coster Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves / Dances With Wolves)
1990: Oliver Stone, Oliver Stone (Driving Miss Daisy / Driving Miss Daisy)

(PGA doesn't go back any farther)

This year is already shaping up to be an insane race because PGA gave the award to The Aviator, Clint won drama at the Globes and DGA. It was thought, at the beginning of the season, by us and pundits that Director was the one award that Marty would get for The Aviator. It would be insanely odd to see Eastwood win Oscar director and see The Aviator get picture.

PGA has only been missmatched with the DGA 5 times. One of those 5 is this year. We're already in a weird zone.

Of the 4 remaining years where this split has happened...

1. In three of those four years, DGA and Director Oscar matched (the fourth, director of Driving Miss Daisy wasn't even nominated).
2. In those four years, Director Oscar and Best Picture matched 50%
3. In those four years, Director Oscar NEVER matches PGA.

Conclusion based on statistics alone:

1. Clint Eastwood has a better shot at winning Best Director than Martin Scorsese.
2. Million Dollar Baby has a better than 50% chance of winning Best Picture.

DGA History of the Nominees (taken from Oscarwatch):

Alexander Payne (1) - this is his first nomination

Marc Forster (1) - this is his first nomination

Taylor Hackford (2) - nominated twice, first for An Officer and a Gentleman in 1982

Clint Eastwood (3) - won for Unforgiven, '92, nominated last year for Mystic River (lost to Peter Jackson, ROTK), won this year for Million Dollar Baby

Martin Scorsese (6) - nominated for Taxi Driver in '76 (lost to John Advilson for Rocky - read it and weep), for Raging Bull in '80 (lost to Robert Redford, Ordinary People), for Goodfellas in '90 (lost to Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves), for Age of Innocence in '93 (lost to Steven Spielberg for Schindler's List), last year for Gangs of New York (lostto Rob Marshall for Chicago), and this year - lost to Clint Eastwood.

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Man.... Scorcese should have won this.

Despite my disappointment, still a huge congrats to Eastwood!! Great director and obviously a suitable winner. I still think Scorcese, for now, will win it at the Oscars, although I may change my mind. I think the Academy will think most in terms of "who's due" more than any other awards organization.

The race this year is awesome! Everything is fairly mixed up. The Aviator or Million Dollar Baby could conceivably win for Best Picture, and Scorcese or Eastwood could conceivably win for Best Director. Actress seems to be up in the air between 3 women, and the supporting actor & actress categories are far from a "one person lock". Who knows what will happen.

PEACE, Mike

You know the problem with this is that we only have 15 years to look back at (considering the PGA dooesn't go back any further).

Well looking at 92 - lets review - was that a mistake in hindsight.

On the Crying Game, did that deserve it or just because or the surprise ( Spoiler if you haven't seen it - She's a Man ).

I think Unforgiven should have gotten the PGA.

I don't have a problem with the other choice as I can see the difference between - Moulin Rouge and A Beautiful Mind.

I know, we work with what we got though :???:

I STILL think Scorsese will win Best Director, but no place on that list does the DGA have one result and then (if you consider the director/picture one entity) Oscar Director & Picture and PGA have another result. So I'm predicting something that has never happened before.

I am beginning to think Million Dollar Baby will win picture though. Clint, as listed as a producer, will walk away with an Oscar for Producer. Scorsese will not (although Michael Mann will if Aviator wins!).

Regardless, we're in a really interesting zone, and if the result is The Aviator winning Director and Picture, it is setting a precident in a way. But then there is the split thing?

Odd year. Who would have thought? I mean, we even made it through the end of the year thinking The Aviator was a sure thing, and now it's most uncontested races are in technical categories.

Who knows if giving PGA to The Aviator is a mistake in hindsight?

That's just a personal judgement on Crying Game, it, to this day, remains a great film.

Ok, if you feel it is a great film and not a one trick pony. I haven't seen it in about 10 years so I can't judge.

Actually, the more I look at it, the more sense it makes. The Director Oscar never matched PGA..well, I expect Eastwood to win Best Director at the Oscars which would prove that once again.

