I see no upset in the Best Supporting Actress category, but still I don't predict Murphy to win Best Sup. Actor. It just seems so...off. Especially with the lack of general support Dreamgirls got from the Academy. Wahlberg is very good, but I don't see him taking it either with the role reminding me a lot of William Hurt in A History of Violence. It will be down to Earle and Arkin. Earle grabbed many many critics awards while Arkin reminds likely because of the general LMS love.

See, Adriana Barraza can't be Marcia Gay Harden. Kate Hudson's problem was probably that she split votes with Frances McDormand. Jennifer Hudson doesn't have that problem. If anyone has that problem, it's Barraza, who will split votes with Rinko.

I see Jennifer Hudson as virtually completely locked. There's just no viable alternative. Cate Blanchett, the only other person who made a big enough splash in certain other groups, just won an Oscar in this same category 2 years ago. She's not winning again. The Babel ladies will split their votes, and Abigail is obviously handicapped from simply being so young and new (even moreso than Hudson).

I also really hope Hudson wins. She's just been such a great sport, making fun of herself on talk shows, and being all around humble and deserving, in my opinion.

I don't however believe Best Supporting Actor is locked. Murphy is certainly in the lead, but I could easily see Murphy not winning too. With the lack of Dreamgirls support from the Academy compared to other groups, they may not be as eager to give both supporting categories to Dreamgirls.

Peace,
Mike.

I'm going with Arkin and Hudson.

My 97% final predictions:

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
1. Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
2. Alan Arkin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
3. Mark Wahlberg in “The Departed” (Warner Bros
4. Jackie Earle Haley in “Little Children” (New Line)
5. Djimon Hounsou in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)

Like everyone else, I'm getting a shaky vibe from Murphy winning. And I could see just about anyone (Except Hounsou) upsetting him. Haley has the ultimate comeback story, though people might not be able to bring themselves to vote for a pedophile character. Wahlberg is a true supporting turn as one of the biggest scene-stealers of last year, and is the only nominated actor from a much-acclaimed ensemble. Still, he's Marky Mark, possibly as much a stigma as Murphy's career. And of course there's Arkin, the lovable, scene-stealing veteran with his first nom in 38 year - tying Jack Palance (City Slickers) and going right behind Henry Fonda (On Golden Pond) for the longest break between noms. Good company. But I'm already predicting an upset in another acting category, and I doubt the Academy will have two acting upsets. Murphy it is!

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
1. Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
2. Abigail Breslin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
3. Rinko Kikuchi in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
4. Adriana Barraza in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
5. Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)

Hudson-haters have been trying their damnedest to convince people that Hudson isn't as strong as people think, and that enough people will realize it's nothing more than singing. The problem is, nobody can agree on a spoiler. Barraza had the most demanding and heartbreaking role! Blanchett is the only other previous nominee and the most experienced! Breslin is cute, in a Best Picture nominee, and they love to award little kids! Kikuchi plays a person with a handicap, and the voters LOVE that! Yet in the end, Hudson remains the big acting sotry of the year, rising from American Idol reject to debuting in the role of a lifetime, and a snub for her would be a pretty big slap in the face to such a sweet, talented woman. She's locked, baby.

There's such a wide gap between Bad News Bears and Little Children... I'm not sure Jackie Earle Hayley even registers as a major comeback in the eyes of most people. At least not the way John Travolta did in '94 with Pulp Fiction.

Again, no real qualms here with a Hudson win (well, none that haven't already been voiced), but I'm still rooting for Barraza, who I think gave the best supporting female performance of last year.

I'd love to see someone upset Eddie Murphy, but if that person is Alan Arkin, then... not so much. It's going to be Murphy, and I'm fine with that. My personal pick: Haley.

As I've said, ideally it would be Rinko & Jackie.... but JenHud and Eddie have this.

I'm definately rooting for Wahlberg.

I should mention I'm no longer sure Eddie Murphy will win. I'm still predicting him, but an Alan Arkin win would not shock me (and could indicate LMS strength). I think Norbit might have done some damage. Too bad the most deserving winner (Jackie Earle Haley) has no chance.

WEll, Libs, you called it beautifully. Arkin!!

As I said : )