I think Dreamworks is going to operate in a similar way to companies like New Line and Pixar. Meaning, they'll keep their branding on the films they produce, but they'll be under the bigger umbrella of Paramount.

Regarding Iwo Jima being distributed by Warners, my guess is the co-production between Warners and Dreamworks was set up before Dreamworks' sale to Paramount last December. No doubt, one of the stipulations was probably that Warners got domestic distribution of one of the films - namely Iwo.

As Poland said, with Warners bringing it into the game late, it doesn't bode well for The Good German and The Blood Diamond.

Another thing about Iwo Jima... does Watanabe or any of the other actors have potential? I'm not certain Flags has a great shot at a SAG nomination (The Departed, Sunshine, Queen, Dreamgirls and Babel seem stronger there).

I am happy to see Iwo Jima being screened to praise though.


Well, in my eyes... the only thing saving Flags at this point (and Iwo Jima) is that it is a co-production between two majors (similar to Master & Commander, etc.). If Flags had been a straight Warner Bros film, The Departed would have already buried it the same way it's pretty much buried German and Blood Diamond.

Blood Diamond should help Leo secure his Actor nom though.

Just IMO.

United 93 and Little Miss Sunshine

Maybe they'll make a big comeback, but I think Babel and FOOF were both considered dissapointments, and not really big enough to get in. Maybe it's just from too narrow of a perspective, but it seems like they both stumbled out of the gate, although they do also have some of the passionate votes. Letters from Iwa Jima is going to have to really shine, and I think it could also get hurt from some split votes. That Dec. 30th release date isn't going to get it front and center that quickly. But yeah, I do agree it's a bad sign for The Good German and Blood Diamond. I think if WB reallly thought German was going to get a BP nomination they wouldn't have had the usual action/drama music and structure in the trailer, and Blood Diamond... C'mon, it's Ed Zwick we're talking about here.

I heard Flags of our Fathers was being distributed by Paramount in the US in a BOM article...

I agree.

FOOF (I love saying that in my head, foof) in my opinion lost any chances of big nominations its first week of release. I don't see it going anywhere.

And I agree with Babel, too. I think it could score a Globe nom, but the film, like FOOF, would've needed high RT scores to really take it anywhere past that, and its reviews are only okay for a film of its caliber (a good 71% overall, but a near-rotten 60% COTC).

I sooo hope Little Miss Sunshine can get a Best Picture nomination, it would very much deserve it

As would United 93

...and The Departed

...and probably Dreamgirls and The Queen, although I haven't seen them

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93

I need rationale for Babel nods.

At this point, me too

Weaker than expected reviews
Tepid box office
Etc

I have no idea. I just don't see Little Miss Sunshine getting in, and that would leave something like The Pursuit of Happyness, The Good Shepard, or The Good German.

Yeah, I guess Babel might not get in.

Little Miss Sunshine and United 93 are the best bets at this point and both would be completely deserving.

Don't know why everyone is disregarding Notes on a Scandal so quickly. It's a Dench and Blanchett film that hasn't been released yet... If it gets good reviews, with the weak competition, I don't see why it wouldn't be right up there, unless I'm missing something.

It's Fox Searchlight, Little Miss Sunshine is Fox Searchlight. LMS is more likely.

For Notes to get in, it needs nothing but raves and ALOT of critic support. It wont have the BO, doesnt have the buzz, really has nothing much going for it. I guess the one real thing it has going for it right now is Dench who could easily get a nod even if the reviews arent very spectacular.

Just came from The Queen and I absolutely loved it. I thought it was really great.

I think the overflowing amount of positive reviews makes us take a Best Pic nom for granted though. Were this a stronger year, I think it wouldn't be such a solid lock as everyone seems to think it is.

A really good comparison would be Vera Drake, except The Queen has received alot more press and buzz and has grew and taken in an impressive sum thus far. But, I sort of got that same feel. Small, political film dealing with personal choices and decisions, British, small simple yet powerful, and of course an extraordinary leading lady.

I think Babel is definitely outside the short 5 right now but is still in the running. It could pull a nod like Crash pulled a win.

Yup. Plus early word is that it gets steadily more melodramatic and silly as it goes along. If House of Sand and Fog couldn't get a BP nod I don't see how this could.

Little Miss Sunshine will NOT get a Best Picture nomination whatsoever, under any circumstances. See my words? Mark 'em. I'll either be totally right all along as I've been maintaining forever and ever, or I'll eat major crow come nomination time.

When critics awards and critics lists start coming out, there are films that are more critically acclaimed and have more passion behind them than Little Miss Sunshine. Not to mention the quirky, lighthearted feel of it (which puts it at an immediate disadvantage even if lovers of the film want to tout that it was "heavier" than we say).

I just don't see it happening. Nothing really points to it (except that people here believe it is worthy of a nomination), I think there are things that point against it, and it doesn't feel like a Best Picture nominee. That's my 3-tier determination system for ya.

*Prepares to eat lots of crow pie*

PEACE, Mike.

I dunno... re: Babel and Crash comparisons... when people say "Crash" these days, what I think about is a divisive film with a hardcore audience that will fight for it. I could be wrong, but I don't think anybody seems too overly passionate about any film as much as people were passionate about Crash/Brokeback last year.

Not only have I not been going to movies as much this year/oscar season, but I've been quite lazy in posting up grades or my usual semi-reviews/thoughts.

Let me see if I can compile something for you

Overall, nothing has really grabbed me or impressed me this year. The closest was The Departed. Most of my list is filled with A-'s.

I guess, were I to make a list now... my top 10 would be comprised of...

The Departed (A)
Volver (a-)
The Queen (A-)
Little Miss Sunshine (A-)
United 93 (A-)
Thank You for Smoking (A-)
Little Children (A-)
Devil Wears Prada (A-)
V for Vendetta (A-)
Half Nelson (B+/A-)

Some other filsm I've seen...

Babel (B+)
Mari Antionette (B-)
Last King of Scotland (B-)
Hollywoodland (B-)

There are still soooo many I want/plan to see.

I still think Little Miss Sunshine is far too... light, dysfunctional family. When was the last time the academy nominated a comedy without a heavy heart, The Full Monty if it counts? And LMS has great reviews, but nobody is calling it one of the best of the decade like Sideways and Lost In Translation. I don't buy it yet, but that's just me.

I have serious doubts of LMS getting in, would be quite an accomplishment if it does.

It also has fantastic box office. It will be nominated in multiple places, has a strong ensemble. It will clean up at award shows like the Independent Spirit Awards, where it likely already has won.

Of the potential nominees, it actually has a lot going for it.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but it has one of the better cases of the non-top-3-films. Notes on a Scandal doesn't really have that yet.

Oh and Good German?

All style, no substance. Gets closer to release and the buzz is still as quiet as it was months ago. That trailer gave me such a cold and empty vibe.

How different one year makes. If it hadn't been because Capote's success last year, I wouldn't have considered The Queen a lock, just as Capote itself was fighting to get noticed and wasn't considered anywhere near a lock at this point of the season. However, with Capote's precedence, and with The Queen beating it every measure from reviews to box office, it leaps to that status this early on.

Yeah, I don't think the Crash/Babel comparison holds a lot of weight in regards to the Oscars this year. The reason Crash proved such a phenomenon were its prominent themes of race. Babel, it seems, isn't eliciting a lot of that sort of discussion.