Best Picture
I'd like to see Brokeback Mountain win....the rest seem kind of expendable (at least in an awards show way).

Best Director
I really don't want to see Spielberg win, and by the looks of it, I won't have to. He's been awarded for better work in the past. It's a shame that Cronenberg was overlooked, but Ang Lee is clearly a deserving winner.

Best Actor
All five nominees are fabulous, so I would be happy to see any of them win. If I had to choose one though, I'd go with Terrence Howard. It was such an intense and complete performance from his part.

Best Actress
I really wouldn't mind seeing Reese take it, but I'm still pulling for Huffman.

Best Supporting Actor
It would be nice to see Dillan take it, just because he's sort of representing the entire cast of Crash, but I'm rooting for Gyllenhaal.

Best Original Screenplay
I'd like to see Crash win here. I disagree with its naysayers when I say that I actually got something positive out of it

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback certainly isn't undeserving -- given that it's an adaptation of, like, an 11-page short story -- but A History of Violence deserves a consolation prize.

EDIT: double post

Don't want to see:

Joaquin Phoenix or Philip Seymour Hoffman win Best Actor

Capote getting any award, other than possibly best supporting actress (not my personal choice but wouldn't hate it)

Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Haggis, or Matt Dillon win Best Supporting Actor

Brokeback Mountain winning Cinematography (not thrilled about it winning other categories but won't hate it)

Paul Haggis won't win Supporting Actor, I promise you that!

whoops, meant Paul Giamatti for supporting actor, though I wouldn't like Haggis to win best director either although he's my 2nd choice by default out of the incredibly weak slate of directorial nominees this year.