Looking the posts above, here is a quick summary

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[table][row]MOST MENTIONS[row]Munich [row]Walk the Line [row]Brokeback Mountain [row]Good Night, and Good Luck. [row]PRETTY MUCH 3 WAY TIE IN MENTIONS FOR 5TH PLACE[row]King Kong [row]Memoirs of the Geisha[row]The New World [row]*******************************************************[row]Match Point [row]Pride and Prejudice[row]Producers[row]Crash[row]TO LEAST MENTIONS[/table]

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Hehe no Oscar thread would be complete without Raffiki doubting a Peter Jackson movie. It happened non-stop with Lord of the Rings, and here it is again.

I'm feeling:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
King Kong
Munich
Walk the Line

If so, what a diverse list of nominees.

I still really don't know. I have my doubts about both Kong and Brokeback.

I think it'll be:

Walk the Line
Good Night and Good Luck
New World
Munich...

...and some blaring suprise. lately they've been taking to shoving one *smaller* movie in there, like Sideways, LiT, Pianist, Gosford Park, etc. I'd give it to Brokeback except for with Narnia's latest push its apparent Hollywood doesn't want to alienate the only people still buying movie tickets anymore. I'm going to profer up something much smaller. Good Night and Good Luck could already be it, but this year the entire office is slow, and the quality of dramas/Oscar bate has thus far been disheartening, so I am guessing we have yet to see or hear from what will eventually be the fifth entry.

Good Night, And Good Luck
Munich
Memoirs of a Geisha
Match Point
King Kong

Unless Munich seems rushed, I think this will blow everything else out of the water. If you put Good Night, And Good Luck in any other year, it has a great chance to win, but not this year. Match Point might be the sleeper. I also think Walk the Line will be hurt by last year's Ray.

Today, on Sunday, I saw 2 different Munich tv commercial for about 15 seconds each. One at the end of 60 Minutes on CBS and one during Grey's Anatomy on ABC. Touting its late December start date - forget if it is the 23 or 25?

Looks like they are bringing this around very slowly.

maybe Match Point or Pride & Prejudice?

King Kong will be looked upon as a very good blockbuster, not a oscar worthy picture such as LOTR. It'll need some f'in amazing word to get an oscar nod for best picture, almost to LOTR's level.

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Munich
3. Walk the Line
4. The New World
5. Good Night And Good Luck

Alternates:
1. Match Point
2. Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Cinderella Man
4. Syrianna
5. Crash

Predictions:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Walk the Line
3. Cinderella Man (don't underestimate Universal's aggresive campaign, especially since they're not campaigning for Munich)
4. Munich
5. Match Point (British + Woody Allen vote)

Alternates:
1. Crash
2. Syriana
3. Good Night, and Good Luck
4. The New World
5. Memoirs of a Geisha

But they are. It's just Spielberg and his production pals that aren't.

(It was news to me, too.)

I don;t think they have to, I mean Munich has more buzz then any other film and what 3 people have seen it. Its hard this buzz for awhile. As Ebert said, everyone is waiting for Munich.

Munich
Match Point
Memoirs
New World
King Kong

that pretty much covers everything ive been unfairly behind at one point (+ Munich). I think I'll keep that as my final say.

I'm still...

Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Good Night, and Good Luck.
(-) Memoirs of a Geisha

(+) The New World & King Kong (neck and neck)
(+) Capote
Match Point

I'm not sold on Cinderella Man's new campaign. I saw the film way back when. I just think Walk the Line is in it's "spot".

For god sake's tell me when you've seen Capote, I'm desperate to hear what you thought of it.

I didn't get to see it on Sunday.

I rented Mr. and Mrs. Smith and March of the Penguins instead and stayed home (both were great, except the last third of Mr. and Mrs. Smith doesn't quite work).

Maybe i'll go see Capote instead of Narnia.

maybe you wont:mad::o

Please for the love of cinema do. If there's a single movie that's come out this year that I believe you could call truly great, Capote is it.

did this brake your Oscar viewing schedule already, are you going to publish an update?

Ummm... I didn't understand what you said
I don't think I doubted ROTK or was that sarcastic?
But, ya I doubt King Kong's chances alot.

but as others have been getting hurt as more reviews have come out

maybe King Kong will get helped as more, especially if great or very good, reviews come in for it.

Maybe.

I have to do a lot of planning for my job, so sometimes I feel like just "flowin'" or whatever the kids call it these days.

can't you just ask your boss for a lighter work load until after the Oscars?

Well my contract ends at the end of March so I will get my wish!

Kong's early response is warm. I don't see it happening, just because the Academy really shys away from fantasy action (with few exceptions). And with Sith this year (which I didn't like all that much, but wasn't horrendous, and was well received) I'm not sure the Academy wants to open the door to the special effects extravaganzas and have to pick between which of the two to recognize.

I sense Match Point.



You make it sound like you remember strolling the grounds of the World's Fair.

Munich is hitting, so any shot Kong had (not much) kinda flew out the window.