This is how it always is. Whenever someone calls you on something you try to compare and show that you're obviously "better", but the difference is that right now I am not pinning down anything as a lokc while you are. Back at the same point last year I pinned down Geisha as a lock and you WTL both turned out to be wrong. I learned my lesson and not calling anything a lock in early September. You are. It is not about comparisons between me and you it is about you and just you.

The difference being, I went with concrete evidence supporting WTL, you had nothing supporting Jarhead, Munich (the foregone "lock" to win it all) and Geisha. You made those predictions when nobody had seen a frame of film, I'm not doing that. That's why Flags isn't a lock. (yet) WTL was a snub. It was even the first thing the hosts of E! mentioned as soon as nominations were announced. It still won a Golden Globe, so it's not like my WTL and your picks are THAT similar.

If I'm wrong about Bobby (and knowing my country like I do, I won't be), you can tell me you told me so all you want to.

I will continue updating my signature and standing by my selections, and you're welcome to agree, argue against it, or be confused on your position. Part of the fun is making the call early. I encourage you to be bold, too, and not cower in the corner because of fear of being wrong. Who gives a shit if you end up being wrong?

It is not about being right or wrong. You said you had concrete evidence you say that I didn't. What did it matter in the end? Nada. Both were not nominated for BP or BD.

Making calls early on acting noms is fine, but on BP it is rather pointless as far as calling a film a lock goes.

Emilio Estevez's Bobby "is bound to get mixed reactions from critics, especially those not attuned to the times and attitudes it depicts," says a voice from Los Angeles. "Estevez is aping Grand Hoteland every other multi-story ensemble pic right up to last year's Crash. Taken as a whole It's admirable and, I feel, necessary." I get what he's saying. The under-40s who aren't especially liberal or political-minded aren't likely to respond like boomers who were "there" in one way or another.

Flags is this years Munich in the way that even if Flags doesnt end up getting overwhelmingly positive word, it'll still get that 4th or 5th spot pretty easily.

Post screening reactions:

1) I don't use the words sure thing this early, but honestly, I'd be stunned if Helen Mirren doesn't win, and possibly dominates the awards up to the Oscars similar to P.S. Hoffman last year. She is good, to be sure, but combined with her accumulated good will in her career, the close rendering of such a well known public figure, her presence in LA - all just make it hard to think another actress is going to challenge her. She is at her best, like Jack Nicholson is in The Departed, in several throwaway lines of dialogue that both amuse and amaze in their impact.

2) The film is solid, hardly great, but has a number of qualities that combine to make it terrific Oscar bait. The tide could shift, my opinion could vary, but my sense is that of what I've seen, this is the most likely best picture nominee (ahead of other viable candidates like The Departed, Babel, Volver and lesser ones like Little Children, United 93, World Trade Center off the top of my head.

3) Original screenplay is another real possibility for a win. Best director nomination also quite possible, although I doubt a win.

4) The range of supporting performances is terrific - the scene stealer (quite shameless but great fun) is Sylvia Syms as the Queen Mum. Not sure it's large enough a role for a nomination, but she squeezes everything she can out of what she has.

5) Finally - and boy do we have a lot more to see - it is not implausible, seeing the reviews so far, that if this becomes a breakout specialized film - more than Crash, Brokeback level leading up to the Oscars - that this could seriously compete for a best picture win. I am NOT predicting it as a winner - but I can see it happening under the right set of circumstances. This is a film the older Academy members are going to eat up. They often don't vote for their favorites, but what they are expected to choose. Last year they changed course. Maybe they'll go the same way this year.

Yea, I agree. Honestly unless it's a mega mega masterpiece, I don't think there's much way Flags can win, to be honest. With the Eastwood thing, and the fact that it will be measured up to SPR, I think that Easthaggisberg will probably happily settle for a solid BP/BD nomination, while The Departed, Dreamgirls, and possibly Babel are the ones duking it out for glory.