Reese is the biggest lock, even more so than March of the Penguins for documentary, because there is no place for her momentum to stop. She will win GG, even if Walk the Line loses, and she will win SAG.

I also think Reese is the prime candidate for our "olive branch of the year" an award which will appease the mainstream audience while they go on and give Brokeback/Capote/etc. etc. etc. mucho awards.

SHE is going to be the one that CNN, et. all want publicity photos and interviews with the next day.

Her performance really is way above the rest. There is no indication at all of anybody stepping up to give her any kind of fight.

Conservative...politically, I'm assuming?

Eh, I don't care, she's entitled.

By Conservative, he may also been that she's a goddamn SHARK when it comes to business matters and such and such. Or so I've read/heard.

Hollywood is cutthroat.

None of this information surprises me.

Reese not winning would be the biggest shock at the Oscars for me this year, more so than Brokeback, Hoffman, etc. not winning. I just cannot imagine any of the other contenders overtaking her, they're just too weak and completely lacking in momentum in comparison. The only one who will gain any sort of traction is Felicity Huffman who may very well win an acting award for both Transamerica & Desperate Housewives at the Golden Globes. But unless Transamerica turns into a $100 mill smash it isn't going to change anything.

Reese is no Julia Roberts when it comes to industry standing, yet the lack of viable competition has turned her into a Julia-sized lock.

She cannot, cannot lose.

I'd be ok with her losing to Keira...they're both worthy. But yeah, I don't think she can really lose right now.

In a non-sequitir, I think I'm the only one here who is not too sure of Felicity Huffman's performance (she seemed to be trying too hard to come off as a post-op)

And most likely I'm the only one in my area who has seen Transamerica.

I'd say Reese is as much of a lock as Hilary Swank was last year. Unstoppable, and has been since the film debuted in Toronto. She has never let go of her frontrunner status since, and has only distanced herself from the pack, with more distancing on the way very soon.

Yeah, Reese losing would be the only thing to shock me this year. The Supporting Actress category is probably going to be a bit open to interpretation. Giamatti's pushing hard in Best Supporting Actor but it's not a lock. If the academy goes nuts for Brokeback it is possible that Ledger could take Actor still. Director... Ang Lee is powerful but I haven't let go of Clooney yet... he's got a lot of friends in Hollywood and I actually think Crash could fight Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture.

But yeah... Reese losing is like... to whom? And why?

loyal, are you STILL doubting Witherspoon?

I think I completely agree with this.

There was still some chance of Annette Bennign winning last year, actually quite a sizeable chance, even though Swank was the front-runner and didn't let go since the movie premiered.

This year, Felicity Huffman has a small chance to sneak up and win, but Reese is the front-runner by almost a landslide and I'd say moreso than Swank was last year.


Awwww Christian... you saw Transamerica? I've been planning to see it forEVER. I planned at least 3 times in the last week and a half and it never worked out. It's only playing at that one damn theatre on Sunset right?

yeah, pretty much. The GG meant nothing across the board, didn't we decide that last night?

Yeah, the one on Sunset, the gay-central theatre. Heh.

Fairly standard "buddy/bonding" movie. I thought Felicity was just okay mainly because I can see a lot of actors (male or female) capable of pulling the same type of performance.

No.

She has only gona up against FElicity Huffman once i think at BFCA.

I still think Huffman has a very strong chance of winning especially if enough people see the movie by the time voting on the winners ends. Just a few months ago no one really seemed to think sh'ed even be nominated

It's supposed to be the kind of performance that makes the film, and adds a depth to the character it otherwise wouldn't fact. Or I don't know...at this point it doesn't seem like the quality of her performance is in question by most. But she's a great actress overall and I think she has more respect among her peers than people imagine.

She's a lock unless Transamerica axpands to at least two hundred theatres asap.

That wouldn't help it.

Don't count out Felicity Huffman. Personally, I don't know who deserves it more. There's possibly (and probably) someone more deserving, but I think the race could be between the two.

Kilcher should be in the race. After seeing The New World, Reese's performance doesn't shine with the same lustre that it used to.

But yeah, Reese is a total lock.

joan allen in The Upside of Anger was just phenomenal. She is due no? And didn't she win some precursors?

I don't get the reese is a lock thing. but then again, i personally dont like her either.

Sadly, Kilcher's not even going to get the much deserved nomination. Bello is a wild card only because it has yet to be established if she's run under lead or supporting, but if she runs on lead, that could shuffle up the stack as well.

Roo? Why wouldn't an expansion this weekend have helped? I meant this weekend, plus continued unrolling of the carpet (en route to the red carpet) through the voting rounds, so that if Transamerica ultimately got up to 600 or 800 theatres?

So because she's a conservitive you dont like her?

A Transamerica expansion would have only cost the studio more money. The Academy has DVD screeners of Transamerica so if the people who want to vote for Huffman want to see the movie then they can pop it into their DVD player. There hasn't been overwhelming demand on the part of America to see Transamerica, so it would just be spinning wheels.

None of this is going to help Huffman win the Oscar. It's Witherspoon's. There is no other way to stress this, Witherspoon is the closest thing this next generation has to a bonofied Hollywood *star*. The critics have in large part thrown their support behind Reese. Etc. Huffman won the Golden Globe because *someone* had to win the Golden Globe for drama and there hasn't really been a lot of competition this year.

Plus, (in my opinion) she really deserves it. It's all the stars lining up in her favor.


Like I said... it would be a waste of time.