I just watched that last night. True Lies was so corny and dumb, Jamie Lee Curtis was the only performance in that movie worth watching

Actually at this moment, the lineup looks like Babel/Departed/Dreamgirls/Little Miss Sunshine/Queen. DGA will bring Letters back, but without knowing it yet, these are the five.

True dat.

Now we have to wait until TUESDAY for the ^#&*ing DGA.

Another blow to United 93, and look like it is indeed going to go guildless. I can't recall another film that receives such different treatment between critics and Hollywood.

Yeah, it's not about LMS, but Letters, which we all assume will show up there, but that actually needs to happen since it has missed the first two guilds.

Ensemble was a possibility, however small. Just like Letters and The Queen, it's not expected, but would've helped if it did.

Sheen is too much an outsider, I think. Still has a chance, but the category is very crowded; can he get enough No. 1 votes?

Still, Leo was nominated for all three awards, even if it was in a different category. I think he has enough friends within the SAG to give it to him. Murhpy is a good comeback story, but I don't see them handing him the award.

Right now we're looking at Babel being this year's Crash (except it won't win), The Queen = this year's Capote, and Letters = this year's Munich (ignored by all guilds except for DGA, but DGA happens to be the most accurate predictor for BP).

Making Dreamgirls or LMS this year's Walk the Line?

Letters is not this year's Munich. Its not even this year's Kong...

Looks like the switch for DiCaprio to Supporting actually worked. The whole reason the studio did it was to make sure Leo could get in for both performances. Now he's double nominated. Also, while we thought this may screw up the SAGS, I don't think it will screw up the Oscars. Keisha Castle-Hughes was nominated for supporting at the SAGS and went on to be nominated for lead at the Oscars. The Globes and BFCA as lead for him fight against the confusion.

And one last thing about Leo: funnily enough I think he has a REALLY good chance of winning Best Supporting Actor at the SAGs now, a category that was decidedly weak with no person grabbing a "frontrunner" status like the rest of the acting categories. With 2 nominations ending up, the SAGS clearly admire DiCaprio this year, and since I don't see them giving him a win for Blood Diamond in lead, they will give him the win for The Departed in Supporting Actor. With him in the Best Actor category for The Departed, I never saw him winning. But now I can. This may boost his chances.

The Queen really got the short end of the stick here. It missed out on both Sheen and Ensemble, and has just Mirren to represent it.

Babel once again still has everything. 8 Golden Globe noms (Picture, Director and Screenplay), 7 BFCA noms (Picture and Screenplay), PGA nod and SAG Ensemble. If it grabs DGA also, like I think it will, The Departed and Babel will be the only two films that were present across the board in essentially all the important stuff.

Peace,
Mike.

Between the two, I have to say LMS, but I think the comparison pretty much stops after those three. If Crash had to face Dreamgirls and The Departed, it would have had no chance of winning.

I just can't see Eastwood missing the DGA, that's why I still consider Letters in the race, although I would love to say that it's out. I mean, Eastwood missing the DGA would be a HUGE snub. I just can't see it happening. Everyone goes ga-ga over Eastwood; he'll make it on name alone.

Peace,
Mike.

There is one difference between Leo and other past nominees who have experienced category confusion (Hughes, Del Toro, Connelly, etc.), Leo has another strong performance in the opposite category and thus risks a possibility of vote-splitting, not just between lead and supporting, but between Blood Diamond and The Departed. I still think when all said and done, a lot more people will put his The Departed performance No. 1 in Best Actor than both 1) The Departed No. 1 in Best Supporting Actor and 2) Blood Diamond No. 1 in Best Actor and ensure his correct nomination, but WB is certainly not doing him any favor.

Yeah, at least someone sees eye-to-eye with me on this one. It neither has the critical approval and massive guild love that other movies have had, nor has it gotten an ounce of popular support (Kong had enough ppular support and buzz). It has nothing going for it, and the back-to-back Letters and Flags has actually made almost everyone overdose on Clint. Serious backlash is the consequence...even from someone like me. Letters gets zilch either as far as big awards or big b.o. numbers. End of discussion.

If not for DGA's amazing run the last 4 years (it's 20 for 20 when come to match BP, even better than matching BD), Letters will be knocked down a spot or two. It's still the weakest link, but the competition isn't strong either, pretty much just down to LMS in fact. I still think the preferential/passion system will work in its favor, just as it did with Munich.

What happens if Greengrass gets a DGA nom? Some suspect he will. I'm not looking for whether you think he will get a nom, but if he somehow does...

Peace,
Mike.

Yep, and that's why I should say United 93 is still on the radar, but I'm predicting it will go guildless. But if both Greengrass and Eastwood make it, the key is who will miss. If Frears misses, combining with less-than-stellar showing at SAG, will that make The Queen the most vulnerable? If Condon misses, will then The Dreamgirls take a serious blow? Or will DGA finally crack and only match 3/5 with BP this time? Ah, fascinating stuff.

So true. It's possible that even with whatever happens, the DGA may have an "off" year after 4 perfect years in a row.

Peace,
Mike.

A bit of a slip for Departed overall eh? It's not this all dominant force, Dreamgirls is coming back strong with a win possibility, Babel is still in there too.

Scarlett Johansson 2003: 2006 Male Edition

That Bobby nomination is obviously the product of its massive cast. Had everyone in SAG actually seen the film, they might have realized that the acting is nothing special, at all.

Oh, and...

I don't know. It just seems like if there's one film that's remained steady throughout all of this while simultaneously flying under the radar, it's been...

The Queen.

Is it suddenly on tenuous ground, as far as a BP nom goes?

Bobby has grossed about $11M in this country. At least Chocolat was a hit (and fresh on RT, though barely).

I doubt it.

And the Weinsteins don't have the pull they used to, either.