Crash was released early and its geting recognized, the April release is the least of it worries.

That said Sin City should be recognized for technical awards, but it won't.

No, not at all. Very few films from early releases get recognition. Crash is the exception, not the rule.

Does Walk the Line have that good of a chance in Ensemble??

I mean it's only Joaquin and Reese and you can throw in Patrick in there too.

It depends on if SAG voters are treating it as a best picture vote or actually voting for the films with best ensemble. As we discussed, last year they nominated the top 6 contenders even though not all of them felt like ensemble, while films like Eternal Sunshine and Kill Bill got left out.

I know that, you missed my point, Sin City's release date is the least of its problems on getting nominated, it could be released now and it would still have trouble getting nominated.

My current Guilds predictions (except WGA):

SAG:


Beat Actor:

Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)


Best Actress:

Maria Bello (A History of Violence) - Rememeber, they also nominated Connelly for BA in ABM!
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)


Best Supporting Actor:

George Clooney (Syriana)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)


Best Supporting Actress:

Gong Li (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Diane Keaton (The Family Stone)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)


Best Enesmble:

Crash
Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence


DGA:

Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Woody Allen (Match Point)
Peter Jackson (King Kong)
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)


PGA:

King Kong
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain
Munich

I think Family Stone can get a Best Ensemble nod at the SAGs, honestly.

Since its actors who are voting, and all the actors in the film appear to be well-liked within Hollywood, especially people like Diane Keaton.

I had it there when I wrote my post, but edited it to Good Night, and Good Luck then, simply because I could not see which of the other five I have up there I could throw away.

TFS might sneak in as the 6th nominee, like Hotel Rwanda last year.

Excellent predicts, Lecter.

We just have to remember, regarding SAG, that they have frustratingly maudlin tastes, always nominating dumb shit that has no place in the race. Think Cloris Leachman, actors from THE NOTEBOOK, Michele Pfeiffer in White Oleander....

Those possibilities include:
More actors from THE FAMILY STONE, especially Sarah Jessica Parker or Rachel McAdams (Honestly, if they annonced she was nominated for something even more ridiculous, like WEDDING CRASHERS or RED EYE, I still wouldn't be surprised)
Dakota Fanning in something
Johnny Depp in CHARLIE
Meryl Streep in PRIME
That little girl from NARNIA, whose name escapes me
Some PRODUCERS love
CRASH supporting actors! (I agree; its in for ensemble)

SAG will do something unexpected, even if its a nice surprise, like when The Station Agent got a bunch of noms in 2003.

I also wonder if MATCH POINT will have been seen enough. Fruthermore, they snubbed Johansson for LOST IN TRANSLATION. So I'm skeptical.

Hell, let me make my own ridiculous predictions, going entirely with gut instincts:
ACTOR
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, GGNAGL
Terrence Howard
(I'm going against my gut and Johnny Depp...remember, he WON for Pirates)

ACTRESS
Reese Witherspoon
Keira Knightley
Felicity Huffman
Judi Dench
Sarah Jessica Parker

SUPP ACTOR
Jake Gyllenhaal
Matt Dillon
Paul Giamatti
George Clooney (hmm...I suspect actors dont like Syriana...those I know sure don't....but I'll pick him anyway)
Donald Sutherland (Why not?)

SUPP ACTRESS
Shirley MacClaine
Michelle Williams
Anne Hathaway
Diane Keaton
Sandra Bullock

ENSEMBLE
Crash
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Walk The Line (But the movie often seems like a 2-person ensemble)
Pride and Prejudice (Because I can't see them going for Kong or anything as non-cuddly as History of Violence)

Those are probably way off-base.

I don't think Peter Jackson will get a DGA, but I think The PGA will shine upon it.

I suspect the DGA will going for the banal choice, AKA James Mangold.

Ok, here are my WGA and PGA predictions (both announce tomorrow!)

WGA

Original

Good night, and good luck
Match point
Crash
The squid and the whale
Wallace and Gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit (Crazy, I know)

Adapted

Munich
Brokeback mountain
Capote
A history of violence
The constant gardener

PGA

King Kong
Munich
Walk the line
Brokeback mountain
Crash

I think these three desperately need the SAG nomination to keep their chances:

- Joan Allen
- Diane Keaton
- Eric Bana

So before the announcements come...

IF... Good Night isn't nominated for PGA then there is no problem. PGA often skips the smaller movies. Although I expect Good Night to get one, it's pretty high profile. It's likely to get WGA, DGA and SAG ensemble so whatever.

IF... Kong isn't nominated for PGA it is basically dead. DGA could go either way with Jackson (I am leaning towards him getting a nomination there now) but if a picture like Kong can't get PGA then it's probably all over. WGA is also a maybe, but SAG is not expected at all. The only thing that would keep it on life support would be if the 5th choice would be too "out there" and no consensous behind Crash or whatever.

IF... Crash isn't nominated for PGA it will hurt it. Crash won't get DGA, but it will get SAG ensemble and WGA.

IF... Walk the line isn't nominated for PGA, is it still is alive? DGA is unlikely and SAG ensemble may elude it. It's not really as strong as other musical contendors in the past. Basically it has its Golden Globe future wins.

IF... anything "weird" is nominated at PGA or DGA (like Capote or Squid and the Whale or even A History of Violence), then it comes alive for BP chances unless it is docu or animated. WGA and SAG will bow down a little easier to smaller films. I fully expect Squid to get an ensemble nomination, but that same nomination didn't make The Station Agent a contendor.

My final predictions are... (I don't bother with WGA, I'm always wrong).

PGA
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Munich

DGA
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg - A History of Violence
Peter Jackson - King Kong
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg - Munich

SAG Ensemble
A History of Violence
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale

By the way...

