Daniel Kenealy predicts Letters for BP and BD.

http://www.oscarwatch.com/2007/01/acade ... .html#more

He's very right in one thing, Letters nod makes a great Oscar-race.

"I was sitting musing on Monday evening that "Letters From Iwo Jima" would bring a real X Factor to Oscar night and that the industry would embrace it because of that X Factor. It combines Steven Spielberg and Clint Eastwood. It is a genre that voters love but it has a twist. It is a subtle, beautiful piece of moviemaking from a undisputed legend. I wrote a mail to Sasha Stone (the real Queen of the Oscar season in my humble opinion) saying that if I had guts I would predict "Letters From Iwo Jima" for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay nominations. But that could not matter less now. What I also wrote in that last minute mail to Sasha was that Clint and his moving, challenging war drama would bring an X Factor to Oscar night. Lord knows, that's the truth." Yeah, go Clint!

Like I said earlier, Iwo Jima will not win Best Picture because it didn't get nominated for editing. Same goes for Sunshine and Queen.

It's a good reason, but we have reasons against every movie. In a year like this - these are not as sure as before. Last year Crash hasn't got a GG nom, but managed to win. Letters will not win a single thing until the Oscar night, so if it could enter to the top 5 without any guild support, why not win? If we see only racional reasons, it's a Babel-Departed battle, but this year's race is special, every usual base might fall, that's why we might see a foreign language movie winning the BP award. But your point is against Letters is valid, that's the nice thing about this year.

That is friggin hilarious. Funny, but perhaps it is true.

I can see this winning three Oscars. I don't think anyone will dare not give Marty the win this year, but like I said, with the predigree present in IWO, it could sway voters to reward it.

JN had a perfect answer to that:

"I just talked to Clint Eastwood, and he said that if he wins another Oscar this year, he will finally have enough to complete his Oscar soccer player football table.
He's cordinally invited Marty over for a game. First to 10. Best out of three."

I could live with an Iwo Jima win. I haven't seen the movie yet, but it does look fairly epic, and a lot of people are calling it a masterpiece... it would be a suitable addition to the 00s BP winners. If only its gross wasn't so low though.

I'd sure as hell take this over Babel.

Seeing as Letters from Iwo Jima is my favorite film of last year, I'd be beyond thrilled by a Best Picture win, so I'm with this thread in spirit... but I can't officially join. The brilliant Babel is winning Best Picture.

im in

If Little Man or Basic Instinct 2 won best picture, I be thrilled, as long as it is not Babel.

What do you think, Box Office may have an effect? Departed and LMS did really well, The Queen is lock for 50m+, Babel and Letters has yet to shine, although Letters hasn't gone wide.

Well, my final vote is Letters. I think LMS will win, but I'm loyal to my first chioce and I still think that Leters has a shot. The members should have watched this movie, if they did so, Letters could win. Do not call me crazy, because I was one of those few, who predicted Crash last year.

Well I have it ahead of The Queen.

Letters is a rare rare situation where it wasn't nominated for any guilds(because people hadn't seen it yet?), so in reality it hasn't lost anything. Is it possible Letters is a masterpiece and now that the voters have seen the film, they mark it down? Maybe. I don't know. Letters is one of the rare nominees where they hasn't been an oppurtunity to get any grip or grasp on how the voters are feeling about it. Little Miss Sunshine/Departed/Babel are still in front obviously, but I'd say Letters has about a 5% chance of pulling an insane upset.

I predicted Crash last year, and I'm proud to stand behind Letters. It doesn't need all the support from AMPAS, this will be a tight race, so 25-30% of the voters can be enough. It has the important message, and when the voters think for a second they'll not hesitate to put Letters ahead of Babel. Either way, I'll be glad if LMS or Departed wins (Queen is out IMO), just please forget Babel, I just can't wake up next morning if it wins BP!!! Ryan was robbed and it's been a long time since a war movie won BP, and it has the right political message, Departed and LMS, well they're simply two amazing movies, but not important ones.