People knew Million Dollar Baby was going to be made at this point I think, but if I'm not mistaken we had only had the poster, which I think failed to make people think it was going to be more Mystic River then say Blood Work.

No films come to mind right now that have already been released that I think will get a BA nomination. I think Forrest Whitaker and Peter O'Toole both seem to have the best chances from what word is right now. Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Clive Owen, George Clooney, Will Smith, and to a much lesser extent Russell Crowe are all also very much in the running, but it's completley up to how their films do right now. If one of the films stumbles, I doubt that they'll get the only nomination for it. Also a contender for a nomination is Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls, word is that he's absolutely amazing in it, although the performance may be counted as Supporting Actor.

I'd love for Derek Luke to get a nomination, but I'm not sold on it yet. Then again, I doubt Tim Robbins will get another nomination so soon after Mystic River so if the film gets Hotel Rwanda level acclaim it's very possible. Leonardo DiCaprio is a possibility for The Departed (The Blood Diamond doesn't sound that promising to me with Zwick directing), but he'll have to be able to not get upstaged by Nicholson. I don't see that happening but then again, if he did manage to measure up to him I think he'd suddenly shoot up to lock position.

I remember very well that NO ONE considered Million Dollar Baby at this very point.

What if the Best Actor nominations were:

Derek Luke - Catch a Fire
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Jamie Foxx - Dreamgirls
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Children of Men (okay maybe he is supporting...then replace with Don Cheadle in Reign Over Me where Paramount decided to limited release it in December instead of waiting for the spring)

That would be an awesome slate...

Here goes.......

1. Forrest Whittaker - The Last King Of Scotland
2. Ed Harris - Copying Beethoven
3. Matt Damon - The Good Shepherd
4 Derek Luke - Catch A Fire
5. Russell Crowe - A Good Year

This seems like a really murky race. I think The Pursuit Of Happyness looked horrible, so I can't include Will Smith. Jamie Foxx and George Clooney have been well-rewarded recently so that seems a little too soon unless they're just fantastic. I didn't want to include Crowe really, but oh well. Pitt seems more likely as supporting for Babel, much like Clooney was last year in Syriana.

I would be really happy if Harris finally won. And I've been very impressed with Luke in Antwon Fisher, Friday Night Lights, and even Pieces Of April.

the same people who kept putting afflecks name with best supporting actor, are now putting ryan phillippes name with best actor, for flags of our fathers.............

And who are those people?

Both Emanuel Levy and Variety raved Peter O'Toole in Venus:

Levy




Variety:

Currently:

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Ed Harris, Copying Beethoven
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Derek Luke, Catch a Fire

There is absolutely no way of knowing much of anything yet. The Actor race seems a lot less clear than Actress so far.

You know, it's a shame that "color" even has to be a consideration when predicting this stuff. Between Will Smith's ability and popularity, and the trailers that I saw today for Last King of Scotland and Catch a Fire, where the performances from Whitaker and Luke look to be of the "blow you away" variety, I really see no reason (that isn't color related) that all 3 of them couldn't get into the final 5. If the performance merits it, why not!

You really think race is a consideration? I would hope that the Academy looks past that sort of thing...I know it doesn't factor at all when I make predictions.


At this point, until we get more reviews, I think O'Toole is the only lock for a nomination. I think he might win this.

Indeed. I wasn't here, but I read a couple old threads in my spare time once a while ago, just for fun at like 3 AM to see what you guys were saying, and it was nowhere. Everyone had lists of all the contenders naming them off, and noone knew it existed really, for example it wasn't even in Raffiki's top 15. It wasn't mentioned till late in the game, I believe it was xiayun you actually pointed out that Clint Eastwood had a movie coming out called Million Dollar Baby and it was picking up steam, heh.

Yeah, that was sometime later, when I read about Poland's article on how the whole race changed after the first screening of MDB.

Rod was the first who mentioned M$B as a contender after some article.

I've been reading a bit of praise for Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson. It'd be nice to have a canadian nominated I hope to be seeing Half Nelson today.

Jeff Wells jumps on board the O'Toole train:



I am so excited. He'll be tough to ignore. Do the right thing, AMPAS.

How about Guy Pierce for Factory Girl? I hadn't heard much about this before, but any half-biopic involving someone this famous can't be counted out, and he's a decent actor on top of that. Also, I would imagine Andy Warhol's personality being very much award bait, with the eccentricity and wackiness and all. Probably solid chance for a nomination if he delivers.

MGM has just bought the rights to Rescue Dawn and are planning for a December release.

So Bale's got Prestige in October, Harsh Times in November, and Rescue Dawn in December.

I will be rooting for O'Toole big time. It is just a shame he wasn't awarded yet and if he gets nominated, but the Academy doesn#t give it to him once again, then shame on all the members!

He better be considerably better in one then the other two or else they should handily cancel each other out.

But my understanding is that Rescue Dawn isn't....very good. And as god-like as Herzog can be, he can also make poo-poo. Like any genius, really.

Lots of poor word is leaking out on the internet.

Peter O'Toole's 6 major losses (His 1969 nomination for the musical remake of Goodbye Mr. Chips wasn't really deserving...these other 6 performances are award-worthy, however):

1962:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
To Kill a Mockingbird (1962) - Gregory Peck
Birdman of Alcatraz (1962) - Burt Lancaster
Days of Wine and Roses (1962) - Jack Lemmon
Divorzio all'italiana (1961) - Marcello Mastroianni
Lawrence of Arabia (1962) - Peter O'Toole

1964:
My Fair Lady (1964) - Rex Harrison
Alexis Zorbas (1964) - Anthony Quinn
Becket (1964) - Richard Burton
Becket (1964) - Peter O'Toole
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) - Peter Sellers

1968:
Charly (1968) - Cliff Robertson ---------GAHHHHHHHH
Fixer, The (1968) - Alan Bates
Heart Is a Lonely Hunter, The (1968) - Alan Arkin
Lion in Winter, The (1968) - Peter O'Toole
Oliver! (1968) - Ron Moody

1972:
Godfather, The (1972) - Marlon Brando
Ruling Class, The (1972) - Peter O'Toole
Sleuth (1972) - Michael Caine
Sleuth (1972) - Laurence Olivier
Sounder (1972) - Paul Winfield

1980:
Raging Bull (1980) - Robert De Niro
Elephant Man, The (1980) - John Hurt
Great Santini, The (1979) - Robert Duvall
Stunt Man, The (1980) - Peter O'Toole
Tribute (1980) - Jack Lemmon

1982:
Gandhi (1982) - Ben Kingsley
Missing (1982) - Jack Lemmon
My Favorite Year (1982) - Peter O'Toole
Tootsie (1982) - Dustin Hoffman
Verdict, The (1982) - Paul Newman


Unfortunately for him, he ran directly into legendary, iconic performances like DeNiro's and Brando's.

Hm, well, Kingsley's and De Niro's wins certainly were deserving. But, really, he had the misfortune of being nominated next to win-locks pretty often like Peck, Kingsley, Brando and De Niro. 1964 and 1968 were his best chances.

I thought his work in the Kingsley and Peck years was actually superior to etither of those guys. Losing to Harrison and fucking Cliff Robertson, though, is pretty inexcusable, from any perspective.

Could Sacha Baron Cohen really be a contender? Poland is pushing it, but I wonder if critics will.

I'm interested to see if Richard Gere in The Hoax grabs any attention.