As for Best Picture, I stick with my The Aviator prediction. There has been this trend recenlty that every other year there is a split between Director and Picture:

2004 - Peter Jackson/ROTK
2003 - Roman Polanski/Chicago
2002 - Ron Howard/A Beautiful Mind
2001 - Steven Soderbergh/Gladiator
2000 - Sam Mendes/American Beauty
1999 - Steven Spielberg/Shakespeare in Love

Well, you see the trend. According to it, this year would be another split. As you have said the PGA has never matched Best Director in a year like this one, therefore, Eastwood is more likely to win Best Director. Considering the trend of splits, The Aviator is likely to win Best Picture then.

I think The Crying Game is better than Unforgiven personally, but that's not the point.

The problem is you brought a personal assessment in to the discussion as a way of ignoring potentially problematic statistics.

There is no data to prove that the Producers Guild made an error in choosing The Crying Game over Unforgiven, it is just what they felt at the time was the film they wanted to award. So if you want to look at this statistically, there is no reason to discard the 1992 results.

FYI, I wasn't looking to discard it. It happened and you can't change that. I was just asking how good was the movie, did that shock have anything to do with it winning ( maybe it was because it was before the internet or it wasn't a mainstream movie but that shock stayed quiet for months until people saw the movie ) and looking back which did people think was the better movie, that is all.

Clint Eastwood won. Does anyone know by now?


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... tor_awards


BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. - Clint Eastwood (news) was declared filmmaker of the year by his peers, winning the Directors Guild of America honor for the boxing saga "Million Dollar Baby."

Saturday's award solidifies Eastwood's prospects to win his second best-director prize at the Academy Awards (news - web sites) on Feb. 27. He previously won the Academy Award and guild prize for 1992's "Unforgiven," which also was that year's best-picture champ at the Oscars (news - web sites).

Eastwood's triumph dashed fellow nominee Martin Scorsese's hopes yet again. With the Howard Hughes epic "The Aviator," Scorsese earned his sixth guild nomination for best director, but he has lost every time.

"Million Dollar Baby" stars Eastwood as a curmudgeonly boxing trainer and reluctant mentor to a scrappy fighter (Hilary Swank) who becomes a champion in the ring before her life takes a tragic turn. Morgan Freeman (news) co-stars as an ex-boxer and resident sage of the gym where Swank's character trains.

Eastwood offered gracious thanks to Swank and Freeman, saying their presence made his job as director a delight.

"I've just got to say that this is a real pleasure," Eastwood said. "I've worked with Hilary and Morgan, just fabulous people to be making a picture together. All I have to do is just sort of stand there and guide it."

All three performers earned acting nominations for the Oscars.

"Million Dollar Baby" emerged as a last-minute awards contender. Eastwood did not begin shooting the film until early last summer, and distributor Warner Bros. had expected it would not be ready for release until 2005.

When Eastwood showed a cut of the film last fall, studio executives loved it and went into overdrive to get it ready for December release to qualify for the Oscars.

The Directors Guilds award is one of Hollywood's most accurate forecasts for the Oscars. Only six times in the 56-year history of the guild honors has the winner failed to go on to receive the directing Oscar

Even with Eastwood winning, I can't see the Academy not giving it to Scorsese. I mean, he's been overlooked 4 other times for Director and 2 for writing. Plus, it's not like people consider the movie undeserving, like GONY (Which I thought was good, actually). I know there is a trend going, but I guess it's about time it's broken? Scorsese's still my pick.

DUH.

I forgot about this for a while.

I think Million Dollar Baby jumps to the frontrunner status in the best picture race, especially if it also does well at SAG, but I still expect Scrocese to win the Oscar. But Golden Globe and DGA, that gives EAstwood a pretty legitimate shot.

It's funny how MDB is becoming stronger as more awards come out. Since a month ago, Eastwood and Swank, especially, and maybe the MDB picture have vastly strenghten their position. I don't how Freeman was thought of a month ago.

"Before the winner was announced, Scorsese was the only one of the five nominated directors to receive a standing ovation when he was called onstage to accept his nomination plaque."
And after that they hand out the award to Eastwood? The DGA is a strange group of people :???: