Don't be so sure about the support.

I've always thought Munich would have this late-race boost. There were arguably believable excuses why it kept getting snubbed in other awards and such, but everyone in the Academy has had time to see it and absorb it.

I don't know why but it just screams "pianist." And they had reported that the Best Picture for that year was so close they joked Chicago won by a nose. Pianist took home 3 big ones that year and it was never the front-runner for any of them.

I think it's a huge possibility and have always thought so. What I'm liking now is this Crash surge because I'm hoping Crash and Munich votes will be split enough to give Brokeback the win.

Ironically on my best of 2005 list, Crash and Munich take #1 and #2 while Brokeback is at #3
I think alot of us, including me, were too quick to assume it was dead when it wasn't getting any mentions.

Munich will lose...

And if Crash wins... I predict a riot... everywhere... but mostly in my neighborhood... F U Crash...

Munich will earn zero awards and this thread was pointless.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... Lois... This isn't my Batman cup...

We never said anything about EARNING awards...

But The Pianist did get a Best Picture nomination at the Globes, something that is quite crucual. The last one to win Best Picture without a GG nom for Best Picture was The Sting, but that one won PGA, won the DGA was NBR's #1 Film of the year and received better reviews. Moreover it made $150+ million!

The Pianist dealt with Holocaust, which gives it a bonus and it was universally beloved, received incredible reviews and made it into IMDB's all-time Top 50.

I think it's safe to say we can't rely on precedent this year, for the most part.

I hope Munich takes the BP away from BBM. It's a much better film.

Nothing suggests Munich has that much support, even with all academy members having seen it. It's really being exaggerated. If it had, Bana or someone would have gotten an acting nom. It only have 5 nominations, 2 fewer than The Pianist. It's just not enough. I can't convince people how different this is from the Chicago/The Pianist year, but it really is.

There's still hope.

Odd. I actually think Dolly's gonna take it for Transamerica. Remember 8 Mile just took best song what, two or three years ago? Sounds funny, but we've had more hip-hop and rock wins in recent years than country, and with the oversight of anything in Walk the Line (because not original, but still), I think it's going to be Country's year to pick up the win.

I don't think Munich will win BP either even though I believe its the best film of the year. However it was only a few days ago that people were saying Munich did not have "wide" enough support for a BP nom yet somehow it managed four major nominations.Munich's five noms with little percursor attention tell me there is support for the film in AMPAS. Roman Polanski couldn't even enter the US to receive an award let alone campaign for The Pianist yet the film won three majors including BD on Oscar night. The Pianist won those awards because it had powerful support within AMPAS.

Im with you all the way loyal, even though when I make my predictions so I can win those 72 Dvds im not gonna vote for Munich

The only way I see this working out for Munich really is if alot of people arent willing to vote for Brokeback because of the subject matter and end up giving it to Munich. Not everone is sold on Munich but the people who really do like it probably would have it up there as their favorite film, thats what im feeling, unlike a movie like Crash, Capote, or GNAGL. So that is an advantage it has.

I've taken loyal's lead and scooped up one of those Munich adds for my avatar. Really, there's plenty to go around for the Munich faithful here at KJ .

Brokeback and Crash will split votes and Munich will slip through to win best picture. You'll see.

I liked the film... But I didn't love it. Such is the case with every BP nominee this year (Crash aside...).

Given my general apathy, I'd prefer to see Brokeback win, if only for the statement it'd make.

I am now convinced Munich will win best picture but lose best director,it will happen,i think munich got more first place vote in the nominations than any other film and less votes overall than WTL but because of the first place votes(which i think would be by a wide margin)it made it into the BP,BD race,and with the winners vote now Munich will have more first place votes from the same who voted it in,and BBM,crash and GNAGL will be splitting votes.
Munich wins.

Its to much of an ensemble peice to nominate any of the actors, Bana really doesn;t have that much more screen time then his teammamtes, he does have more backstory though, so while he's the lead the film doesn;t scream nominate me the way Capote or Good NIght and Good Luck. I don't think the lack of acting noms really shows a lack of support, also Ban anot out campaigning, no one is campagning for Munich. I haven;t seen Speilberg or Bana make the rounds like I have seen Clooney and Ledger and Hoffman.

Brokeback is the clear leader, but Munich is no Seabiscuit.



I'd hate for Broekeback to win and then for peopel to suggest its just to make a statement though, so part of that thinking bugs me. Vote for it because it a good film, others it takes soemthing away from the Victory

If BBM doesn't win, can you imagine the rioting and chaos that will break out in gay communities?! It's a horrifying thought!

If that happens I wouldnt say they're wrong, if this movie doesnt win it's because people just dont wanna see a movie about homosexual cowboys get a win, you think someone like the almighty Clint Eastwood is giving it to Brokeback? NO!!!!!! He's giving it to Munich because it's godly like he is not some movie about cowboys doing the naughty deed, well Munich is not exactly as godly as Eastwood but somewhere right there about 20 steps down, but still.

Don't get me wrong, it's not just because of the statement. Like I said, I like all of the nominees pretty much equally (Crash aside...). I don't necessarily prefer Brokeback to Munich, GNGL or Capote, but I'd certainly choose it over them for the message it sends out.

I like the message of Munich. Beware of hot chicks in hotel bars.

Gay bashing is bad or beware of hot chicks in hotel bars? Do I even have to answer that?

Actually... Loyal has a point.

Consider me on the fence.

I think it's about time for one or eight of you munich avatars (cuz that's all you are to me now...avatars.) to change your...avatars. :o

No, wee need to make a Munich cult, LONG LIVE MUNICH AVATARS!!!!!!!!!!