12th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will be announced live on TNT and E! Entertainment Television on Thursday, January 5, 2006 at 9:07am EST/6:07 am PST.

Directors Guild - Announcement of the five nominees for the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film for 2005. Thursday, January 5, 2006 - 10:00 AM (PST)

The others don't have times.

Final Predictions:

PGA
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
King Kong
Walk the Line

alt: Crash

DGA
Woody Allen, Match Point
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spileberg, Munich

alt: Peter Jackson, King Kong

WGA
Original:
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
Mrs. Henderson Prsents
The Squid and the Whale

alt: Cinderella Man

Adapted:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
A History of Violence
Munich
Syriana

alt: King Kong

SAG
Actor:
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Phillip Seymor Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Pheonix, Walk the Line
David Straithairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

alt: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Actress:
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

alt: Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

alt : Donald Sutherland, Pride & Prejudice

Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

alt: Catharine Keener, Capote

Ensemble:
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
The Squid And The Whale

alt: Walk the Line

WGA!!!

LOS ANGELES, NEW YORK -- The Writers Guild of America, west and The Writers Guild of America, East have announced nominations for outstanding achievement in writing for the screen during the 2005 season.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

CINDERELLA MAN, Screenplay by Cliff Hollingsworth and Akiva Goldsman, Story by Cliff Hollingsworth, Universal Pictures

CRASH, Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis, Lions Gate Films

THE 40 YEAR-OLD VIRGIN, Written by Judd Apatow & Steve Carell, Universal Pictures

GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK, Written by George Clooney & Grant Heslov, Warner Independent Pictures

THE SQUID AND THE WHALE, Written by Noah Baumbach, Samuel Goldwyn Films



ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Based on the Short Story by Annie Proulx, Focus Features

CAPOTE, Screenplay by Dan Futterman, Based on the Book by Gerald Clarke,

Sony Pictures Classics

THE CONSTANT GARDENER, Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine, Based on the Novel by John le Carré, Focus Features

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, Screenplay by Josh Olson, Based on the Graphic Novel by John Wagner and Vince Locke, New Line Cinema

SYRIANA, Written by Stephen Gaghan, Based on the Book "See No Evil" by Robert Baer, Warner Bros. Pictures



Films eligible for a Writers Guild Award were produced signatory to the Writers Guild minimum basic agreement, and released in the year 2005 under the jurisdiction of Writers Guild of America, East and west and affiliate guilds in Australia, Canada, French Canada, Great Britain, Ireland, and New Zealand. There were 195 films eligible for nomination in the categories of Original Screenplay (108) and Adapted Screenplay (87).

The 2006 Writers Guild Awards will take place Saturday, February 4, 2006, in Los Angeles at The Hollywood Palladium and simultaneously in New York at The Waldorf=Astoria. For further information about the Writers Guild Awards, please call the WGAw Public Affairs Department at 323-782-4574 (West Coast show) or WGAE at 212-767-7800 (East Coast show) or visit our Web sites: http://www.wga.org and http://www.wgaeast.org.


****************************************************************************************************

First impression: No Munich, Match point, Walk the line or Kong...

I KNEW 40 Year Old Virgin would go in!!! The WGA likes to surprise with well-received comedies from novice writers that wouldn't get recognition elsewhere (Mean Girls, Greek Wedding, even Garden State if you consider it a comedy).

Walk the Line and Kong are no surprises.

No Munich is SHOCKING.

No Match Point is surprising.

Yay for A History of Violence and 40-Year-Old Virgin.

I didn't expect Kong to be nominated. But Munich. And Match Point. Argh. Yey for 40 Year Old Virgin and History of Violence.

The Constant Gardener and A History of Violence have been doing so consistently well in all these precursors, that I think one of them will manage a best picture nomination, just not sure which one.

PGA!!

Brokeback
Capote
Crash
Good night, and good luck
Walk the line


Capote! And Crash is getting a BP nomination...

Booo I made a thread...

3 or 4 of these will get BP.

Now it all depends on DGA.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA
ANNOUNCES NOMINEES AND PRODUCERS
FOR THE 2006 PGA AWARDS

Sunday, January 22nd at The Universal Hilton

Wednesday, January 4th, 2006 (Los Angeles, CA)-- The Producers Guild of America is pleased to announce the nominated productions and eligible producers for the 2006 Producers Guild Awards, hosted by Intel and sponsored by Volvo. The event will take place on Sunday, January 22nd at the Universal Hilton.

Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award
Theatrical Motion Pictures

Brokeback Mountain
(Focus Features)
Diana Ossana
James Schamus

Capote
(Sony Pictures Classic)
Caroline Baron
William Vince
Michael Ohoven

Crash
(Lions Gate Films)
Paul Haggis
Cathy Schulman

Good Night, and Good Luck
(Warner Independent Pictues)
Grant Heslov

Walk the Line
(Twentieth Century Fox
James Keach
Cathy Konrad

Producer of the Year Award
Animated Film

Chicken Little
(Disney)
Randy Fullmer

Madagascar
(DreamWorks)
Mireille Soria

Robots
(Twentieth Century Fox)
Jerry Davis
John C. Donkin
William Joyce

Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride
(Warner Bros.)
Tim Burton
Allison Abbate

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
(DreamWorks)
(Credits are pending arbitration)

WOW! No Munich or Kong. Capote?!

No PGA nom for Munich, that is SHOCKING!!! It's the kind of film PGA should have gone for. I don't see how Munich wins the BP oscar.Now there is a good chance Munich won't even be nominated, which is sad because its the best film of the year. I guess congratulations go to Capote, not sure how that film got a PGA nom.